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Will Nebraska go 9-3 or 5-7?

Will Nebraska go 9-3 or 5-7

  • 9-3

    Votes: 31 40.8%

  • 5-7

    Votes: 45 59.2%
  • Total voters
    76

huskernut said:
Nothing about the question suggests the distribution of probability estimates would actually be bimodal.
Click to expand...

I ran the numbers using two sub-groups whereas Group A equals the Huskers playing the entire season with no major injuries to key players, and Group B equals the Huskers minus Adrian Martinez, Cam Jurgens, Jojo Domann, Ben Stille, and Cam Taylor-Britt. There is a 95% confidence interval that we will have a final regular season record that falls between 5-7 and 9-3. Due to the unusually large number of key players that were absent in Group B, there was a bimodal distribution of possible outcomes. Also, I'm full of $4!t....

This is what I'd expect to see on the Northwestern fan pages ... if they actually existed.

Awesome!

Fwiw, I do see the probability estimate as most likely being bi-modal: if we beat Illinois, we will likely have a very good year with 7 or more wins; if we don't, we won't. @Hville put some thought into picking those two possible outcomes because I also see those two records representing the outside range of probabilities. I'm not enough of a nerd to make up a formula to run the numbers, and I'm not enough of a fraud to pretend that I did, but ... I think that those records do fall close to the 2nd standard deviation of outcome distributions.
 



I think we will definitely be better, perhaps a 7-5 season. We've had a lot of close losses, and some slight improvement in a few areas (such as special teams) would get us a couple more wins. However, since 7-5 puts me smack dab in the middle of the poll choices, I'm going to go with the lower number of 5-7 until Frost proves otherwise. All of these years of losing has really beat down my yearly optimism and made me take more of a prove-it kind of approach.
 




Realistically, I think 4 or 5 wins. 6 or 7 would be a success in my book this year. If something significant happens with the team and 9 wins somehow happens then I think everyone is going to have a great offseason.
 
Hate to be the negative Nancy but 5-7 is more likely than 9-3. Poor coaching and QB play have held us back IMO. All our talent means nothing if we make stupid coaching coaching decisions, play for only one half, and shoot ourselves in the foot.

That all must change now.
 
Husker In Oklahoma said:
At this point, without further evidence, NU is easily closer to 5-7 than they are 9-3. I’m in agreement that the talent is there to win. Just have to see if they can kick in the door, or seriously put a dent into it. If the coaches can get these kids playing lights out, I mean, they could win lots of games. Certainly a possibility.
Click to expand...
Spot on. I say 7-5, but this team/staff is more apt to be 5-7 than 9-3
 
Middle-aged_Ball_Coach said:
I ran the numbers using two sub-groups whereas Group A equals the Huskers playing the entire season with no major injuries to key players, and Group B equals the Huskers minus Adrian Martinez, Cam Jurgens, Jojo Domann, Ben Stille, and Cam Taylor-Britt. There is a 95% confidence interval that we will have a final regular season record that falls between 5-7 and 9-3. Due to the unusually large number of key players that were absent in Group B, there was a bimodal distribution of possible outcomes. Also, I'm full of $4!t....

This is what I'd expect to see on the Northwestern fan pages ... if they actually existed.

Awesome!

Fwiw, I do see the probability estimate as most likely being bi-modal: if we beat Illinois, we will likely have a very good year with 7 or more wins; if we don't, we won't. @Hville put some thought into picking those two possible outcomes because I also see those two records representing the outside range of probabilities. I'm not enough of a nerd to make up a formula to run the numbers, and I'm not enough of a fraud to pretend that I did, but ... I think that those records do fall close to the 2nd standard deviation of outcome distributions.
Click to expand...
When and the hell did 7 wins become a very good year. Being as old as I am I refuse to fall in to the status quo of the last few years

win now win big or go home

Never thought I’d see Huskers fan’s especially a middle aged ball couch say. Come on team get 7 and it’s a great year
 



Middle-aged_Ball_Coach said:
I ran the numbers using two sub-groups whereas Group A equals the Huskers playing the entire season with no major injuries to key players, and Group B equals the Huskers minus Adrian Martinez, Cam Jurgens, Jojo Domann, Ben Stille, and Cam Taylor-Britt. There is a 95% confidence interval that we will have a final regular season record that falls between 5-7 and 9-3. Due to the unusually large number of key players that were absent in Group B, there was a bimodal distribution of possible outcomes. Also, I'm full of $4!t....

This is what I'd expect to see on the Northwestern fan pages ... if they actually existed.

Awesome!

Fwiw, I do see the probability estimate as most likely being bi-modal: if we beat Illinois, we will likely have a very good year with 7 or more wins; if we don't, we won't. @Hville put some thought into picking those two possible outcomes because I also see those two records representing the outside range of probabilities. I'm not enough of a nerd to make up a formula to run the numbers, and I'm not enough of a fraud to pretend that I did, but ... I think that those records do fall close to the 2nd standard deviation of outcome distributions.
Click to expand...
I think I'm right but it's hot and I don't have the energy to defend it, especially against such plausible sounding exposition, so I yield. :Biggrin::Cheers::Salute:
 
Last edited:

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