Coronavirus Status Updates

[johnrr6]

I personally have always thought that case numbers we’re just one indicator and actually one of the least effective indicators of seriousness.

To me, and trust me I’m just a retired ex infantry grunt so science is akin to science fiction to me....But to me, the important statistics we’re simply how many people were getting sick enough to be admitted to hospitals, how many people ultimately died and what is the hospital/medical facilities capability to handle this....

Sure cases and tests are important....testing far more in my mind

But I am a bottom line guy and RELEVANT stats are what I want to know on a daily basis instead of state websites that are convoluted, quote case numbers only, and leave out so many of the statistics that I would want to know if I were in charge of fighting this.

TL : DR Deaths, Hospitalizations, Beds Occupied and Open Hospital Beds, Beds Occupied and Open ICU Beds, Ventilators available and ventilators in use, Manpower/staffing levels at all medical facilities, personal protective equipment levels available

Show me all of these stats on a daily basis and I would be able to tell you exactly how serious the situation is....And more importantly shift available resources to deal with it.

I frankly haven’t seen a lot of that and it surprises me.

 

[johnrr6]

I live in Virginia and I tried to acquire the statistics that I thought were important and it’s been an absolute struggle. Although I did get the Virginia Hospital Association’s website director to pretty much agree with me and they started posting the kind of hospital stats needed. But even that was an absolute bad snapshot of overall capabilities in Virginia as it did not include any of the federal hospitals or facilities in my state. Military base facilities, Portsmouth Naval Hospital, one of the biggest in the United States, any of the Veterans Administration hospitals or facilities, for example, the Hampton Virginia Veteran’s Administration hospital is one of the largest in the nation. Yet all of the military personnel and Veterans living here count as normal Virginia population stats.....And it became quite clear to me that none of those hospital capabilities were included in ANY overall state planning or reporting. Hell, I couldn’t even get anyone in the state to verify whether Military or veteran’s administration TESTING was being included.
Incredible...... as an old soldier I have to tell you that the after action report on this Pandemic is going to be blistering. And we better use the “lessons learned” to tighten this crap up.

 

[BigMacHusker]

I personally have always thought that case numbers we’re just one indicator and actually one of the least effective indicators of seriousness.

To me, and trust me I’m just a retired ex infantry grunt so science is akin to science fiction to me....But to me, the important statistics we’re simply how many people were getting sick enough to be admitted to hospitals, how many people ultimately died and what is the hospital/medical facilities capability to handle this....

Sure cases and tests are important....testing far more in my mind

But I am a bottom line guy and RELEVANT stats are what I want to know on a daily basis instead of state websites that are convoluted, quote case numbers only, and leave out so many of the statistics that I would want to know if I were in charge of fighting this.

TL : DR Deaths, Hospitalizations, Beds Occupied and Open Hospital Beds, Beds Occupied and Open ICU Beds, Ventilators available and ventilators in use, Manpower/staffing levels at all medical facilities, personal protective equipment levels available

Show me all of these stats on a daily basis and I would be able to tell you exactly how serious the situation is....And more importantly shift available resources to deal with it.

I frankly haven’t seen a lot of that and it surprises me.

You may be just a retired ex infantry grunt, but this post provides more common sense and actual analysis than many of the experts and talking heads. We get inundated with headlines and numbers completely lacking in even a little bit of analysis, no one even knows what half of it actually means. I think we need to go back to the beginning and put the military completely in charge of this.

If you want to see what it looks like to have that data look at this site from CO https://public.tableau.com/profile/cocdphe.svc#!/vizhome/Colorado_COVID19_Data/CO_Home, it becomes easy to see how borderline worthless the known case count numbers now are once you have all of the data.

 

[Californication]

I think the number dying is important, of course, but to me another important factor will be the long term health issues of those that don't die but are affected for life, especially in the younger population.. Not a lot if good info on this yet, at least that I've seen.

 

[HuskerSuperGenius]

I think the number dying is important, of course, but to me another important factor will be the long term health issues of those that don't die but are affected for life, especially in the younger population.. Not a lot if good info on this yet, at least that I've seen.

How could there be since Covid has only been here since January?

If you want to know about "Long term" come back and ask the board in 2026 or 2030?

GBR

 

[HuskerSuperGenius]

Remember how this should work:

Getting a "Covid test" in asymptomatic people, is actually a "Screening Test" for the disease.

It has 10-30% FALSE POSITIVE and about 1-2 % false negative rate, just as a Screening test should.

If you test Positive, you should have further testing to confirm or deny the presence of the illness; not go straight into "quarantine", IF we were treating this like any other infectious disease.

Then we would find out that very few Positive screening tests actually go on to have the illness, perhaps 10%.

Your Coronavirus Test Is Positive. Maybe It Shouldn’t Be. (Published 2020)

The usual diagnostic tests may simply be too sensitive and too slow to contain the spread of the virus.

www.nytimes.com

Finally, what we should really care about is just how deadly is this illness, now that we are 8 months into collecting data about it. This is from the CDC in the last week:

As you can see, Covid is far, far less lethal in all but the > 70+ years old population than we were first lead to believe.

