I estimate our odds of beating the following teams at 90+%:
- South Alabama
- Northern Illinois
I estimate our odds of beating the following teams at 75+%:
- Colorado
- Illinois
I estimate our odds of beating the following teams at 60+%:
- Northwestern
- Indiana
- Maryland
I estimate our odds of beating the following teams at 50+%:
- Minnesota
- Purdue
- Wisconsin
- Iowa
I estimate our odds of beating the following teams at <35%:
- Ohio State
- B1G Championship Game
If you're nodding along while looking at those percentages, here's the part where the Kool-Aid gets spilled: If my percentages are accurate, it is statistically expected that we would lose at least 2 of the games that we're favored to win, lose 2 of the 4 at 50/50, and lose to Ohio State. If all of that happened, we wouldn't be playing in the B1G Championship game.
I think that we finish 8-4, and we'll have a shot at the B1G Championship game depending on tie-breakers. If we have any key injuries--Martinez, JD, Barry, Ferguson, Jaimes, M Farniok, D Williams--we will be very fortunate to make it to a bowl game. If everyone stays healthy, we could go 10-2 and play in the B1G Championship Game. Even in the best case scenario, we're likely to lose a game where we're favored, probably another where the odds are very close to even, and probably another where we're picked to lose (which could be the B1G Championship Game).
Although we will likely be favored to win, we don't have any truly easy road games this year. We'll get little credit for going on the road and beating Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, and Maryland, but every one of those games is a potential hiccup, especially when you consider that Colorado and Purdue beat us at home last year. Maryland and Colorado will be wildcards with their new coaches, but both have talent on the rosters. Illinois ran all over us last year, and we have to play them there this year, and it's the week before we play Ohio State. That's a classic setup for an upset. Purdue has some holes to fill from last year, but they have Rondale back, an experienced QB, and a whole lot more confidence than a year ago. Minnesota is the one that most concerns me. Their defense was atrocious when we played them, and their best RB didn't play against us, but we still had to beat them in a track meet. They were a completely different team after getting a new DC, and they have almost everyone back.