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2020 sports seasons from a guy who knows

Hville said:
This was my post on March 11th in the thread regarding a fanless spring game. Long before cancelations started. I still stand by it and might take it a step farther. This could have major impacts on sports as a whole going forward if we don't get our head around doom and glum reactions. Its not a popular statement or politically correct but right now.......this appears to be a media/social media driven frenzy that hasn't had the results other pandamics and normal flue seasons have had. Yes we have a lot of confirmed cases because we are testing for every flue like symptom. Today we passed the 1000 mark on deaths. However the CDC says that for the 2020 flu season. View attachment 40301

Now the CDC is saying we normally average 30,000 deaths and no panic. Over 12,000 died to swine flu and no panic. Now again I'm not saying coronavirus is not real nor am I saying it cannot surpass these numbers. But what I'm saying is if we are canceling all these major events, stopping major sports, shutting down major venues like Las Vegas long before the deaths even started here...…...I'm just asking what is in store for us the next time around?

Will the flu season be a source of work stoppages and shutting down the nation in the future? I know the standard answer will be "well life is more important than sports events, and the normal its better to be safe than sorry" but to what extent? Do we stop letting people drive because they kill 40,000 each year? There has to be some balance to the rational and expense to the world trying to medically protect a portion of the population that are dying of natural causes anyway. Viruses are a natural cause.
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A few weeks ago I was saying those exact same things. But this isn’t analogous to the flu or driving. The virus is spreading like wildfire and deaths are compounding. Like doubling every few days. Do the math on that and run it out 30 days, and you can see that we have a massive problem. Deaths, hospital beds, morgues, grave diggers.
 

WestTexasHusker said:
A few weeks ago I was saying those exact same things. But this isn’t analogous to the flu or driving. The virus is spreading like wildfire and deaths are compounding. Like doubling every few days. Do the math on that and run it out 30 days, and you can see that we have a massive problem. Deaths, hospital beds, morgues, grave diggers.
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Today is going to be worse than yesterday and yesterday worse than the day before. We are on the front end of that curve and extrapolating off of that data is not the practical thing to do ...
 
WestTexasHusker said:
A few weeks ago I was saying those exact same things. But this isn’t analogous to the flu or driving. The virus is spreading like wildfire and deaths are compounding. Like doubling every few days. Do the math on that and run it out 30 days, and you can see that we have a massive problem. Deaths, hospital beds, morgues, grave diggers.
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Doing the math requires understanding saturation. You cannot continue doubling at a point where most people in that region have been exposed but not infected. Already we are seeing areas of heavy exposure slowing down. New York being the exception
 
Hville said:
Doing the math requires understanding saturation. You cannot continue doubling at a point where most people in that region have been exposed but not infected. Already we are seeing areas of heavy exposure slowing down. New York being the exception
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I sure hope you're right - as do my employees i am sure! :Banana:
 



Hville said:
Doing the math requires understanding saturation. You cannot continue doubling at a point where most people in that region have been exposed but not infected. Already we are seeing areas of heavy exposure slowing down. New York being the exception
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My best friend has his PHD from Oxford studying viruses. He's done a lot of work on malaria and ebola. He's consulting labs on Covid. I've had conversations with him on this and unless it's changed since the last time I talked to him he'd say the endgame here is basically everyone gets this and we create a herd immunity. Akin to chicken pox parties.

Now, the flu comparisons drive him nuts. The mortality and morbidity of Covid are much greater than what we see with the seasonal flu. The best course of action, to me, would seem to be isolating the elderly and sick and exposing everyone else. But I think the difficulty in that is defining, or rather, determining who's sick and who would be compromised by this (outside of that elderly demographic). Of course, the other great concern here is for those that would be hospitalized and the already taxed healthcare industry.

So here we are. A vaccine is still a long way away. My hope is the summer months really do limit this virus like it does the flu and other corona viruses. Time will tell.
 
The Impaler said:
My best friend has his PHD from Oxford studying viruses. He's done a lot of work on malaria and ebola. He's consulting labs on Covid. I've had conversations with him on this and unless it's changed since the last time I talked to him he'd say the endgame here is basically everyone gets this and we create a herd immunity. Akin to chicken pox parties.
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I pretty much agree with this. I believe almost every American will be exposed to it. Most will have little or no symptoms. In the big picture the bodies natural immunity system is the largest vaccine. However, there are a smaller percentage of Americans that are going to have noticeable symptoms that range from staying home bound to death. That's why I disagree with people who just believe exponentially doubling itself every day. Eventually exposures are reduces as the pure number of people left to be exposed will decrease.

Keep in mind that no expert in the world has said socially distancing is preventative to the extend of stopping exposure. Only that it is being done to SLOW the exposure so we aren't overwhelming the health care system. Exposures have to happen to end the process. I'm somewhat amused at some of the facebook comments where people say if the entire nation would just self-quarantine for 14 days this would be over. No........that would most likely stretch it out another 14 days and those 14 days of no food being produced, no hospitals open, no trucks moving, no electricity, water or internet would be much worse than the virus itself.
 
WestTexasHusker said:
One of my best friends is a consultant to a number of professional, semi-pro, and college sports programs. He meets with the heavyweights in these programs/organizations regularly. Here is what he is telling me:

  • NBA is likely done for the year.
  • MLB is likely done for the year, as are affiliated minor league teams
  • MLS could possibly resume a condensed season late fall
  • NHL brass is still trying to resume in July, but he thinks they are not being realistic
  • NFL almost certainly will not start on time. Executives are hoping for a fall training camp and a short season.
  • NCAA fall sports are in jeopardy, it is unlikely they will play, and if they do, it will be condensed seasons.
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My answer is ask me about this at the end of May. That is a full 2 months away from now. I would say most likely NBA and NHL season's are done. But that only makes sense. The MLB season was suppose to start today. There are way too many scenarios to count as to what may happen in MLB. Football season is basically 5 months from starting way too early to tell what is going to happen.

If everything looks a lot better by the start of July I could see football being on time.

Heck ask me in a month and we will know a lot more about how this virus is working itself out. There is way too little data to decide anything IMO.
 




The Impaler said:
Is it logistically possible that football occur in the spring? Honest question, have no idea. It would be weird but better than losing a whole season. Still a lot of time between now and fall though so hopefully things get under control.
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If you have football in the Spring, I assume you're referring to 2021, what would you do in the Fall? Have 2 seasons in one calendar year?
 



WestTexasHusker said:
Just to be clear, my friend isn’t being pessimistic - he was just telling me what the conversations are. And it is not his job to recommend whether or not seasons happen - he ain’t that sort of consultant. Relying on him for that would be akin to asking your lawn guy to be your marriage counselor. :Mfclap:
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That's an idea. I may talk to lawn guy about that. The togetherness has been intense lately. If only I understood Spanish.
 

The thing I never see when people discuss the possibility of no fall college sports is the fact that means campuses probably won't be open either. If COVID-19 is still causing enough issues in early August to cause the NCAA to cancel the fall sports season, that likely means colleges won't open up campuses. If college campuses aren't open to students, that will lead to likely hundreds of college's (mostly small private schools) to close permanently, and it will make a huge financial dent to smaller public colleges. In other words, college sports would be almost permanently impacted for years.
 
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