Why we win the West

[Vinosker]

Nebraska has to be the favorite to win the West. But, we are still a young program, so there could be hiccups and/or derailments along the way.

Surprise team: Minnesota... super young and getting better with a very good coach. I think the West will be a battle of Nebraska and Minnesota for several years in the not so distant future.

Wisconsin: a program on the decline imo. They've enjoyed great success, but Paul Christ does not have a long history of winning. Look at his record at Pitt. He's a mediocre coach and I think that will become more and more apparent going forward.

Iowa: program going sideways. They've benefited from Nebraska's woes the past several years. I see them as more of a nuisance going forward and less of a threat.

The only part I might disagree with is Minnesota. Although I agree they will continue to improve under Fleck, I believe that Purdue will be our main competition to win the West as long as Brohm is there. I say this mainly due the the offense they run. I think the B1G is going to have to adjust to these offenses. I may be all wet, but that is how I see it thus far.

 

[HuskerInKCLand]

He had one carry against Bethune-Cookman on an option pitch from Vedral in the 2nd half. That was about it.

Thanks.

 

[HuskerWeatherman]

The West should be fairly wide open and unpredictable in 2019.

The only team I believe has no shot to win the West is Illinois. Otherwise, up for grabs between Nebraska, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Iowa, and even Minnesota.

Sure, we can all list flaws from Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Iowa, and Minnesota -- but we have our own flaws.

Minnesota won 3 of their last 4 games after firing their defensive coordinator. In those last four games, the opponents only scored 14.8 points per game -- Wisconsin, Purdue, Georgia Tech -- teams that generally scored significantly more than 14.8 ppg. And the Gophers won all three of those games with ease.

It's far too early to say if this past season in Madison was a trend or anomaly for Wisconsin. Even with 8 wins in 2018, Paul Chryst tied Fielding Yost for the second most wins in the first four years in the Big Ten (Urban Meyer is #1). And all of Wisconsin's offensive skill position starters will be returning in 2019.

I personally feel Northwestern should be the favorite going into next season. They went 8-1 in the Big Ten. Pat Fitzgerald proves year-after-year to be the most overachieving coach in the Big Ten (I'd argue he's the single best coach in the Big Ten, now that Urban is gone). Their shiny new transfer quarterback was the #1 nationally-rated pro style QB coming out of high school. And they finally found a running game after their starter retired midseason and their freshman RB significant improved late-season.

I'm not sure what to make of Purdue -- other than they are capable of beating anyone -- and of losing to anyone. Big wins over Ohio State, Boston College, and Iowa. Ugly losses to Eastern Michigan, blown out by Minnesota, and whatever in the hell happened against Auburn. Purdue loses Blough at QB, which is big. They also lose their #1 RB to graduation. They do have Moore returning at WR, however, and he's a future NFLer. And I do like Purdue's coach -- but I won't be surprised if they take a bit of a step back in 2019.

Iowa will always be Iowa. They'll never be bad. Most times, they win 7-9 games. Occasionally they'll surprise and win 10. They are never bad, yet they never really "scare" anyone. The Hawkeyes do return Nate Stanley at QB. And their top two RBs. But they'll be hurting with receiving weapons, as their top three in receptions (two TEs and one WR) are all gone.

Yes, there is no doubt Nebraska improved significantly late-season. But I can counter that some with their schedule. I don't know that NU had a quality win. Yes, they pounded Minnesota -- two weeks prior to their defensive coordinator being fired. Still, nice win, but. Bethune-Cookman, okay. Illinois, umm, okay. And the 9-6 win over a Michigan State team that absolutely sucked when their starting QB went down. Rocky Lombardi was pathetic. Since being named starter late-season, he completed 35%, 37%, and 44% of his passes against Ohio State, Nebraska, and lowly Rutgers (a horrible Rutgers team that only lost 14-10 to Michigan State). Yes, everything about the last month or so of the season was a huge improvement over the start, but there should be some perspective. Nebraska probably wasn't as good as the record indicated late-season, and probably not as bad as it appeared early-season.

