If you are right, Pelini will no longer be the coach. The petitions will be out in late September, early October at the latest. No excuse for fewer than 10 wins with 17...count em...17 returning starters!
I think I see where you get your numbers, but in fact in terms of regular starters we lost three off the OL, a FB, DL (Moore/Crick,) LB (ouch,) CB (ouch,) and S. That leaves 14 end of year starters returning plus a kicker/punter and long snapper. There are other guys who have started, so if you throw in Baptiste, Cooper, Mitchell, Osborne, PJ Smith, Rodriguez, Sirles, and Moore, one could say we have 25 returning starters including both kicking positions and long snapper. The number of returning starters is certainly a big factor, but we have certainly seen years where teams like Kansas return everyone and still aren't that good. To go from 7-5 to 10-2 (the best we will be,) we will need some other things:
#1 - A QB. Whether it's TMart finally becoming one (unlikely) or a back-up emerging (unlikely) we need an offense that can consistently help the defense. We haven't had this since Pelini's 1st season. In Beck's offense (as opposed to TO's option offenses,) we have to have a QB that is a passing threat, and without that, good defenses will continue to stomp us no matter how good our o-line becomes.
#2 - Young guys to emerge on defense (this one's possible.) Can Peat, Rome or Williams become disruptors? Can we find two lock-down corners? Compton developed nicely this season but can we develop three solid linebackers? And please with four senior and one junior DE's, can one of them step up to get pressure on the QB and protect the edge on scrambling QB's??? Our nickle package improved once Evans settled in, but our dime was never that good. I think Seisay and our new dline coach are key to next season's D.
#3 - O-line improvement (IMO likely) - Outside of the 4th quarter collapse against USC, I thought they were an improved unit. Can they take another step with the touted young guys we have on the roster and become formidable?
#4 - Luck with injuries. Few college teams outside the SEC have real depth. We will have injuries, but there are some injuries that would truly damage - Compton, Rex, Green and Stafford need to stay healthy. Since Bo doesn't like to see his back-ups play, the back-ups don't have much experience so injuries become even more critical at NU.
#5 - Re-ignite the swagger the 2009 defense had and develop it on both sides of the ball. Does Bo know swagger? Can Bo develop swagger? We have all seen changes in momentum caused by a turnover, blocked kick, etc. change football games, but teams with swagger stop those momentum swings like immobile D-linemen stop Tmart on a scramble. Ron Brown hit it the other day in the LJS talking about "maturity". Does a team luck into maturity or is it developed by coaches that know swagger? Having suffered through many Barry Switzer teams for a lot of years, IMO some coaches can develop swagger. Urban Meyer's OSU teams will have swagger...
IMO, there is no way we beat OSU without divine intervention. I do believe we can beat/compete with all other teams on the schedule and if each of the items above happen, we can be 10-2 heading into the CCG. Based on what Pelini has produced to date, I think 7-5 or 8-4 is likely.