Keagan Johnson Commits To Iowa

[ShortSideOption]

Interesting that Louisville would tweet "our offers mean something" when they have 300 out there...

The Louisville tweet is from a while ago when they were rolling. They changed things up now.

 

[LarstheRed]

I just think we are spread too thin. We have 63 offers out already to Florida 2021 kids, and I don't mind that we offer a bunch of Florida kids because they were actually paying attention to football when UCF was relevant. But i'll go back to the well, that if this is true:


Then why is this also true:


I don't mind the amount of offers, I just think it aids in our disorganization trying to keep track of that many kids. And even if you can, they don't get the attention that guys like Dickerson got from Minnesota.

I think back on the number of times over two decades, and several staffs, that we’ve pinned our hopes on a kid, and been left at the alter. It happens, and it happens to every team from time to time. But right or wrong, I think most of us have felt we've had the rug yanked out on us on some serious difference makers more than our share of time. We've gone from driver's seat to trunk in what seemed a couple of hours. That leaves us with jumping to Plan B.

Every staff has a plan A. That one player at a position they believe is a perfect fit physically, has the right mentality, and is attracted to the program to the point, there is a potential to sign them. Obviously there is a hierarchy when recruiting positions, and I'm sure the actual close rate on the guys at the top of the board isn't 50% or better. So the Plan B becomes critical, but the B can't be some cavernous drop off, they still need to be an elite player who has the likelihood of contributing. I know you know this stuff better than most, but I'm painting a picture for my reasoning as to why the staff currently is doing what they are doing.

So that Plan B guys is talented. He's elite in many ways. He's several other team's Plan A, and they are courting him as such. And he likely knows he's our Plan B, which makes securing him if Plan A bails that much harder. Here is why I think the staff is doing what they are doing: We can't miss on getting in talent. We can't go the way I felt Pelini did numerous times, and settle for some hard nosed, but physically limited kid because we whiffed on Plan A and/or Plan B. I see Frost throwing that wide net because he's not thinking A, B or C, he's thinking A, then B-1, B-2, B-3, then maybe C. In doing so he's playing the odds that of those first 4, we should be able to land 1, and not have to go the C route, which is generally the kind of reach you and most of the recruiting guys see as a likely wasted scholarship.

I'm not saying it's the actual format, but it seems to me that with the mindset the staff has about needing talent, and playing a style that we do that requires a certain physical ability, we can't create gaps at positions by having C's filling too much of our recruiting plan. Is it there a risk in spreading that much love to all those 18 year old egos? Sure, and you might be right about Dickerson. So not knowing what goes on inside that little melon of his, but assuming his ego is what some have suggested, and his affection for the program wasn't ever something to write home about, why would we put that one kid and one position above an overall recruiting strategy, and dump all of our resources on what appears to have been a risky play? He was by many accounts a solid Nebraska lean, but in short order, ran off with the insurance salesman and left us at the alter. I'm just glad we do have what appears to be a solid group of Plan B replacements, and we aren't having to fall back on the scrappy, but undersized kid from Wisner-Pilger because we are scrambling for our Plan C.

Seriously, I want our plan A's, and I want the staff to make them feel wanted as a Plan A should. But we are still in the process of putting a team on the field that the staff believes can compete in the B1G (just my opinion). I don't think we would continue this strategy once we are an established winner, but for the short term, I'm guessing this is the plan to insure we have a continued flow of physical talent coming in every recruiting cycle.

All of this is pure speculation, but having been in the position to have to add talent to a depleted region in my work, I've cast a pretty wide net on the talent I felt could help us, and I didn't just go after the top guys exclusively. I definitely went after those top guys, but after a few rejections, and having to scramble while falling behind the competition, I changed my strategy, went after a small, select group, and let them know there were other candidates considering the position. It probably lost me a few, but overall, it worked while I was in a major rebuilding mode.

 

[ShortSideOption]

Hey boss,

My point is this:

Just because he’s from Nebraska doesn’t make it any more likely that he will, or will not, succeed or flame out at the university.

I personally don’t read much into a middle of the pack wide receiver, which grow on trees, choosing to go elsewhere ... because there are plenty of *better* recruits who have chosen us and remain interested in us.

To a lesser extent I do understand the sentiment that you want to recruit your area well, but the somewhat sad fact of the matter is that our area is talent devoid. So when it’s been a billion years since we’ve had a “WR rated this highly” speaks further, in my opinion, to the point that we should focus recruiting in more fruitful areas.

Although I was born in Nebraska, my alma mater is Oregon, and their is a *serious* correlation between their success and when they started recruiting the talent rich areas of California, Texas and Florida decently well. And Oregon has more high quality recruits in state than Nebraska does anyway.

And it’s not like we are getting turned down by 3* recruits and going dumpster diving. KJ would’ve been one of the lowest rated WR recruits in last years class.

