2019 is our coming out party

[One Hit Wonder]

If Wisc has three losses out of that run they will be a better team due to it just as NU was this past year.

One fact I pointed out in another thread but not necessarily hanging my hat on, Nebraska gets a bye week before playing Wisconsin which is a reversal from the 2018 scheduling. In 2019 Wisconsin plays Iowa the week before traveling to Nebraska.

 

[Pops]

That statement could probably apply to 80 to 90% of most P5 teams with an exceptional starting QB imo. VERY few teams have back up QB's like Bama... period. If they are good enough to start elsewhere they tend to transfer so they can get playing time. So of course if AM were to go down early on (god forbid) we're probably not going to have a great season. DUH.... no kidding.

However the same can be said if we have minimal injuries to our starters and of course AM stays healthy. I believe most here are looking realistically and based on last season only see a few teams that MIGHT beat the Huskers. We have a very favorable schedule, an exceptional QB, an exceptional coaching staff, several transfers that look excellent and another year in the Scott Frost system. Our S&C should be much improved over the winter which should really help. I don't believe it takes 4 years of S&C to start showing a lot of progress? We also will have almost all the players buying into the new coaches and system.

Combine all the positives and I believe the Huskers have a very good chance at a 9-3 or 10-2 regular season. There's more reasons to expect a big improvement over this year then their's not imo......

Key....defence

 

[bilsker]

This thread is starting to feel like one of those arguments that I used to have with crazy ex-girlfriends where I said something, and they "quoted" back to me how I had "made them feel," and my actual words weren't supposed to matter. @One Hit Wonder did not say that we'd go 6-6, or that we'd probably lose to those 6 teams. His exact words were that they had a "good probability" of beating us. That's a subjective phrase, but if you think that we're a lock to win 5 of those 6 games and go 11-1, yes, I absolutely would make that bet with you. Do I think that we'll be better than 6-6 in 2019? Yes, I do. I expect us to go to a bowl game, and I would pick 8-4 as our over/under record for the regular season.

In the Big 8 we played three teams--Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State--who NEVER beat Osborne. Those days are over. Even in those years that feel like the glory days, we'd still get beat occasionally by Colorado, Missouri, or Iowa State. With our non-conference schedule we basically had 6 all-but-guaranteed wins, plus 2-3 from CO, MO, and IA State. Those days are over.

We are now in a situation where there isn't a team on our schedule besides South Alabama who will be a long shot at going to a bowl. Look over the schedules of our opponents for next year and identify how many teams you would bet against going to a bowl. Northern Illinois should be down, but they are a bowl team this year, and they have a good shot at going again next year, depending on what happens in the MAC. Indiana and Maryland are likely to win at least 6 games next year if either one can beat us. Even Illinois barely missed out this year, and they would have gone to a bowl if they had beat us. They have almost everyone back.

We could potentially end up playing 9-10 bowl teams next year, and we were 4-8 this year. We lost our top rusher, top receiver, several leading tacklers, and all but one Safety who saw playing time. If you seriously want to bet that we're going to win 10 or 11 games, I'll take your money. If Nebraska covers, I'll be happy to pay. If not, I'll be comforted by taking your money.

And hville did say we would go 11-1.

OHW did say something to the effect of "strong probability" of losing those 6 games. Strong probability means it is likely to happen. Now...if he meant "strong possibility" that's different. But there is a clear distinction in those two phrases though and i was taking him literally. Fwiw

 

[Cisco]

That statement could probably apply to 80 to 90% of most P5 teams with an exceptional starting QB imo. VERY few teams have back up QB's like Bama... period. If they are good enough to start elsewhere they tend to transfer so they can get playing time. So of course if AM were to go down early on (god forbid) we're probably not going to have a great season. DUH.... no kidding.

However the same can be said if we have minimal injuries to our starters and of course AM stays healthy. I believe most here are looking realistically and based on last season only see a few teams that MIGHT beat the Huskers. We have a very favorable schedule, an exceptional QB, an exceptional coaching staff, several transfers that look excellent and another year in the Scott Frost system. Our S&C should be much improved over the winter which should really help. I don't believe it takes 4 years of S&C to start showing a lot of progress? We also will have almost all the players buying into the new coaches and system.

Combine all the positives and I believe the Huskers have a very good chance at a 9-3 or 10-2 regular season. There's more reasons to expect a big improvement over this year then their's not imo......

I agree with your bolded. But improving to 8-4 IS a very big improvement. Going from 4-8 to 11-1 in one season is very rare, especially when the 4-8 season is more of a trend than an outlier. We have averaged 5.5 wins over a four year period. Trying to rationalize why we could go 11-1 during the offseason really only drives expectations amongst fans that are extremely difficult for the players and staff to live up to at a point in time when it's not really fair to them.

 

[cthusker]

I agree with your bolded. But improving to 8-4 IS a very big improvement. Going from 4-8 to 11-1 in one season is very rare, especially when the 4-8 season is more of a trend than an outlier. We have averaged 5.5 wins over a four year period. Trying to rationalize why we could go 11-1 during the offseason really only drives expectations amongst fans that are extremely difficult for the players and staff to live up to at a point in time when it's not really fair to them.

