I think assuming we are doing everything at the last second is glass half empty. First, you are correct, Held does have great connections. The beauty of having those type of connections is you get to put some trust in the juco coach's opinion, because he has a relationship with that player. It may not be a solid as having our own staff member knowing the player, but it's far better than 'well, the kid camped with us as a junior'. That Juco coach knows his family, he knows his background, he's seen his work in the classroom and on the field. That's a huge advantage for us. Would I like to have it be our staff member who knows all of this? Of course, but that would mean spreading guys ridiculously thin, or hiring an even larger staff filled with 'analysts'. Held is an advantage for us that many schools don't have, so I'm glad we are making use of it.
As for the guys who were commits, then decommits, who replaced them? Did we upgrade with the replacement? Were there insurmountable grade issues we discovered? Were there character issues we discovered? Who else was offering them, and were they showing interest in those offers? What was their season/career like? Were they players who came on strong late? Finally, where did they go? My point being, just because we didn't spend a year or two getting to know a kid doesn't mean we weren't doing our job. There are always kids who come from out of the blue because they just explode late, and we aren't the only team that look for them or find them. There are also kids who we may lose interest in the more we get to know them or we see how they progress after they are offered/commit. How is Sorensen that much different than Aho? One was our first commit of the 2021 class, but was on his way out the door almost before we had our second. There was obviously a change of heart. It doesn't matter if it was us or him, just as it doesn't matter with Aho, there was a change and another player became the target.
You mentioned Pelini, the coach who seemed to be the master of leaving scholarships on the shelf because he didn't fill his classes. Personally, I'd much rather take a shot at a kid who has some talent, but may not be brimming with stability, than leave my roster with holes. Would you take a flyer on Mo Washington again? That kid made some mindblowing plays, and if we'd been lucky enough to have him settle in just a little, we could have had an elite talent. Instead we got a royal headache, but I'd still take a flyer on a kid of that talent level over tossing out scholarships to a local 3* TE who might make a fine blocker over his career. As cruel as it may seem, 3* TE isn't going anywhere, he's eating up that scholarship for 4 years. Elite, but unknown kid is far more likely to bailout if things aren't to his liking. Turnover sucks, unless you need scholarships to fill other areas, then you almost hope for it.
I also think you are pointing at several current recruiting/departure events, while ignoring the most glaring drivier of some of them, which is Covid. Homesickness is ALWAYS a risk, no matter the distance, but in a year like this, when the ability to connect with the staff, the trainers, your teammates, the local community, the student body, is completely changed, it becomes 10 times as bad. Couple that with the concern many of these kids likely have for family and friends back home, and it becomes crushing. I don't want to come across cranky, but you've jumped on the staff for all these recruiting troubles, tying departures to distance and/or a lack of relationship, but seem to be leaving out the one giant factor that we've never dealt with before. Gray to me sounds like a guy who has genuine concerns about something family related. He had a great relationship with the program, and was one of the strongest peer recruiters. Were we supposed to not go after a kid like that because there might be some crazy pandemic that jumps out and changes our entire world? Of course not, because we need studs, and we can't find enough of them in our own backyard. This could have been any player, even one in our own backyard who's family wasn't comfortable with their kid jumping into the risk of being on a campus with Covid.
I've read some comments that suggest Frost does things in his recruiting that are vastly different than some of the other staffs we've had. My question to those who seem to have trouble with that is: So? Tossing out the first class, which from the late start to the high ranking part was borderline miraculous, but hardly a model for consistency, are we disappointed with the talent on paper? Again, getting past the development discussion, are we unhappy with the guys we got, be it local or long distant talent? I'm not. I'm pretty impressed we bagged not only most of the top local guys we wanted, but pulled plenty of highly ranked players out of SEC country, and across the map (even from our rivals backyards). Yet all I read is second guessing. And exactly which players that some consider local did we miss on outside of this year that guys would say are 'must get'? Watts? Anyone else? If so, is it possible the coaches may not have seen those players as 'must get' as some of you? Maybe they didn't see the ceiling, or fit as being what they want, so they looked, and obviously found someone they preferred elsewhere. They didn't just leave the scholarship unused, they filled the need as they saw fit.
It's fine for us to speculate some, because this is a chat board and that's what it's designed for. What I think becomes problematic is when we make comments as fact. Unless someone here has a close relationship with someone in Frost's inner circle, not just someone who knows someone who washes the gear or helps in the A/V department, but is actually on the staff, then none of the assumptions are fact. 'That was a total shock to the staff and they are scrambling', gee, we've never heard that before. Do we think there was scrambling when Freeman or Gabbert bailed? We'd spent hundreds of hours hammering those relationships, yet they disappeared like a fart in the wind. I could easily say that there was panic in those staffs when kids bailed, and I'd probably be right, but I wouldn't have actually, real first hand knowledge that what I was saying was fact. I have always been impressed with many members here who have areas of expertise, but even those who have considerable amounts, I don't believe any are at the level of those we seem to see criticized or second guessed regularly. 'We can't miss on the local talent', well, we've gotten our share over the last several years, and yes, we've missed on a few, but name me a staff that didn't? If these guys blew people off like Pelini or Callahan was famous for, then go ahead and be critical, but from where I sit in the cheap seats, I'm seeing strong efforts to keep these guys around. If they get all moist thinking about Fleck love, or Hawkeye gear, that's life, I don't see a need to change our entire recruiting style to make those guys feel that much more 'special'. That type of thinking is what buried Bo in my mind. Focusing on a small group, hammering them hard, then hoping you don't get left at the alter has just as many risks as throwing a wide net. Until we can't land solid recruiting classes, I'm fine letting our guys work as they have.