Basically the only reason I would’ve offered him and recruited him “hard” would be to keep a good relationship moving forward with the schools and even then .. if we didn’t have a great relationship with local schools, I’m not sure it would affect us all that much since there is a serious lack of talent.

I pretty much don’t care what Nebraska prospects “supposedly” think because most aren’t qualified to come here anyway. I do, however, care what recruits in Texas, California, Florida and talent rich areas think as that is what will really turn this program around — and we seem to be recruiting them well.

Our player development and retention do need a bit of help though, and to some extent I understand the sentiment that they’re more likely to stick it out if they’re a Nebraska kid — but that just ties up a scholly for longer. Reminds me a bit of Jaylin Bradley, who people ranted and raved about, but won’t crack the rotation in his time here.

and I’m sure Iowa has has plenty of WR busts over the years as well.

That's an interesting opinion, especially the bolded. Basically opposite of any coach that has ever coached here, including our current one who is busy dialing Omaha coaches to find out how he can do better because he thinks it's important.

 

[Turd Ferguson]

That's an interesting opinion, especially the bolded. Basically opposite of any coach that has ever coached here, including our current one who is busy dialing Omaha coaches to find out how he can do better because he thinks it's important.

If Frost wants to know what he can do better he just needs to read the HuskerMax forums

 

[N2FL]

I just think we are spread too thin. We have 63 offers out already to Florida 2021 kids, and I don't mind that we offer a bunch of Florida kids because they were actually paying attention to football when UCF was relevant. But i'll go back to the well, that if this is true:


Then why is this also true:


I don't mind the amount of offers, I just think it aids in our disorganization trying to keep track of that many kids. And even if you can, they don't get the attention that guys like Dickerson got from Minnesota.

Then you look at what Tennessee is doing with the same reported offers. The Vols are ***** killing it.

I mean, obviously Tennessee is in a much better location geographically, but I also think Pruitt put himself in position for this by showing the improvement from year 1 (5-7) to year 2 (8-5, Gator Bowl win). Had Frost done the same thing, i think he has commitments from Johnson and Dickerson (and a couple other guys they really liked that committed elsewhere) and positioned nicely for Woods and Jackson in '22.

 

[IUhusker]

Winning seems to fix most problems!

 

[N2FL]

Winning seems to fix most problems!

 

[goodnterribles]

Then you look at what Tennessee is doing with the same reported offers. The Vols are ***** killing it.

I mean, obviously Tennessee is in a much better location geographically, but I also think Pruitt put himself in position for this by showing the improvement from year 1 (5-7) to year 2 (8-5, Gator Bowl win). Had Frost done the same thing, i think he has commitments from Johnson and Dickerson (and a couple other guys they really liked that committed elsewhere) and positioned nicely for Woods and Jackson in '22.

Well, um, there might be more to it than that....

 

[p-ville husker]

If Frost wants to know what he can do better he just needs to read the HuskerMax forums

We have so called experts.

 

[p-ville husker]

Then you look at what Tennessee is doing with the same reported offers. The Vols are ***** killing it.

I mean, obviously Tennessee is in a much better location geographically, but I also think Pruitt put himself in position for this by showing the improvement from year 1 (5-7) to year 2 (8-5, Gator Bowl win). Had Frost done the same thing, i think he has commitments from Johnson and Dickerson (and a couple other guys they really liked that committed elsewhere) and positioned nicely for Woods and Jackson in '22.

Tennessee will lose a bunch of commits again. Last year lost 14. Hard sell and then no visits right now they will lose a lot of commits.

 

[ShortSideOption]

Then you look at what Tennessee is doing with the same reported offers. The Vols are ***** killing it.

I mean, obviously Tennessee is in a much better location geographically, but I also think Pruitt put himself in position for this by showing the improvement from year 1 (5-7) to year 2 (8-5, Gator Bowl win). Had Frost done the same thing, i think he has commitments from Johnson and Dickerson (and a couple other guys they really liked that committed elsewhere) and positioned nicely for Woods and Jackson in '22.

And that's what i'm getting at. While I think a lot of teams are going to have a lot of decommits, why is Nebraska not capitalizing on what every other team seems to be like Iowa and Minnesota? Why if it's because we have so many offers out are teams like Tennessee with so many offers out not having an issue?

I get we regularly are not going to be able to compete with Rocky Top. I also get that this is an abnormal year for a few different things. But we are explaining away our misses because "with more offers we will miss more" and "well he's from Nebraska so i'm not worried about losing him."

We are struggling a bit right now. But it's May. We will get 4 or 5 more before the season starts so that's good.

 

[ShortSideOption]

I think back on the number of times over two decades, and several staffs, that we’ve pinned our hopes on a kid, and been left at the alter. It happens, and it happens to every team from time to time. But right or wrong, I think most of us have felt we've had the rug yanked out on us on some serious difference makers more than our share of time. We've gone from driver's seat to trunk in what seemed a couple of hours. That leaves us with jumping to Plan B.

