I'll stick my neck out here... I expect 6 wins. Am thinking we get to 7 wins. If we get to 8 i'm going to be damn excited about our future. And if we go 9 or above I worry we set the bar way too high out of the gate. Not always a bad thing, but could have some negative things down the road come up. I don't think we will have to worry about 9+ though. Here's where i'm at...
2 MAJOR things that national analysts and Vegas said were going to give us trouble last year and thus our lower win total predictions than the season prior are:
1 - New QB. Usually a pretty big indicator. And Tanner Lee had actually played some FBS football before. Gebbia and Martinez are each a year removed from playing any football, and that was at the high school level. There would be some growing pains even if we had been running the same offense for 5 years. Let alone it being year 1.
2 - New DC - We all thought Diaco would suit who we were better, but at the end of the day it was a new defense our kids had to learn. There are growing pains. Statistically, there's no way we can be worse, but it's still new.
So there's 2 things right there that go against us that also were factors in low predictions last year. You also add in these two:
1 - New HC/OC. Basically this is going to happen anytime there's a change. But the fact is, this is still new.
2 - On paper, a much more difficult schedule than 2017. 2018 has us with some definite challenges from opponents before we even look at what may be facing us.
All that said, I still expect us to be better. While someone could put lipstick on a pig that our non-conference will be extremely tough, I expect 3-0. I could see 2-1, but won't get devastated. Purdue and Illinois at home are wins that should take us to 5. Minnesota i'm not sold on and they are at home, should take us to 6. From there on out, all five of our road games we will be underdogs according to the preseason outlook, and Sparty at home we will be an underdog. I think we can grab one maybe two of those, but that also means we can't screw up anywhere else to get to 8 wins.
7-5 is what i'm hoping for. 6-6 is my epectation. 8-4 oh my we got something here. 9-3+ I hope people don't get too crazy with expectations 2019.