Can Nebraska win 8-10 games and possibly the West in 2019? Sure. I don't know that Nebraska is suddenly returning to dominance. That would be a stretch. But I do feel the Big Ten West is wide open -- but I say that also because I don't see a clear indicator that Nebraska is the best of the batch. We do have a much easier schedule, which plays to our advantage. No doubt about it. But if we remove our fandom from the analysis, it's clear that Nebraska still has a ton to prove.

If I was ranking the Big Ten West, 2019 preseason, I'd consider this (although I'd want to do more analysis on returning players and schedules):

1. Northwestern
2. Wisconsin
3. Nebraska
4. Minnesota
5. Iowa
6. Purdue
7. Illinois

 

[Twelve String]

Not Purdue.

Purdue is losing a lot on offense, including their starting QB. Most of the defense is back, but based on the performance against Auburn I'm not sure if that means much. I like our chances against Purdue next year.

Wisconsin is still the team to beat in the west. NU defense needs to show some improvement, which I think is going to happen, but not enough to stop Johnathan Taylor and Company.

 

[Hville]

The West should be fairly wide open and unpredictable in 2019.

The only team I believe has no shot to win the West is Illinois. Otherwise, up for grabs between Nebraska, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Iowa, and even Minnesota.

Sure, we can all list flaws from Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Iowa, and Minnesota -- but we have our own flaws.

Minnesota won 3 of their last 4 games after firing their defensive coordinator. In those last four games, the opponents only scored 14.8 points per game -- Wisconsin, Purdue, Georgia Tech -- teams that generally scored significantly more than 14.8 ppg. And the Gophers won all three of those games with ease.

It's far too early to say if this past season in Madison was a trend or anomaly for Wisconsin. Even with 8 wins in 2018, Paul Chryst tied Fielding Yost for the second most wins in the first four years in the Big Ten (Urban Meyer is #1). And all of Wisconsin's offensive skill position starters will be returning in 2019.

I personally feel Northwestern should be the favorite going into next season. They went 8-1 in the Big Ten. Pat Fitzgerald proves year-after-year to be the most overachieving coach in the Big Ten (I'd argue he's the single best coach in the Big Ten, now that Urban is gone). Their shiny new transfer quarterback was the #1 nationally-rated pro style QB coming out of high school. And they finally found a running game after their starter retired midseason and their freshman RB significant improved late-season.

I'm not sure what to make of Purdue -- other than they are capable of beating anyone -- and of losing to anyone. Big wins over Ohio State, Boston College, and Iowa. Ugly losses to Eastern Michigan, blown out by Minnesota, and whatever in the hell happened against Auburn. Purdue loses Blough at QB, which is big. They also lose their #1 RB to graduation. They do have Moore returning at WR, however, and he's a future NFLer. And I do like Purdue's coach -- but I won't be surprised if they take a bit of a step back in 2019.

Iowa will always be Iowa. They'll never be bad. Most times, they win 7-9 games. Occasionally they'll surprise and win 10. They are never bad, yet they never really "scare" anyone. The Hawkeyes do return Nate Stanley at QB. And their top two RBs. But they'll be hurting with receiving weapons, as their top three in receptions (two TEs and one WR) are all gone.

Yes, there is no doubt Nebraska improved significantly late-season. But I can counter that some with their schedule. I don't know that NU had a quality win. Yes, they pounded Minnesota -- two weeks prior to their defensive coordinator being fired. Still, nice win, but. Bethune-Cookman, okay. Illinois, umm, okay. And the 9-6 win over a Michigan State team that absolutely sucked when their starting QB went down. Rocky Lombardi was pathetic. Since being named starter late-season, he completed 35%, 37%, and 44% of his passes against Ohio State, Nebraska, and lowly Rutgers (a horrible Rutgers team that only lost 14-10 to Michigan State). Yes, everything about the last month or so of the season was a huge improvement over the start, but there should be some perspective. Nebraska probably wasn't as good as the record indicated late-season, and probably not as bad as it appeared early-season.