That's why I said 9-3 or even 10-2... 11-1 is probably off the charts. I honestly believe 9-3 is obtainable with a few breaks going our way

 

[Brew City Husker]

For the 8-4 and 9-3 fans. This is a sincere question. Who do you think the 3 or 4 teams are on the schedule that beat us next year?

First of all, we are coming off of consecutive 4-8 seasons. We’ve had 8 wins in two years. We went from 1969 though 2001 without ever slipping below 9 wins and now we’re in an era where we couldn’t get 9 wins in two years. That’s a graphic illustration of how far we have fallen. We’ve just “enjoyed” a 4-2 stretch that followed a historically poor 10 game losing streak. I know, optimism abounds and like everyone else, I believe the program is headed in the right direction, but I don’t see us going from historically bad to elite in half a season and one off season. I’ll go through the schedule and relate my concerns to specific games:

South Alabama: Win. No concerns
Colorado: Win. They are starting over. We will be highly motivated
Northern Illinois: Win. Mild concern. They beat us the last time we played.
Illinois: Win. Concerned about this one. We haven’t won a road game since October of 2017.
Ohio State: Loss. They will have a smooth transition and they have more talent than we do. It will be a close and hard-fought game. Talent will win out.
Northwestern: Win/Loss. Very concerned about this one. We have more talent. We always think we should beat them yet they are 3-1 in their last 4 games in Lincoln. We’ll be fresh off an emotional and close loss to OSU. They’ll be well coached and won’t make mistakes. Trap game.
Minnesota: Win. Closer game than most people think. Important win coming off of two losses.
Indiana: Win. Building momentum coming off a bye week. We’ll win big.
Purdue: Win/Loss. Very concerned about this one. Moore is the real deal. Road game.
Wisconsin: Win/Loss. Seems like we havent’ beaten them in forever. They were injury depleted and had an off year and we still lost by more than two touchdowns. They’ll reload at some positions, I know. But RB and OL are more important to them than QB. They’ll have a strong team. Home field helps here. Bye week before helps.
Maryland: Win. They have some talent, but we will beat them. Some concern with the fact that this game falls between two important and physical games. We still win.
Iowa: Win/Loss: In spite of everyone on this board’s belief that we are always more talented than Iowa, we can’t seem to figure out how to beat them. Maybe we know now, maybe we don’t.

I have 7 games marked down as “Win”. If we win all of those it will be a good season. One game, OSU is marked as a loss. We could beat them, but I don’t think we’re there yet. That leaves 4 games, Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwestern as Win/Loss games. So if we win two of those, win all 7 of the “win” games and lose to Ohio State we’ll be 9-3. I think we’ll probably drop one of the “win” games and end up 8-4. Maybe I have PTSD, but I keep seeing that we’ve been 4-8 for two years in a row. In that context, 8-4 seems pretty good to me.

 

[Middle-aged_Ball_Coach]

OHW did say something to the effect of "strong probability" of losing those 6 games. Strong probability means it is likely to happen. Now...if he meant "strong possibility" that's different. But there is a clear distinction in those two phrases though and i was taking him literally. Fwiw

This is a lay-up. Teams with a good probability to beat Nebraska:

He said "Teams with a good probability to beat Nebraska." I can't say exactly what he meant by that, but I looked at the teams he listed, and I agreed that everyone of them has a reasonable chance to beat us next year. "Good" and "reasonable" are subjective, relative terms. If I had to place odds on them, I'd say that each of those teams has better than a 1-out-of-3 chance of winning against us, and OSU would be more like a 2-out-of-3 chance. Put it all together and I drew the same conclusion as @One Hit Wonder: we're likely to lose at least 2 of those games.

Fwiw, this thread has inspired me to start another discussing expectations for the B1G. This is a good discussion.

 

[bilsker]

FWIW:

Probable: likely to be the case or to happen
Possible: able to be done; within the power or capacity of someone or something.

Again, VERY different. If you say these 6 games are probably losses or they are possible losses...those are two very different statements.

 

[Discoverer27]

I think there has never been a more optimistic fanbase coming off back to back 4-8 seasons.

 

[Middle-aged_Ball_Coach]

FWIW:

Probable: likely to be the case or to happen
Possible: able to be done; within the power or capacity of someone or something.

Again, VERY different. If you say these 6 games are probably losses or they are possible losses...those are two very different statements.

He didn't say either. You're beatin' the heck out of a straw-man.

 

[the fountainhead]

Key....defence

Are you from Canada? It’s spelled Defense in this country

 

[bilsker]

He didn't say either. You're beatin' the heck out of a straw-man.

Teams with a good probability to beat Nebraska:

 

[huskrthill]

That's just saying there is a good chance. Low probability means less of a chance.

What constitutes "high" or "low" probability in this context is pretty subjective.

 

[Uncle Buck]

There is no reason we don’t win the Big 10 West in 19
We have the coaches and players and system in place

 

[Pops]

Are you from Canada? It’s spelled Defense in this country

It's spelled Difesa ...in Italian