Locked due to no posts in 60 days. Report 1st post if need unlocked Trimming The Fat

[inthedeed]

it's hard for me to imagine the 2012 edition of the huskers having a turnover free game. where these turnovers occure may have a greater impact on the game than any other statistic. inside the wisconsin redzone, inside the husker redzone or midfield?

 

[Red Reign]

With that being said the same thing goes for Wisconsin...and we as fans of a team often only look at our own faults, injuries etc....

I do like to see/read these articles on statistical probablities, but one thing that they do not, and can not, take into account is injuries. These stats on Nebraska's defense do not take into account the anchor of the D-line (Steinkuhler) will not play Saturday. Same with a key O-lineman (Jackson) missing the game, especially since as center handles the ball on every play. Will the back up make every shot gun snap? One or two errors could be the differnce in the outcome of the game. Can the D=line overcome the lose of their best, most consistent player? How can statistics evauluate and consider these issues? They can't. Statistics are great for looking backwards, but are pretty dicey for looking forward.

 

[Red Reign]

Thank you.... Their top WR is really banged up too....and they really have no one after him that has made any impact....

This logic works both ways. I would agree that it will be hard to replace Steinkuhler and Jackson but on the other hand, I would prefer to do that than replace the QB (Stave) and have my second leading tackler playing his first game in 3 weeks due to a bad hamstring (Borland), if at all. I would agree that the stats can be deceiving, but on the other hand they are dealing with just as much as we are on the injury front.

 

[Bo Pelinis Gum]

As i posted on another thread after watching the game again a couple days ago the stat sheet showed 2 turnovers by NU but i would argue that the roughing the punter was just as bad (rather than us have the ball at the 20 they got it at the 50) as was the stupid penality by Stafford for PI- ball was no way going to be caught and he hit the receiver without knowing where the ball was- he is playning much better as of late (I think he had 5-6 15tarders this year but most were early in the season). That was a 3rd down so we would have had the ball there as well.

Those are 4 pretty big errors- 3 of which they scored on and limited our chance of extra possessions. If we were healthy i would worry less but still am confident.

Those were HUGE game changing penalites. We played arguably our worst half of football all year that game, and still won. If we play error free, this game isnt even close. But we are still waiting for that error free game...

 

[WestTexasHusker]

Thanks for posting RR, really good article. I have been to both of our contests with Wisconsin and I really feel this time if we can be fundementally sound on defense and we hang onto the ball on offense we will cruise to a comfortable win. BBR

Since when have we ever hung onto the ball?

 

[Pop Corn]

I do like to see/read these articles on statistical probablities, but one thing that they do not, and can not, take into account is injuries. These stats on Nebraska's defense do not take into account the anchor of the D-line (Steinkuhler) will not play Saturday. Same with a key O-lineman (Jackson) missing the game, especially since as center handles the ball on every play. Will the back up make every shot gun snap? One or two errors could be the differnce in the outcome of the game. Can the D=line overcome the lose of their best, most consistent player? How can statistics evauluate and consider these issues? They can't. Statistics are great for looking backwards, but are pretty dicey for looking forward.

Pretty much the way I look at it also and the reason that I remain skeptical of the effusive optimism. That article cited by RR does make a CYA type caveat with the following that agrees with your take.

Filtering that first game through some of the advanced statistics above shows that it will likely be a closer game than that. Nebraska might have marginally less success on offense and Wisconsin might have a little more. Also, football isn’t played in a vacuum. Sudden change plays – turnovers, blocked punts, special teams returns – can and do upset the statistical apple cart.

 

[Red Don]

Very cool article that does lots of number crunching. On Saturday though, the crunching will be happening on the field.

Great! Doc. Like the Economist, who can explain Everything; But predict Nothing (with certainty).

 

[Bo Pelinis Gum]

I do like to see/read these articles on statistical probablities, but one thing that they do not, and can not, take into account is injuries. These stats on Nebraska's defense do not take into account the anchor of the D-line (Steinkuhler) will not play Saturday. Same with a key O-lineman (Jackson) missing the game, especially since as center handles the ball on every play. Will the back up make every shot gun snap? One or two errors could be the differnce in the outcome of the game. Can the D=line overcome the lose of their best, most consistent player? How can statistics evauluate and consider these issues? They can't. Statistics are great for looking backwards, but are pretty dicey for looking forward.

Some good points in there. Losing Baker stinks, no doubt about that. But this team does not have a balanced offense. They rely on Ball/White to carry the load. Losing our best interior d lineman hurts, but puting 8 or 9 in the box is hard to run on even if you have very average d-tackles. And thats more than likely what we will do. We have VERY capable corners to cover their receivers one on one. If they want to win this game they are going to have to find success running into an 8 or 9 man box, or trying to air it out. Both work within our favor. Not only are they on their third string QB, with their best WR still somewhat questionable, but their O-line is far from great in pass pro, and we have a first team all conference d-end who plays like hes possesed. IMO our offense is playing at a level that very few defenses will be able to stop, and our D is still pretty decent even with Baker being out.

 

[Red Reign]

Sort of like your skeptical CYA?....

Pretty much the way I look at it also and the reason that I remain skeptical of the effusive optimism. That article cited by RR does make a CYA type caveat with the following that agrees with your take.