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Coronavirus Status Updates

Husker Country Doc said:
I can't back it up, but I think the US has had such a worse problem with COVID than other countries, is because we have a higher rate of overweight and obesity,
Click to expand...

I think there is that. And it is probably part of the equation but I also think that it is almost a cultural thing in the United States that has caused our numbers to be much higher.

The US always been a country full of people that are fiercely independent and will go to great lengths to protect their personal freedoms. There is a strong distrust of government, hell, of any “authority“ itself and we have a VERY independent nature. Something like a phone tracking app will NEVER be widely accepted or used. We don’t like to depend on “government” to control aspects of or daily lives. These things have all combined to make us a very unique, strong and adaptive people.

But at the same time prove to be negative values when it comes to fighting something like a virus. Contrast the United States with the social European countries who depend on government much much more than we do, or a Chinese authoritarian government and there’s no way we can compare favoably in methods that will work.

We will just never allow them..... its that simple. It’s probably one of those few times in history were being an American is actually a little bit of a disadvantage.

I’ll take the disadvantage......
 

Husker Country Doc said:
  • 18 out of 62 ICU beds available (~71 % in use)
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Do you have a “surge“ ICU capacity?? I live in Virginia and I just dug up our stats and we are at 77% ICU bed capacity but 51% ICU bed Capacity when ”surge” beds are taken into account.

also...out of curiosity is there a general accepted overall percentage (best planning estimate) for the percentage of Covid 19 admissions that turn into ICU cases

I did 25 in the Army and my last few years worked some pretty high level plans (not bad for a dumb old Infantry grunt) but anyway, Personnel were always the biggest worry.

you could have adequate bullets, beans, blankets, gas and spare parts.

But if you didn’t have enough people...it all didn’t mean a damn.

are their National Guard or Reserve Medical Units that can be called up?

Is Offutt AFB Hospital or the Veterans Administration facilities being used in planning calculations?

I asked that question here in Virginia (since we have a TON of military facilities) to our state folks and got a blank stare. Bottom line is no...which blows my mind...

How can you fight a “war” when you don’t even know how much ammo you have.

the whole response has been a kludged together badly coordinated shambles. The After Action Reviews on our coordinated efforts during our nations response will be BLISTERING!
 
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johnrr6 said:
Do you have a “surge“ ICU capacity?? I live in Virginia and I just dug up our stats and we are at 77% ICU bed capacity but 51% ICU bed Capacity when ”surge” beds are taken into account.

also...out of curiosity is there a general accepted overall percentage (best planning estimate) for the percentage of Covid 19 admissions that turn into ICU cases

I did 25 in the Army and my last few years worked some pretty high level plans (not bad for a dumb old Infantry grunt) but anyway, Personnel were always the biggest worry.

you could have adequate bullets, beans, blankets, gas and spare parts.

But if you didn’t have enough people...it all didn’t mean a damn.

are their National Guard or Reserve Medical Units that can be called up?

Is Offutt AFB Hospital or the Veterans Administration facilities being used in planning calculations?

I asked that question here in Virginia (since we have a TON of military facilities) to our state folks and got a blank stare. Bottom line is no...which blows my mind...

How can you fight a “war” when you don’t even know how much ammo you have.

the whole response has been a kludged together badly coordinated shambles. The After Action Reviews on our coordinated efforts during our nations response will be BLISTERING!
Click to expand...

The usual "surge capacity" is to move patients to the larger cities that have bigger hospitals and thus more ICU capacity. The would be Lincoln and Omaha, then on to Mayo Clinic. We are NOT full here in Rochester, with significant ICU capacity both beds, and personnel.

Small community hospitals were never meant to handle critical care patients in large numbers but rather triage them on to other facilities as needed, defined by level of care required by those patients. Small Community hospitals do not have 24 hour coverage with pulmonary, critical care , cardiac, nephrology and infectious disease specialists.

So critically ill Covid patients would be sent to Lincoln, Omaha, Kansas City, Mayo Clinic, etc that have that staffing capability. People in "ICU" in small community often are at worst "mild to moderately ill" and in the ICU so that they get the absolute best care that hospital has to offer. If they are truly critically ill from Covid, they will usually move on up the chain as I have described.

All the best.

