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Questions for Native and Coronavirus discussion Thread
- Thread starter Native
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Doesn’t appear mosquitoes would be a vector.
What's your Vector Victor?
Just thought I would inject a little comedy to a serious topic.
If this thing was mosquito borne in addition to being contact and airborne from an aerosolized standpoint, it would be freaking nasty. The only good thing about it is it's hitting the Northern Hemisphere before the temps put us in full blown mosquito season.
Question for @Native
1) If social isolation was purely an attempt to flatten the curve where are we now on that curve?
2) Theoretically at some point if the assumption is that everyone is going to get COVID-19 ... don't we have to come out of the isolation to accomplish that ... I realize we are not technically isolated in some cabin up in the woods but depending how effective the isolationism is working this could delay some people for quite a long time.
3) I recognize that we are not going to return to the way things were prior in just one week ... but once these isolation orders are lifted could we see a spike in infections again?
1) If social isolation was purely an attempt to flatten the curve where are we now on that curve?
2) Theoretically at some point if the assumption is that everyone is going to get COVID-19 ... don't we have to come out of the isolation to accomplish that ... I realize we are not technically isolated in some cabin up in the woods but depending how effective the isolationism is working this could delay some people for quite a long time.
3) I recognize that we are not going to return to the way things were prior in just one week ... but once these isolation orders are lifted could we see a spike in infections again?
1) I don't think we really know. Any return to normal could cause a spike. The best case scenario is that there is an underestimate of the amount of asymptomatic cases and there will never be a surge. (I don't think that the case.)
2. All about ventilators. Also, if we "flatten the curve" we end up effectively lowering the R0, (measure of disease transference essentially.) R0<1 then transmission will dwindle out. Again, don't think that will be achieved. If gets leveled out then not everyone has to get it. That buys time to know about drugs, have Covid-19 included on respiratory panels for testing, and gives the vaccine makers a chance to develop something that has an effect.
3. See 1, I got carried away!
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How many coronavirus cases have been found in each U.S. state
Using data from the COVID Tracking Project, we’re following how each state is responding to COVID-19.
www.politico.com
Updates...
~472K tests (+ 300K since Saturday)
64180 positive
900 deaths
Mar 25 11:40 PM central.
Some observations and predictions:
On track for 1M tested, 100,000 cases, 1000 deaths by the end of March.
Also on track for 1M tests per week next week, maybe even 2M. That should at least double each of the first 2-3 weeks in April if the swab, tube and transport media supply can handle the testing volume in the US, not to mentin PPE. Up to 16 EUA’s now. Additional authorizations under some of those to broaden the access.
FDA allowing state labs to suddenly regulate tests within their state (ala NY state, who does their own rigorous certifications normally) inadvertently has burdened states unequipped or prepared to evaluate tests from every lab now applying for an EUA, as they struggle to increase their own testing capacity. In trying to broaden access, the FDA has essentially abdicated regulatory authority and punted it to the states that don’t have infrastructure or experience in regulating others vs. being regulated.
International demand for tests is extremely high as well, so it doesn’t appear that there will be a slow down in test production for the foreseeable future.
How many coronavirus cases have been found in each U.S. state
Using data from the COVID Tracking Project, we’re following how each state is responding to COVID-19.
Updates...
~472K tests (+ 300K since Saturday)
64180 positive
900 deaths
Mar 25 11:40 PM central.
Some observations and predictions:
On track for 1M tested, 100,000 cases, 1000 deaths by the end of March.
Also on track for 1M tests per week next week, maybe even 2M. That should at least double each of the first 2-3 weeks in April if the swab, tube and transport media supply can handle the testing volume in the US, not to mentin PPE. Up to 16 EUA’s now. Additional authorizations under some of those to broaden the access.
FDA allowing state labs to suddenly regulate tests within their state (ala NY state, who does their own rigorous certifications normally) inadvertently has burdened states unequipped or prepared to evaluate tests from every lab now applying for an EUA, as they struggle to increase their own testing capacity. In trying to broaden access, the FDA has essentially abdicated regulatory authority and punted it to the states that don’t have infrastructure or experience in regulating others vs. being regulated.
International demand for tests is extremely high as well, so it doesn’t appear that there will be a slow down in test production for the foreseeable future.
Our testing capabilities have surpassed anyone else's at this point (last I saw, German could do 15K a day, and South Korea can do 20K a day), and ours are supposed to be over 150K a day sometime next week. More data will help immensely as people are flying blind still which leads to more panic.
Even in NY Positives are running at under 30% and nationwide positive are less than 15% and I'm assuming most places are testing with pretty heavy symptoms. We really need to know what the general population looks like though, how many people who are asymptomatic have it in a random sampling. We're getting there -- I'm hopeful the NYers who've fled the city have the good sense to quarantine for 2 weeks (I know, that's asking a lot...)\
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Signed up for another blood donation at our local Red Cross (long time donor & O+) for tomorrow afternoon.
Kind of curious if they'll test for COVID-19 during the blood drive appointment ... does anyone know?
Kind of curious if they'll test for COVID-19 during the blood drive appointment ... does anyone know?
Really doubt they have that capability. Probably 25 more questions on the pre-quiz.
Hey @Native, the coronavirus evolution video you posted in the locked thread 
showed a figure in which the R0 in the US is way higher than in Italy or Spain (and higher than in most other countries). That surprised me, and is pretty damned scary. It would be nice to know whether that is based on older data, prior to isolation measures in the US, or whether that represents the current state of affairs.
showed a figure in which the R0 in the US is way higher than in Italy or Spain (and higher than in most other countries). That surprised me, and is pretty damned scary. It would be nice to know whether that is based on older data, prior to isolation measures in the US, or whether that represents the current state of affairs.
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So @TnHusker87 brings up an interesting question I really hadn't thought of before.
Regardless of transmission vehicle for the virus, if the virus like Covid 19 is present in an individual's blood, would that automatically mean you wouldn't want to use their blood for a transfusion to others? Wouldn't there also be antibodies in the blood that would make the transfusion potentially beneficial or am I taken a leap here that can't be taken?