Every staff has a plan A. That one player at a position they believe is a perfect fit physically, has the right mentality, and is attracted to the program to the point, there is a potential to sign them. Obviously there is a hierarchy when recruiting positions, and I'm sure the actual close rate on the guys at the top of the board isn't 50% or better. So the Plan B becomes critical, but the B can't be some cavernous drop off, they still need to be an elite player who has the likelihood of contributing. I know you know this stuff better than most, but I'm painting a picture for my reasoning as to why the staff currently is doing what they are doing.

So that Plan B guys is talented. He's elite in many ways. He's several other team's Plan A, and they are courting him as such. And he likely knows he's our Plan B, which makes securing him if Plan A bails that much harder. Here is why I think the staff is doing what they are doing: We can't miss on getting in talent. We can't go the way I felt Pelini did numerous times, and settle for some hard nosed, but physically limited kid because we whiffed on Plan A and/or Plan B. I see Frost throwing that wide net because he's not thinking A, B or C, he's thinking A, then B-1, B-2, B-3, then maybe C. In doing so he's playing the odds that of those first 4, we should be able to land 1, and not have to go the C route, which is generally the kind of reach you and most of the recruiting guys see as a likely wasted scholarship.

I'm not saying it's the actual format, but it seems to me that with the mindset the staff has about needing talent, and playing a style that we do that requires a certain physical ability, we can't create gaps at positions by having C's filling too much of our recruiting plan. Is it there a risk in spreading that much love to all those 18 year old egos? Sure, and you might be right about Dickerson. So not knowing what goes on inside that little melon of his, but assuming his ego is what some have suggested, and his affection for the program wasn't ever something to write home about, why would we put that one kid and one position above an overall recruiting strategy, and dump all of our resources on what appears to have been a risky play? He was by many accounts a solid Nebraska lean, but in short order, ran off with the insurance salesman and left us at the alter. I'm just glad we do have what appears to be a solid group of Plan B replacements, and we aren't having to fall back on the scrappy, but undersized kid from Wisner-Pilger because we are scrambling for our Plan C.

Seriously, I want our plan A's, and I want the staff to make them feel wanted as a Plan A should. But we are still in the process of putting a team on the field that the staff believes can compete in the B1G (just my opinion). I don't think we would continue this strategy once we are an established winner, but for the short term, I'm guessing this is the plan to insure we have a continued flow of physical talent coming in every recruiting cycle.

All of this is pure speculation, but having been in the position to have to add talent to a depleted region in my work, I've cast a pretty wide net on the talent I felt could help us, and I didn't just go after the top guys exclusively. I definitely went after those top guys, but after a few rejections, and having to scramble while falling behind the competition, I changed my strategy, went after a small, select group, and let them know there were other candidates considering the position. It probably lost me a few, but overall, it worked while I was in a major rebuilding mode.

I think you're right, we are casting a wide net and we are certainly off our Plan A's in some instances. I guess all i'm getting at, and maybe i'm just too close to the situation, is that we wouldn't have had to move off of Plan A Dickerson if we would have done a few things that Fleck did while recruiting. We wouldn't have had to move off of Plan A Keagan Johnson if we were 7-5 last year and shown real improvement.

I think your post highlights what i'm getting at. We aren't losing more because we've identified 4 times as many Plan A guys as in the past. We are losing more because we are losing more of our Plan A guys. We just need the 2020 season to happen. If we lose Fidone something went extremely wrong. We gotta go show kids we are improving, because right now the 2021 class isn't buying it and the same thing will happen in Omaha for the 2022 class as 2021.

 

[TnHusker87]

Probably 'putting the ball up on the tee' for some of the experts, but Tennessee's Coach Pruitt has had some staff turnover since he took over, and the coaches he has brought in the 2nd and 3rd wave have had national level recognition in recruiting (at least three) … guys like Tee Martin which was a no-brainer for hiring him w/ his past connections to their '98 national title.

 

[HuskerNash]

Probably 'putting the ball up on the tee' for some of the experts, but Tennessee's Coach Pruitt has had some staff turnover since he took over, and the coaches he has brought in the 2nd and 3rd wave have had national level recognition in recruiting (at least three) … guys like Tee Martin which was a no-brainer for hiring him w/ his past connections to their '98 national title.

What he said!

 

[Elwood von Kiowa]

Probably 'putting the ball up on the tee' for some of the experts, but Tennessee's Coach Pruitt has had some staff turnover since he took over, and the coaches he has brought in the 2nd and 3rd wave have had national level recognition in recruiting (at least three) … guys like Tee Martin which was a no-brainer for hiring him w/ his past connections to their '98 national title.

Yeah, but Tennessee hasn't won anything since '98!






[\sarcasm]