PS: Tricounty Public Health as of Oct. 19th reports "30 new cases in Buffalo County NE." With just short of 50,000 citizens in Buffalo county as of 2019, thats a rate of 0.0006 of the citizens infected!

Perspective is everything with this illness!
 
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I guess what I am looking for is...

Based on overall avaiilabily of medical resources...

is this “surge“ the press keeps harping about causing anxiety in Nebraska?

Because here in Virginia our total case numbers have gone up from about 600-700 daily to close to 1000 daily. BUT there has NOT been virtually any increase in hospitalizations, deaths, ICU usage, available beds etc. in fact our medical ability seems to remain remarkably about the same whether we are in a “surge” or a “low point” Virginia is also testing an average of 20000 people a day. up from about 6000 a day in the last “surge”.

Most people around here are just shrugging at this latest “surge“ and say: “Kids are back in school....what do they expect?”

Because right now our facilities and personnel do not seem overtaxed at all.

oh and I know these numbers because just for the hell of it and I'm retired, with the time and to try to stay reasonably informed, I made a spreadsheet and a daily copy down all of the day‘s information released by our state department of health. So when I see all these claims of surge numbers and then I look at the spreadsheet. What the press is saying just does not match In so many instances. In fact many times I wonder if they’re pulling their facts out of thin air.
 
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Husker Country Doc said:
I can't back it up, but I think the US has had such a worse problem with COVID than other countries, is because we have a higher rate of overweight and obesity, and the comorbidities that go with that extra weight (htn, CAD, high chol, DM2, etc).
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Wrong!

Covid new cases 48% higher in the UK and 4x higher in the Netherlands than in the US when indexed to populations of those countries rather than just raw numbers of cases.
www.dailymail.co.uk

Daily covid infection rates higher in the UK, Europe, than in the US

The US is seeing the largest number of daily new cases, with more than 48,000 infections reported Sunday, but the proportions of populations of smaller countries getting infected are far greater.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk

And in my other post, death rates are in essence identical, and low, overall roughly 0.02%.
 
HuskerSuperGenius said:
To counter your "gloom and doom"; yes there are small numbers of people who get very sick from Covid.
There are small numbers of people who get very sick and die each year from Influenza.

But over all the chances of that remain very low compared ago the numbers who get Covid:

99.44% of U.S. COVID Cases are "Mild"

www.freerepublic.com www.freerepublic.com
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so, 1/3 of all our our total diagnosed COVID cases are still active? Maybe not using a blog on the free republic as a source of medical information would behoove a retired physician. While “world-o-meters” has done a nice job ballparking where we stand in terms of total casss and deaths, I dont think they have the nuance for a real time assessment of active or critical cases. Unless 1/3 of our cases really have occurred in roughly 14 days, which they haven’t.
 
HuskerSuperGenius said:
Wrong!

Covid new cases 48% higher in the UK and 4x higher in the Netherlands than in the US when indexed to populations of those countries rather than just raw numbers of cases.
www.dailymail.co.uk

Daily covid infection rates higher in the UK, Europe, than in the US

The US is seeing the largest number of daily new cases, with more than 48,000 infections reported Sunday, but the proportions of populations of smaller countries getting infected are far greater.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk

And in my other post, death rates are in essence identical, and low, overall roughly 0.02%.
Click to expand...

the us has 330 million people. 330 million x 0.02% is 66,000, or roughly a quarter of the people that have ALREADY died in the US of COVID. To quote yourself in your remark to to HCD, “WRONG”. Try again.
 




Chi-Town Cube said:
the us has 330 million people. 330 million x 0.02% is 66,000, or roughly a quarter of the people that have ALREADY died in the US of COVID. To quote yourself in your remark to to HCD, “WRONG”. Try again.
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You are right I am WRONG, I quoted TOO HIGH a death rate! Here is the correct one:
You will note that the Covid death rates are the same as previous flu epidemics in the 1950's and 1960's!!
No Lockdowns, masks or other scams then. Guess we were tougher then.........
Top USA Flu Pandemics:

1. 1918 USA Influenza Pandemic:
USA Population: 103,208,000
675,000 flu fatalities (est.) = 0.00654 fatalities per capita

2. 2020 USA COVID-19 Pandemic as of 10-19-2020:
USA Population: 331,002,651
225,222 COVID-19 fatalities = 0.000680 fatalities per capita

3. 1957-1958 USA Influenza Pandemic:
USA Population: 171,984,130
116,000 flu fatalities (est.) = 0.000675 fatalities per capita

4. 1968-1969 USA Influenza Pandemic:
USA Population: 200,706,052
100,000 flu fatalities (est.) = 0.000498 fatalities per capita

Sources:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/basics/past-pandemics.html

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


PS: Chi-Town Cube: Try 0.02 % of 330 Million again, your math aint so good :).
 
