Here’s an easy example. Nebraska’s offense ranks first in the Big Ten, Wisconsin’s ranks fourth. Easy enough to understand, both offenses are capable of moving the ball. Limit it to conference play only and the Huskers fall to third while the Badgers stay at fourth. What that raw rankings don’t consider is that, in conference play, Nebraska played against the eight best defenses it could have faced. Wisconsin got to face Illinois (10[SUP]th[/SUP] in total defense), Purdue (11[SUP]th[/SUP]), and Indiana (12[SUP]th[/SUP]).
In terms of score, it wasn’t very true. Nebraska was more than three points better than Wisconsin in September. The two short fields mentioned above resulted in 14 Wisconsin points. On the stat sheet, Nebraska dominated in almost every other category – 24 first downs to 17, 259 rushing yards to 56, 440 total yards to 295. On the score sheet, the difference was a field goal. (Incidentally, both teams missed one in that game.)
But the number that really jumps out is three. That’s the number of punts Wisconsin forced the first time around and Nebraska’s fewest for any Big Ten game. The Badgers forced two three-and-outs in the first half, but the only punt of the second half came after an eight-play drive where Nebraska bled 4:38 off the clock in the fourth quarter while maintaining a three-point lead. Neither team likely came away dissatisfied with that drive.
Overall, Wisconsin really struggled to stop Nebraska the first time out, which puts me in a unique position. In general, I’m cautious when it comes to Nebraska’s chances, perhaps overly so, but in terms of pure team strength I think the Huskers are about two scores better than Wisconsin.
