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Coronavirus Status Updates
- Thread starter BigRedMax
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@Goal-line, Truth is we have more cases, each day or week we have more and more cases, we have new high's over last time, that is what a pandemic is about. We will reach a point of burnout and the case numbers will eventually go down. No argument there.
Touting the case numbers is now ad-nauseam.
Spain, a country who is touted for having the some of the best mask wearing around is having a second round wave of cases nearly equal to their first round. However, their deaths are significantly different this time. As it spreads throughout the world we will see cases, but I fail to see any hope that with human interventions we will eradicate the disease, only slow its spread.
Touting the case numbers is now ad-nauseam.
Touting the case numbers is now ad-nauseam.
Spain, a country who is touted for having the some of the best mask wearing around is having a second round wave of cases nearly equal to their first round. However, their deaths are significantly different this time. As it spreads throughout the world we will see cases, but I fail to see any hope that with human interventions we will eradicate the disease, only slow its spread.
Touting the case numbers is now ad-nauseam.
Slowing the spread is a step in the right direction.
@Goal-line Touting the numbers gowingup....ad nauseam, not step in right direction. Hit us back up when the numbers start to go down. Now that will be something to shout from the roof-tops. 
In the meantime.........pay attention.@Goal-line Touting the numbers gowingup....ad nauseam, not step in right direction. Hit us back up when the numbers start to go down. Now that will be something to shout from the roof-tops.
Pay attention to things like this....Covid related deaths of despair 75000 people are estimated to die from
What you need to know
spectrumnews1.com
What you need to know
Projected Deaths of Despair Due to COVID-19
The virus may also have a deadly impact on mental health.
spectrumnews1.com
Cases are an incredibly poor metric and here's why:
- Age and relative health of the person with the positive case makes a huge difference. For people less than 50 it's about as dangerous as the regular flu. For those under 30 it's less dangerous than the flu, for those of college age and down they are more likely to die of, well, anything else.
- Testing specifications vary widely. In some cases in the US, we are testing and calling positive tests that wouldn't be considered positive ANYWHERE (at least most places, none should could a positive test with that many cycles required) as the test is so sensitive to declare positive someone who has long since beaten the virus, or has a case so mild that they'd never be symptomatic and could never spread it
- Even beyond testing specifications, testing numbers are important. We've tested more than any big country per capita now, but it's just producing meaningless numbers (the 30-40K college students with 0 hospitalizations as case in point!)
This is all theater, though. Once this hits 1% of a population in an area, no level of track and trace will work, and while masks may help a bit, the ridiculous claims I've seen are counterproductive.. It's going to follow Farr's law and the Hope-Simpson model and go through the world. The only question is how much damage it does, and the hard lockdowns are setting up the world for lots of cancer deaths, famine, and other diseases (not to mention OD's and suicides as well).
We're going to continue to see "reported" deaths for a while as we continue to declare any death with any relation to Covid to be a Covid death, but the reality is that hospitalizations across the country have plummeted and deaths by actual date have plummeted as well. It's over, except for the ridiculous "cases"
- Age and relative health of the person with the positive case makes a huge difference. For people less than 50 it's about as dangerous as the regular flu. For those under 30 it's less dangerous than the flu, for those of college age and down they are more likely to die of, well, anything else.
- Testing specifications vary widely. In some cases in the US, we are testing and calling positive tests that wouldn't be considered positive ANYWHERE (at least most places, none should could a positive test with that many cycles required) as the test is so sensitive to declare positive someone who has long since beaten the virus, or has a case so mild that they'd never be symptomatic and could never spread it
- Even beyond testing specifications, testing numbers are important. We've tested more than any big country per capita now, but it's just producing meaningless numbers (the 30-40K college students with 0 hospitalizations as case in point!)