Can Nebraska win 8-10 games and possibly the West in 2019? Sure. I don't know that Nebraska is suddenly returning to dominance. That would be a stretch. But I do feel the Big Ten West is wide open -- but I say that also because I don't see a clear indicator that Nebraska is the best of the batch. We do have a much easier schedule, which plays to our advantage. No doubt about it. But if we remove our fandom from the analysis, it's clear that Nebraska still has a ton to prove.

If I was ranking the Big Ten West, 2019 preseason, I'd consider this (although I'd want to do more analysis on returning players and schedules):

1. Northwestern
2. Wisconsin
3. Nebraska
4. Minnesota
5. Iowa
6. Purdue
7. Illinois

I'm not as high on Northwestern but pretty much agree with the rest. Northwestern did go 8-1 but didn't look that good doing it. They lose 10 starters including their QB and most of their offensive line. Last year they were on the good side of a lot of close games including the epic meltdown by Nebraska. Any team that can lose to Akron and Duke back to back has some issues too.

 

[Purple Prof]

 

[EastOfEden]

Wetherman has a good fix on things. I worry about our lack of seasoned RBs - potential is one thing, but we need guys that have done it. that's why Mills is so important.

I think if forced I would place Minnesoata at the top, strange as it seems. They were a completely different team after then changed DC, and looked very good. We got them just in time in my opinion. But the differences between all of them other than Illinois is slight, and the winner probably will be decided by injuries and corss over games. No one in the west is getting 11 wins in my opinion, and I would be surprised if anyone got 10.

 

[wcbsas]

Purdue is losing a lot on offense, including their starting QB. Most of the defense is back, but based on the performance against Auburn I'm not sure if that means much. I like our chances against Purdue next year.

Wisconsin is still the team to beat in the west. NU defense needs to show some improvement, which I think is going to happen, but not enough to stop Johnathan Taylor and Company.

I think Wisconsin finishes fourth in the West next year. UW has an extremely unsettled situation at QB with Hornibrook and Coan returning as experienced starters and heralded incoming freshman Mertz. Their o-line will be solid and Taylor the best RB in the nation but ...

Their defense has always solid and they slipped this year. They’ve had a number of NFL players over the years but lose their best athlete TJ Edwards with no replacements in sight. Their defense has quietly been the best part of their program the last four or five years. Not so this year and probably not so next year.

Finally the main reason is that UW finally plays a Nebraska-like conference schedule for once.

 

[wcbsas]

I'm not as high on Northwestern but pretty much agree with the rest. Northwestern did go 8-1 but didn't look that good doing it. They lose 10 starters including their QB and most of their offensive line. Last year they were on the good side of a lot of close games including the epic meltdown by Nebraska. Any team that can lose to Akron and Duke back to back has some issues too.

dont forget NW gets a 5-star recruit transfer from Clemson who will be eligible this year.

 

[HuskerWeatherman]

I'm not as high on Northwestern but pretty much agree with the rest. Northwestern did go 8-1 but didn't look that good doing it. They lose 10 starters including their QB and most of their offensive line. Last year they were on the good side of a lot of close games including the epic meltdown by Nebraska. Any team that can lose to Akron and Duke back to back has some issues too.

But that's how Northwestern always does it. Wins a bunch of ugly games that they probably shouldn't have won. That's the magic of Fitzgerald. And why they should never be discounted.

I don't think losing the QB is necessarily a bad thing. Not when you've got the #1 ranked (2017) pro style QB waiting to take over. And he's not an inexperienced youngster, as he played sparingly (with solid numbers) for Clemson in 2017 and spent 2018 redshirting at Northwestern. He'll be fairly seasoned for a first-time starter.

Granted, there's also rumors of the Green Bay Packers going after Fitzgerald, which would change things significantly.

 

[Pops]

But that's how Northwestern always does it. Wins a bunch of ugly games that they probably shouldn't have won. That's the magic of Fitzgerald. And why they should never be discounted.

I don't think losing the QB is necessarily a bad thing. Not when you've got the #1 ranked (2017) pro style QB waiting to take over. And he's not an inexperienced youngster, as he played sparingly (with solid numbers) for Clemson in 2017 and spent 2018 redshirting at Northwestern. He'll be fairly seasoned for a first-time starter.

