Keagan Johnson Commits To Iowa

[South Omaha Husker]

I just want to make sure i'm relaying things correctly. I'm just pointing to a couple things that worry me...

First, we used to say "where is the talent in Omaha and in-state" and I agree it was lagging for a bit. But the 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 classes have some really good kids in there. We finally have that talent and Watts/Johnson are the first kids their caliber to leave in 12 years since Tyrone Sellers did it in 2009. Dickerson is the first kid his caliber to leave in 13 years since Robinson did it in the 2008 class. Now that we have the kids, they are leaving. We need to reverse that.

Secondly, Iowa used to have to take the kids we didn't want and develop them. Drew Ott and Nate Bazata are easily relatable guys for us to look at. Nebraska passed on them, and Iowa who is outstanding at development made them what they were. No doubt in my mind they wouldn't be what they are now if they came to Nebraska. We just don't develop like that. But a disturbing trend is Iowa starting to grab guys we deem worthy of a scholarship, so now they are going to be developing like they always do, with guys that are better out of the gate that Nebraska wants. That's a scary thing for me. I grabbed from @Bleed Red 's post the 2014-2016 guys and looked up 2017-2020 on my own, the 9 commits with Husker offers were from another posters stuff so let me run those.

2014 Iowa Commits with Nebraska offers: (1):
Jay Scheel - Ath - Iowa

2015 Iowa Commits with Nebraska offers (0):

2016 Iowa Commits with Nebraska offers (2):
Noah Fant - TE - Nebraska
Alaric Jackson - OL - Iowa

2017 Iowa Commits with Nebraska offers (3):
Mark Kallenberger - OL - Iowa
Dijmon Colbert - DB - Missouri
AJ Epenesa - DL - Illinois

2018 Iowa Commits with Nebraska offers (3):
Dallas Cradieth - DB - Missouri
Spencer Petras - QB - California
John Waggoner - OL - Iowa

2019 Iowa Commits with Nebraska offers (2):
Tyler Goodson - RB - Georgia
Jestin Jacobs - LB - Ohio

2020 Iowa Commits with Nebraska offers (5):
Luke Lachey - TE - Ohio
Elijah Yelverton - TE - Texas
Josh Volk - OL - Iowa
Logan Jones - DL - Iowa
Gavin Williams - RB - Michigan

2021 Iowa Commits with Nebraska offers (10):
Keagan Johnson - WR - Nebraska
Brody Brecht - WR - Iowa
David Davidkov - OL - Illinois
Beau Stephens - OL - Missouri
Max Llewellyn - DE - Iowa
Jeff Bowie - DE - Iowa
Justice Sullivan - LB - Minnesota
Griffin Liddle - DT - Iowa
Jaden Harrell - LB - Iowa
Connor Colby - OL - Iowa

That spikes in a hurry. And I want to be clear that I don't think Iowa will end up ranked higher than Nebraska at the end, but I can tell you with their early pull they are going to finish higher than they have in a while which is what scares me. What I was getting at, is usually Iowa was ahead of us in recruiting in May because their class was almost full, but it was of 5.4 and 5.5 guys. They actually have a higher average star ranking than us and over twice as many commits. Now as you pointed out, they have a good crop of in-state talent, and out of their top 10 guys in state, they've locked up 6 of them already. That's with another Power5 school in-state. All i'm getting at is Iowa is recruiting better, and that's an issue when we couldn't beat them when we had better players out of high school. Now they are getting close to the same caliber as we are, and if their development stays the same and ours stays the same, we aren't overtaking them any time soon. All I was really getting at is before the 2020 class, back to 2014 the most kids that ever chose Iowa over Nebraska in a recruiting class was 3. 2021 has 10 and we are in the beginning of May. They are getting kids we want. This isn't old Iowa that would get undervalued players and develop them, this is new Iowa that is getting highly sought after recruits and going to develop them. That's an issue if we are trying to win the west.

Now, i'm not saying this is all Frost's fault with this stuff. The groundwork for us being to 1 bowl the past 5 years was not all on him. But I do think there's a reason he called the Bellevue West coach and asked what he could be doing better in Omaha. He knows there's things they need to do better. There's things that PJ Fleck did to separate himself from Frost with Dickerson, and there's things Kirk Ferentz did to separate himself from Frost with Johnson. And it's some simple things that we can change in a hurry that has zero to do with what our record is. That's why i'm somewhat on this soap box right now, because there's things Ferentz is doing in March and April that has zero to do with the score in November against them to separate themselves. I'm not saying we are going to get every in-state kid, but I do think we need to do better at creating relationships with our in-state guys. Especially Rivals250 kids, because right now Iowa and Minnesota are doing a better job of that than us for the 2021 and 2022 class so we have ground to make up.