Lockdowns
Masks
Social Distancing

All of this is to "stop the spread" (no it doesn't but thats a topic for another time), it has NO EFFECT on the lethality of the virus if you get it.

And clearly this is NOT SARS, NOT Ebola, or any other sever pathogen.

SO we need to let me into Memorial Stadium to let me see my beloved Huskers this year!!!!

GBR

 

[Californication]

How could there be since Covid has only been here since January?

If you want to know about "Long term" come back and ask the board in 2026 or 2030?

GBR

They are starting to see potential long term issues with the heart, lungs and brain. You don't have to wait 30 years to see if organs are damaged..

 

[HuskerSuperGenius]

They are starting to see potential long term issues with the heart, lungs and brain. You don't have to wait 30 years to see if organs are damaged..

My only difference with your statement is the use of the phrase "long term".

Yes, they maybe seeing issues after the acute infection.

This however is common after many acute, severe infections in the first 3-6 months after said infection.
These changes which are often undetectable at 1-5 years after the infection.
1-5 years would be "long term" which is my point.

All the best.

 

[joncarl]

CDC study on COVID-19 in kids bolsters case for elementary school reopening

 

[BigMacHusker]

They are starting to see potential long term issues with the heart, lungs and brain. You don't have to wait 30 years to see if organs are damaged..

Flu Symptoms & Complications

Know the common symptoms of flu and possible complications.

www.cdc.gov

Flu Complications

Most people who get flu will recover in a few days to less than two weeks, but some people will develop complications (such as pneumonia) as a result of flu, some of which can be life-threatening and result in death.

Sinus and ear infections are examples of moderate complications from flu, while pneumonia is a serious flu complication that can result from either influenza virus infection alone or from co-infection of flu virus and bacteria. Other possible serious complications triggered by flu can include inflammation of the heart (myocarditis), brain (encephalitis) or muscle (myositis, rhabdomyolysis) tissues, and multi-organ failure (for example, respiratory and kidney failure). Flu virus infection of the respiratory tract can trigger an extreme inflammatory response in the body and can lead to sepsis, the body’s life-threatening response to infection. Flu also can make chronic medical problems worse. For example, people with asthma may experience asthma attacks while they have flu, and people with chronic heart disease may experience a worsening of this condition triggered by flu.

 

[Goal-line]

I personally have always thought that case numbers we’re just one indicator and actually one of the least effective indicators of seriousness.

To me, and trust me I’m just a retired ex infantry grunt so science is akin to science fiction to me....But to me, the important statistics we’re simply how many people were getting sick enough to be admitted to hospitals, how many people ultimately died and what is the hospital/medical facilities capability to handle this....

Sure cases and tests are important....testing far more in my mind

But I am a bottom line guy and RELEVANT stats are what I want to know on a daily basis instead of state websites that are convoluted, quote case numbers only, and leave out so many of the statistics that I would want to know if I were in charge of fighting this.

TL : DR Deaths, Hospitalizations, Beds Occupied and Open Hospital Beds, Beds Occupied and Open ICU Beds, Ventilators available and ventilators in use, Manpower/staffing levels at all medical facilities, personal protective equipment levels available

Show me all of these stats on a daily basis and I would be able to tell you exactly how serious the situation is....And more importantly shift available resources to deal with it.

I frankly haven’t seen a lot of that and it surprises me.

Yesterday, I attended a memorial service for a very dear friend who died from the virus. That is the only stat I need to know with regard to the seriousness of this pandemic.

 

[Goal-line]

The global Covid-19 death toll has crossed one million -- and the United States accounts for more than 20%.

CNN - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

View the latest news and breaking news today for U.S., world, weather, entertainment, politics and health at CNN.com.

www.cnn.com

 

[BleedinHuskerRed]

The global Covid-19 death toll has crossed one million -- and the United States accounts for more than 20%.

CNN - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

View the latest news and breaking news today for U.S., world, weather, entertainment, politics and health at CNN.com.

www.cnn.com

I saw on the BBC news last night that the U.S. is in the top 3 countries “worst hit,” along with India and Brazil. (Though to be fair, I’m not sure what stats went into “worst hit.” Death rate? Cases per capita?)

 

[Goal-line]

I saw on the BBC news last night that the U.S. is in the top 3 countries “worst hit,” along with India and Brazil. (Though to be fair, I’m not sure what stats went into “worst hit.” Death rate? Cases per capita?)

Being in the top three of any of those virus stats is not good.

 

[Huskerwisdom]

Being in the top three of any of those virus stats is not good.

Pretty much none of those statistics are a meaningful apples to apples comparison.

for instance, with cases alone. We test more than any other large country, we also test using tests that are far more sensitive than any other country (including positives that other countries consider negatives). European countries (Spain and now Belgium) are limiting cases to those that have lower cycles to produce a test positive and to those who have clinical significance and aren't just a positive test score.

Pointed this out in the other thread, but out of the 50K positive tests (and likely more by now) from college campuses who're reporting them, there have been only 2 hospitalizations. In what world are those 50K tests considered "cases"?