Lot of great points being brought up in this thread.
- I think N2FL makes a great point about not vetting the recruits that well that commit late in the game. I think you've seen that play out in the 2018 class as so many of them left or were booted. Frost was just didn't have time to make sure the guys he was recruiting were going to stick around and be good fits.
- We have supposedly had superior talent to our West division rivals the past few years according to the rankings but that doesn't matter when you've had the attrition that Nebraska has had over the years. Look at our 2017 class and ask what good it does to have guys like Avery Roberts and Tristan Gebbia at the top of our rankings. Jaevon McQuitty or KJ Jr anyone? Far too many misses. The rankings matter only just so much as you can retain and develop them.
- For all the guys we've snagged in the Riley and Frost years we've missed so many of the ones that really mattered. Take the 2016 class for instance. We closed late on big targets like Matt Farniok, Lamar Jackson, and Pernell Jefferson. But we missed targets like WR Desmond Fitzpatrick (highly productive career at Louisville), LB David Reese (tackling machine and leader at Florida), ATH Isaiah Simmons (top 10 draft pick), and Noah Fant (no need to rehash). I think we even passed on OT Alaric Jackson (correct me if I'm wrong) in favor of Farniok. Now Jackson is an All-American candidate for our rival. Are we just not selecting correctly? Not developing? Or just grabbing the guys with big resumes who other coaches see through? Maybe all the above.
- I think there's something to be said for fit and attitude. Kansas State, Iowa, ISU, etc. have fielded much better teams than Nebraska the past 5 years with worse recruiting classes. Their guys are disciplined, fundamentally sound, and sacrifice their bodies to play physical on the field. It makes up for a lack of raw talent. I won't name names but I've seen too many high-star guys at NU refuse to lay the big hit or sell out to make a stop the past few years. They don't bleed red like so many of our former players did.
-Which brings me to my last point. Our slow start is particularly vexing because there is a bumper crop of local area recruits this year that Nebraska for the most part has failed to land. We snagged Teddy, Kpai, and Lutovsky but we've missed or will miss on countless others - Noel, Dickerson, Johnson, Travion Ford, TJ Bollers (most likely), Connor Colby, Riley Mahlman, Brody Brecht, Beau Stephens, Jeff Bowie, etc. - to division rivals. Local guys are more likely to stay because they're used to the midwest, the winters and the punishing style of football it takes to win in the Big 10. They're more likely to bleed scarlet and cream and sell out for the program.
I'm still optimistic because I do like the young talent on the roster and believe in Frost. I think he'll secure a good class in the end. But I definitely see the reasons for pessimism as well. Keep the faith.
I'm sure you feel the program is having more issues than normal, but I'm just not seeing it. The one year that looks really shaky was year 1, and we all know that because the staff got a late start, and had to lean on players they knew from prior recruiting efforts, and an area they have greater familiarity with, the overall results were not good. The following year was a step up, though we still lost some guys (Chase comes to mind). The reason appear to vary, but in most instances, These guys are leaving or getting the boot because of poor vetting. Chase had some depression/homesickness issues, and he's signed with I believe Portland State, so he may have realized big time football was more than he was prepared for. Is that a failure on the coaches part? Maybe, or maybe the kid didn't recognize the jump college was going to be. We also lost two of the 'Cams', but I recall one thinking he was going to get more time as a freshman, and left for greener pastures. The other I'm not sure has ended up anywhere. Both looked like excellent players, but apparently patience wasn't a virtue in at least one of the cases. Again, as a coach, I don't know what could be done to teach patience, but in my experience, a player has to see themselves as far better to not understand the guy who has been around a few years has an advantage. Woodyard I have no idea about other than our WR room has looked pretty pathetic the last couple of years, and the guy in charge of it is now gone. Pickering has too many behind the scenes drama to really understand what happened there, but it must have been substantial enough to put us without a kicker, and likely cost us at least 2 games. I have zero understanding of the issue, so I'm hard pressed to lay that on a coach. Bell, same spot as Woodyard, and he seemed long on attitude, and short on delivery. This one might be on Held, as I think he was the guy who had the relationship with the Juco coach. His film and ratings suggested he was a really good RB, but something never clicked.
Putting the defections on the staff for the 2017 misses ignores the fact that several of those guys just didn't fit the system, or weren't of a mindset to change in the manner that was expected. It's funny, in one breath I read guys who complained that Frost should have come in with a 'my way or the highway' attitude, and still others felt he didn't bend enough for the players. All that tells me is everyone has amazingly acute hindsight.
And seriously, if you are going to dredge up all the guys we've missed on that have gone on to have great careers with other teams, why not toss in Gale Sayers, Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith and Hatoli Ngata? All really liked us...right up until they didn't. With the exception of the guys who recently flaked, I'm actually pretty pleased with how we've worked the locals over the last few years. Don't get too caught up in the doom and gloom some are spouting. It's as dead a time a year as we've ever experienced, and people are going to analyze the crap out of stuff, which is fine, but we don't have much ability to change the perception with on campus visits, or games to showcase the opportunity. I haven't spent the time to learn about all these locals we don't have committed, but are any of them life long Hawkeye, Badger, Wildcat, Cyclone, Whatever fans? I've never understood the arrogance we as fans can have with our expectations for a kid to turn their backs on their favorite program just because we make an offer. Some do, and that's great, but plenty still want to chase the childhood dream as a Gopher...or whatever.
Keep in mind we are seeing a kid we thought was critical to land, ditch us for ASU, only to return to walk on. People don't realize how varying recruiting styles are. Some are pure used car, some are almost like evangelists. Others can walk into a room, all 5'9" of them, and act like they are Xerxes from 300, and that hooks some kids. I don't know what Scott does, but I'm betting it's pretty low key, but to the point. And don't put too much on losing a player to a school they have deep feelings for, like Watts. I have loved the Huskers my entire life, and I have my dad in the basketball HOF in Lincoln, but I promise you, my all time dream school was Duke, so if I'd been talented enough, I would have said 'see ya' to the Big Red and gone Blue Devil in a heartbeat (Think Bill Jackman). That wouldn't have been Iba's fault, it would have been a kid following a dream. That's what some players are doing, and we need to remember that.