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HuskerSuperGenius said:
You are right I am WRONG, I quoted TOO HIGH a death rate! Here is the correct one:
You will note that the Covid death rates are the same as previous flu epidemics in the 1950's and 1960's!!
No Lockdowns, masks or other scams then. Guess we were tougher then.........
Top USA Flu Pandemics:

1. 1918 USA Influenza Pandemic:
USA Population: 103,208,000
675,000 flu fatalities (est.) = 0.00654 fatalities per capita

2. 2020 USA COVID-19 Pandemic as of 10-19-2020:
USA Population: 331,002,651
225,222 COVID-19 fatalities = 0.000680 fatalities per capita

3. 1957-1958 USA Influenza Pandemic:
USA Population: 171,984,130
116,000 flu fatalities (est.) = 0.000675 fatalities per capita

4. 1968-1969 USA Influenza Pandemic:
USA Population: 200,706,052
100,000 flu fatalities (est.) = 0.000498 fatalities per capita

Sources:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/basics/past-pandemics.html

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


PS: Chi-Town Cube: Try 0.02 % of 330 Million again, your math aint so good :).
Click to expand...

0.02% is 0.0002. Try again or maybe stop posting at 3AM. My math is fine. As you clearly revealed, 0.000680 is more than 3x larger than 0.02%.

Also, last time I checked COVID is still raging. At least it is here. Like the influenza pandemics of the past, this isn't ending in 2020. Assuming the actual number of Americans infected is 10X the reported 8 million the CFR is 0.2-0.3%, or roughly 1 in 300 to 1 in 500 case fatality rate. That says nothing to the number of people that get sick enough to require hospitalization which is many multiples of that and enough that the majority of medical admissions to my tertiary care hospital, at the present time, are due to COVID 19 respiratory failure.
 
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Chi-Town Cube said:
0.02% is 0.0002. Try again or maybe stop posting at 3AM. My math is fine. As you clearly revealed, 0.000680 is more than 3x larger than 0.02%.

Also, last time I checked COVID is still raging. At least it is here. Like the influenza pandemics of the past, this isn't ending in 2020. Assuming the actual number of Americans infected is 10X the reported 8 million the CFR is 0.2-0.3%, or roughly 1 in 300 to 1 in 500 case fatality rate. That says nothing to the number of people that get sick enough to require hospitalization which is many multiples of that and enough that the majority of medical admissions to my tertiary care hospital, at the present time, are due to COVID 19 respiratory failure.
Click to expand...

Yet you ignore:
1. Covid is 1/10 as deadly as the 1918 FLU.
2. Covid is roughly the same as the Flu outbreaks in the 1950's which did not cause the same craziness we see now.
3. Your highlighted part is also hyperbole as CDC has said the except for those over 70 or with multiple health issues, this disease is mild to asymptomatic.
 
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HuskerSuperGenius said:
Yet you ignore:
1. Covid is 1/10 as deadly as the 1918 FLU.
2. Covid is roughly the same as the Flu outbreaks in the 1950's which did not cause the same craziness we see now.
3. Your highlighted part is also hyperbole as CDC has said the except for those over 70 or with multiple health issues, this disease is mild to asymptomatic.
Click to expand...

Late to the dance here, trying to deal with a recent baby, subsequent divorce and bankruptcy (yes due to all the covid crap). I haven't posted here in a while, but I feel like I have to mention that, as the other poster said, this is FAR from over, and comparing it to other pandemics (that obviously have since ended) is ridiculous at this point. Give it another year or so and then you can have apples to apples comparisons.
I get it that a LOT of people feel this is way overblown, and some of that is probably true, but comparing it to problems that resolved 80 years ago doesn't bolster the argument much.
Stay safe (and of course GBR)
Scott in NY
 

Here's how the US stacks up on per capita deaths versus Western European countries (USA is the red line):

1603203995331.png


Sourced from here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 
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