Great post and spot on

 

[Frosty1980]

All 5 stars don't pan out though and some are replaceable

On the other hand some three stars are under ranked for various reasons

I get what Oracle trying to say. He may have used the wrong verbiage however. Had they both committed to Nebraska I think the opinions would be a whole lot different. Human nature

But a way higher percentage of five stars pan out compared to three stars. Over 50% of five stars make it to the NFL. 7% of three stars. Mainly because there’s over a thousand three stars and less than 100 five stars every year.

 

[Bleed Red]

But a way higher percentage of five stars pan out compared to three stars. Over 50% of five stars make it to the NFL. 7% of three stars. Mainly because there’s over a thousand three stars and less than 100 five stars every year.

Yes, they would have to expand roster sizes a great deal to get 500 3* players to the league each year.

 

[BigRedAvenger]

What's interesting is Iowa called Ott and had a couple other coaches listening to the conversation. After the conversation was over, the Iowa coaches sat and talked about what they heard from Ott and if they thought he would fit based on that conversation. They called him back the next day or something really quick and offered him before he took off to go to their camp. That's a pretty cool story about finding a fit for your team. Makes it easier when Nebraska tells Ott we aren't taking him and we are taking Cotton though.

It's so interesting to look back at old articles for Ott and Bazata and their commitment pieces with Iowa reporters where they basically say "it's pretty easy to choose Iowa when I can tell my friends begging me to choose Nebraska that they said they weren't going to offer."

Nebraska didn't have a choice. The Cotton Act of 2008 clearly states that any descendant of Barney is to be given a scholarship at Nebraska, regardless of ability or competition for said scholarship.

 

[Elwood von Kiowa]

But a way higher percentage of five stars pan out compared to three stars. Over 50% of five stars make it to the NFL. 7% of three stars. Mainly because there’s over a thousand three stars and less than 100 five stars every year.

Wow, and I never thought of it that way.
50% of 100 = 50 (5*)
7% of 1000 = 70 (3*)

So there's actually more 3* athletes in the NFL than 5*.

 

[Frosty1980]

Yes, they would have to expand roster sizes a great deal to get 500 3* players to the league each year.

I understood that and basically pointed it out in my comments. The fact remains these talent evaluators are really good at what they do. Recruiting services get it right a lot more than they did twenty years ago.

 

[Frosty1980]

Wow, and I never thought of it that way.
50% of 100 = 50 (5*)
7% of 1000 = 70 (3*)

So there's actually more 3* athletes in the NFL than 5*.

Yes but only because there’s more three stars. I will always think recruiting rankings and stars matter. They at least matter to the elite programs. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa aren’t elite but people on here act like they are . Granted Nebraska isn’t elite either.

 

[TFrazier]

But a way higher percentage of five stars pan out compared to three stars. Over 50% of five stars make it to the NFL. 7% of three stars. Mainly because there’s over a thousand three stars and less than 100 five stars every year.

 

[LarstheRed]

The first paragraph is what is interesting to me. Iowa has 15 total commits, 9 of which had Nebraska offers. I don't know if i've ever seen us lose that many recruits to a division rival in one year ever. And we are only in May.

As I believe you may have pointed out, we have a ton of offers out. I wonder how many commits at all B1G schools had Husker offers? My point is, the number might appear larger this year because of the volume offers. We also might be offering a few more midwestern kids as opposed to hammering Florida quite as much.

 

[mulletpelini]

If these kids decide to leave, good for them. A message needs to be sent though. Much like Freeman and Gabbert found out, you will be played fairly and you will be hurting after the game. And you will never win.

 

[ShortSideOption]

As I believe you may have pointed out, we have a ton of offers out. I wonder how many commits at all B1G schools had Husker offers? My point is, the number might appear larger this year because of the volume offers. We also might be offering a few more midwestern kids as opposed to hammering Florida quite as much.

I just think we are spread too thin. We have 63 offers out already to Florida 2021 kids, and I don't mind that we offer a bunch of Florida kids because they were actually paying attention to football when UCF was relevant. But i'll go back to the well, that if this is true:


Then why is this also true:


I don't mind the amount of offers, I just think it aids in our disorganization trying to keep track of that many kids. And even if you can, they don't get the attention that guys like Dickerson got from Minnesota.

 

[Turd Ferguson]

I just think we are spread too thin. We have 63 offers out already to Florida 2021 kids, and I don't mind that we offer a bunch of Florida kids because they were actually paying attention to football when UCF was relevant. But i'll go back to the well, that if this is true:


Then why is this also true:


I don't mind the amount of offers, I just think it aids in our disorganization trying to keep track of that many kids. And even if you can, they don't get the attention that guys like Dickerson got from Minnesota.

Is it possible that they are throwing out those offers as feelers? Then based on the reception from those players they determine who is interested and then narrow down their focus only on those players?