Granted, there's also rumors of the Green Bay Packers going after Fitzgerald, which would change things significantly.

I'd say Fitz is best coach in the league. Does so much with less than anyone.

 

[Twelve String]

I think Wisconsin finishes fourth in the West next year. UW has an extremely unsettled situation at QB with Hornibrook and Coan returning as experienced starters and heralded incoming freshman Mertz. Their o-line will be solid and Taylor the best RB in the nation but ...

Their defense has always solid and they slipped this year. They’ve had a number of NFL players over the years but lose their best athlete TJ Edwards with no replacements in sight. Their defense has quietly been the best part of their program the last four or five years. Not so this year and probably not so next year.

Finally the main reason is that UW finally plays a Nebraska-like conference schedule for once.

It’s a tough schedule but they get Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue at home. Not that home field means much anymore, but still it’s better to play the tougher games on your home turf.

The O-line and Johnathan Taylor are exactly why I think they beat us in Lincoln next year.

WU averaged 7.7 yards per carry against our defense in the last game. They were 6 of 12 on third down and 1 of 1 on fourth down. Taylor had over 200 yards rushing. You can’t win many (any?) games with those kind of stats, and I don’t see anything that has changed so dramatically on the NU defense to suggest it won’t be the same next time.

 

[Twelve String]

But that's how Northwestern always does it. Wins a bunch of ugly games that they probably shouldn't have won. That's the magic of Fitzgerald. And why they should never be discounted.

I don't think losing the QB is necessarily a bad thing. Not when you've got the #1 ranked (2017) pro style QB waiting to take over. And he's not an inexperienced youngster, as he played sparingly (with solid numbers) for Clemson in 2017 and spent 2018 redshirting at Northwestern. He'll be fairly seasoned for a first-time starter.

Granted, there's also rumors of the Green Bay Packers going after Fitzgerald, which would change things significantly.

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/20...-to-target-northwestern-coach-pat-fitzgerald/

 

[wcbsas]

It’s a tough schedule but they get Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue at home. Not that home field means much anymore, but still it’s better to play the tougher games on your home turf.

The O-line and Johnathan Taylor are exactly why I think they beat us in Lincoln next year.

WU averaged 7.7 yards per carry against our defense in the last game. They were 6 of 12 on third down and 1 of 1 on fourth down. Taylor had over 200 yards rushing. You can’t win many (any?) games with those kind of stats, and I don’t see anything that has changed so dramatically on the NU defense to suggest it won’t be the same next time.

That was a different Husker team. At the time - winless, just beginning to find its identity.

UW is not getting better defensively. They lose TJ Edwards arguably the B1G DPOY.
UW is likely to not get better offensively. Their QB situation is in flux - I honestly hope Hornibrook wins the job and they’ll lose at least a couple of O-Linemen to the NFL.

We have to get better defensively - everyone acknowledges this.

 

[Twelve String]

That was a different Husker team. At the time - winless, just beginning to find its identity.

UW is not getting better defensively. They lose TJ Edwards arguably the B1G DPOY.
UW is likely to not get better offensively. Their QB situation is in flux - I honestly hope Hornibrook wins the job and they’ll lose at least a couple of O-Linemen to the NFL.

We have to get better defensively - everyone acknowledges this.

My biggest concern is defense. The current players are getting better, no question. But I just don't see where depth/help is coming from anytime soon.

Yes, we seem to be recruiting better players on defense in the 2018 and 2019 classes. But the heavy hitters that could have contributed from the 2018 class were either injured (Wildeman, Rogers, Honas, CJ Smith) or did not make a significant impact ala Breon Dixon. Too much inexperience, not enough reps for that defensive group. And, no guarantee that they will be 100% by the spring, meaning even fewer reps.

It remains to be seen who - if anyone - will step-up from the 2019 class.

You may be right that Wisconsin will have a down year. I hope you are. I'm probably being overly cautious in not raising my expectations. I want to beat them more than any other team on our schedule.

I would love it if Hornibrook was the starting QB. It seems like he has been around for about 10 years.