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2020 sports seasons from a guy who knows

Porkchopexpress said:
The thing I never see when people discuss the possibility of no fall college sports is the fact that means campuses probably won't be open either. If COVID-19 is still causing enough issues in early August to cause the NCAA to cancel the fall sports season, that likely means colleges won't open up campuses. If college campuses aren't open to students, that will lead to likely hundreds of college's (mostly small private schools) to close permanently, and it will make a huge financial dent to smaller public colleges. In other words, college sports would be almost permanently impacted for years.
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that is correct. I think the bolded is probably already a given. Even if school is in session in the fall, I think there will be 10-15% drops in enrollment. One, many can no longer afford traditional school, and two, folks are realizing currently that online education is legit and much more affordable. Athletics are now officially impacted.
 
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There is data suggesting that the virus peaks at around 30 days and then tapers off. There is also data suggesting that it will reduce during the summer months. People who were predicting hundreds of thousands or millions of deaths are starting to change their predictions. It will probably come back in the fall but we will be better prepared by then.

The MLB will start playing games in the summer. The NFL will have training camp and play a full season. College football will have a full season.
 
The economic fallout of this will force more super conferences.

Teams like Michigan will be fine. Central Michigan won't.

You're gonna see a lot of shuffling among the D2 and G5 teams, I suspect, as well as the poorer P5 folks like the Big XII who refuse to share revenue. Schools like Iowa State might wind up in D2.
 




Marcus said:
There is data suggesting that the virus peaks at around 30 days and then tapers off. There is also data suggesting that it will reduce during the summer months. People who were predicting hundreds of thousands or millions of deaths are starting to change their predictions. It will probably come back in the fall but we will be better prepared by then.

The MLB will start playing games in the summer. The NFL will have training camp and play a full season. College football will have a full season.
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I like your thinking.

I am just not ready to be all doom and gloom about everything with this virus.
 
If warm weather does to this virus what it does to others, then things should really be slowing down come mid summer. If this is the case I don't see how you cancel everything, school, sports, or whatever, on the thought it will come back again in the fall or winter. Yes it may well come back, but I don't think you cancel everything based on that.

Could you open everything up and end up having to shut it all back down again, sure that's possible. But I think you cross that bridge when you come to it, but you don't shut down when there may be nothing to shut down for.

You don't shut the coast down because it's hurricane season, or board up Nebraska because it's tornado season. Of course there may well be some people in a bunker somewhere waiting for the Yellowstone volcano to erupt.

All that being said, I got a 6 week supply of beer on hand so I'm going nowhere.
 
NUinID said:
I like your thinking.

I am just not ready to be all doom and gloom about everything with this virus.
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I was initially very supportive of the mitigation measures being taken. Given the unpredictable nature of the risk, mitigation was necessary while we were still collecting data. But I think it is becoming fairly clear from the data that we have now collected that the initial doom and gloom predictions made by some were way, way off.

People who are elderly and people who have serious health issues that make them at-risk should continue to quarantine, but the rest of America should go back to work and school (while practicing social distancing and good hygiene).
 



Scott Boras was floating the idea of a full 162 game season with WS at Christmas yesterday. That implies a July MLB start. I just don’t see it. The MLB commissioner said today May is a pipe dream at this point. Not to play but even for the players to start working out again. I think 2020 sports are lost. The NCAA won’t put young athletes at risk. The pros still have to fly to major cities to play. When will that be safe? And even if it is, there is still no treatment available.

The unthinkable is starting to become a reality.
 
Our coaches ought to identify the 15, or so, guys that we always hear are "like coaches on the field" and figure out a way to tell each of these guys that they need to organize, and be the leader of, 7-8 specific other players...to teach them everything about the offense or defense or plays or positions, etc. Get them keys to the film rooms, facilities, and also a map identifying parks that haven't been closed. A good solid year of studying the offense/defense/playbooks might make for a dandy 2021. Recommending a good set of home-based workout routines might help too. Get admin staff to schedule these groups and communicate. No reason to waste a year, or even a few months. Do/encourage everything legally allowed.
 

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