 

[Elwood von Kiowa]

I just think we are spread too thin. We have 63 offers out already to Florida 2021 kids, and I don't mind that we offer a bunch of Florida kids because they were actually paying attention to football when UCF was relevant. But i'll go back to the well, that if this is true:


Then why is this also true:


I don't mind the amount of offers, I just think it aids in our disorganization trying to keep track of that many kids. And even if you can, they don't get the attention that guys like Dickerson got from Minnesota.

Interesting that Louisville would tweet "our offers mean something" when they have 300 out there...

 

[Destroyerofworlds]

I guess i'm somewhat confused by your counter. I gave the factual reasons Keagan and his family chose Iowa. Is your counter what Scott Frost should have said? If so, we would have lost Keagan to Iowa much sooner. Frost did a really good job with him.

If your counter is what you would say, then are you of the opinion we shouldn't have even offered Keagan since he's not from out of state?

The people I listed were brought in by Frost, which is what KJ was looking at for development. Morgan was developed by Williams, Spielman is getting ready to transfer out, and Robinson is the good example there but was the #1 APB in the country and close to a five star. I don't believe Robinson doing well overtakes McGriff, Hunt, LeGrone, Woodyard, Williams, Watt, Nance, Chase, and Houston failing to show improvement since being on campus. Now, is that a little unfair since they have had 2 years and in some cases only 1 year? It is for us fans to demand the improvement, but I don't think it's unfair for a recruit to look at it and say "I haven't seen it here, but I have seen it there." It's actually what is putting a few hurdles in our way for Fidone. We can't show the development the Hawkeyes and other schools can at the TE position. Yet.

To your point about caliber of in-state talent... Keagan Johnson and Zavier Betts are the highest rated WRs in state since Niles Paul in 2007. These aren't some "name me local guys the last decade that have been successful" argument because there haven't been talents like them since Niles Paul. And guys like his brother went and became an All-American at an FCS school, so it's pretty tough to not like what you see on the surface.

To further the previous paragraphs point, Iowa in the last decade has only brought in 2 WRs the caliber of Keagan Johnson or better. One was Cameron Wilson who got booted off the team before playing, and the other is Tyrone Tracy, who had 36 receptions, 589 yards, and 3 touchdowns as a freshman in 2019. Iowa coaches highlighted that, and stated "this is what guys with your ability can do in our offense." That's a strong statement.

I think you are right that we are going to have guys from elsewhere help us at WR (heck, we have to, no one local). But I don't think it makes the pill any easier to swallow losing KJ to a division rival. Go read the threads when Demariyon Houston and Darien Chase committed, and how excited everyone was. Keagan Johnson is ranked the same as them, is 40 miles from Lincoln, and had a dad that played here when Frost did.

I'm rolling with the in-state guys to get the foundation built over Watt, McGriff, LeGrone, Hunt, etc. The "we will get other guys from elsewhere just as good" is a band-aid statement for an issue right now. We are actually lucky Betts had no shot at qualifying and kept the offers away.

Hey boss,

My point is this:

Just because he’s from Nebraska doesn’t make it any more likely that he will, or will not, succeed or flame out at the university.

I personally don’t read much into a middle of the pack wide receiver, which grow on trees, choosing to go elsewhere ... because there are plenty of *better* recruits who have chosen us and remain interested in us.

To a lesser extent I do understand the sentiment that you want to recruit your area well, but the somewhat sad fact of the matter is that our area is talent devoid. So when it’s been a billion years since we’ve had a “WR rated this highly” speaks further, in my opinion, to the point that we should focus recruiting in more fruitful areas.

Although I was born in Nebraska, my alma mater is Oregon, and their is a *serious* correlation between their success and when they started recruiting the talent rich areas of California, Texas and Florida decently well. And Oregon has more high quality recruits in state than Nebraska does anyway.

And it’s not like we are getting turned down by 3* recruits and going dumpster diving. KJ would’ve been one of the lowest rated WR recruits in last years class.

Basically the only reason I would’ve offered him and recruited him “hard” would be to keep a good relationship moving forward with the schools and even then .. if we didn’t have a great relationship with local schools, I’m not sure it would affect us all that much since there is a serious lack of talent.

I pretty much don’t care what Nebraska prospects “supposedly” think because most aren’t qualified to come here anyway. I do, however, care what recruits in Texas, California, Florida and talent rich areas think as that is what will really turn this program around — and we seem to be recruiting them well.

Our player development and retention do need a bit of help though, and to some extent I understand the sentiment that they’re more likely to stick it out if they’re a Nebraska kid — but that just ties up a scholly for longer. Reminds me a bit of Jaylin Bradley, who people ranted and raved about, but won’t crack the rotation in his time here.

and I’m sure Iowa has has plenty of WR busts over the years as well.

 

[ShortSideOption]

Is it possible that they are throwing out those offers as feelers? Then based on the reception from those players they determine who is interested and then narrow down their focus only on those players?

I think it's possible, heck, that's what I would do. But when Dickerson and Johnson and Brecht and Stephens and others all gave great reception and visited/camped here I think there's more than that.