This is all theater, though. Once this hits 1% of a population in an area, no level of track and trace will work, and while masks may help a bit, the ridiculous claims I've seen are counterproductive.. It's going to follow Farr's law and the Hope-Simpson model and go through the world. The only question is how much damage it does, and the hard lockdowns are setting up the world for lots of cancer deaths, famine, and other diseases (not to mention OD's and suicides as well).
We're going to continue to see "reported" deaths for a while as we continue to declare any death with any relation to Covid to be a Covid death, but the reality is that hospitalizations across the country have plummeted and deaths by actual date have plummeted as well. It's over, except for the ridiculous "cases"
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In many places we're hitting the point at which the false positive problem is overwhelming the positive percentages that are being seen.
Your Coronavirus Test Is Positive. Maybe It Shouldn’t Be. (Published 2020)
The usual diagnostic tests may simply be too sensitive and too slow to contain the spread of the virus.
Headline is hilarious "too slow to contain the spread of the virus".. lol, we had a ton more cases in NY at the beginning of the outbreak here than anyone could have ever captured. We weren't going to "contain", and couldn't with the huge numbers of asymptomatic people we're seeing now -- indicating that it was likely bouncing around far further than the NYTimes wants to admit here
Your Coronavirus Test Is Positive. Maybe It Shouldn’t Be. (Published 2020)
The usual diagnostic tests may simply be too sensitive and too slow to contain the spread of the virus.www.nytimes.com
Headline is hilarious "too slow to contain the spread of the virus".. lol, we had a ton more cases in NY at the beginning of the outbreak here than anyone could have ever captured. We weren't going to "contain", and couldn't with the huge numbers of asymptomatic people we're seeing now -- indicating that it was likely bouncing around far further than the NYTimes wants to admit here
Notice how everyone quit talking about "flattening the curve"? That's exactly what happened in the Southern states. We should've been hearing about the disconnect between the surge in case counts that came along with a massive increase in testing capacity as well as drastically improved health outcomes, instead we shifted the narrative to the known case count endgame in order to continue telling them they were doing it wrong. Now we are moving into the ridiculous "this all could have been prevented" phase, it just completely defies logic. No one has to have any type of degree at all to figure this out.
The peak in the S states encompassed a much larger population base. Testing and case counts surged way past the initial wave in the NE states, meanwhile hospitalizations peak at the same level and deaths at about half the initial rate. A quick narrative shift turns a positive into a negative.
@Huskerwisdom
***To add to that a PCR test does not indicate dead vs alive RNA from what I understand. Nor does it indicate if you are shedding. If you have a common cold and three weeks ago you had CV19, you could hypothetically still test positive. While you are no longer a threat in some areas you would still have to isolate for 14 days
***I thought I was the only one who saw the 1% issue. Interesting in Spains second wave is where they hit 1% and the inflection point of the second wave coincides within a week.[/QUOTE]
***To add to that a PCR test does not indicate dead vs alive RNA from what I understand. Nor does it indicate if you are shedding. If you have a common cold and three weeks ago you had CV19, you could hypothetically still test positive. While you are no longer a threat in some areas you would still have to isolate for 14 days
***I thought I was the only one who saw the 1% issue. Interesting in Spains second wave is where they hit 1% and the inflection point of the second wave coincides within a week.[/QUOTE]
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I think the most susceptible among us likely perished in the first wave, accounting for fewer hosp's and deaths in this current surge.
I think this will smolder out.
I think masking protocols are OK, and will stay in place through the spring. Another positive from that, will be much fewer influenza cases.
I think this will smolder out.
I think masking protocols are OK, and will stay in place through the spring. Another positive from that, will be much fewer influenza cases.
I hope you’re right, Doc!
It's called Farr's Law. We talked about it in March that this is how pandemics work. But unfortunately everyone seemed to forget.
But because both influenza and COVID are picking off the same susceptible group, greater COVID deaths mean lower flu deaths = similar number of deaths. And lower flu deaths mean a larger group susceptible to COVID and greater COVID deaths.
