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Tournament Filed Projections: Update 4/29

BraskyMan said:
D1Baseball field projections 4/29: http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/field-of-64-projections-week-12/

Los Angeles Regional
1 UCLA* (1)
2 Virginia
3 UC Irvine
4 Bakersfield*

Iowa City Regional
1 UC Santa Barbara*
2 Iowa
3 Kentucky
4 Creighton*

Baton Rouge Regional
1 LSU* (2)
2 Memphis
3 Louisiana-Lafayette*
4 Norfolk State*

Los Angeles Regional
1 Southern California
2 Ole Miss
3 Cal State Fullerton
4 San Francisco*

Louisville Regional
1 Louisville* (3)
2 Ohio State
3 Bradley
4 Rider*

Jupiter Regional
1 Florida Atlantic*
2 North Carolina
3 Michigan State
4 Florida Gulf Coast*

College Station Regional
1 Texas A&M (4)
2 Oregon State
3 Southeastern Louisiana*
4 Illinois-Chicago*

Stillwater Regional
1 Oklahoma State
2 Missouri State
3 Oral Roberts*
4 Southeast Missouri State*

Fort Worth Regional
1 TCU* (5)
2 Houston*
3 Missouri
4 Stony Brook*

Dallas Regional
1 Dallas Baptist*
2 Arkansas
3 Rice
4 Central Michigan*

Nashville Regional
1 Vanderbilt (6)
2 Maryland
3 UNC Wilmington
4 Columbia*

Coral Gables Regional
1 Miami
2 South Florida
3 California
4 Rhode Island*

Tallahassee Regional
1 Florida State (7)
2 Auburn
3 East Carolina
4 Alabama State*

Gainesville Regional
1 Florida
2 Radford*
3 Georgia Tech
4 Mercer*

Champaign Regional
1 Illinois* (8)
2 College of Charleston*
3 Notre Dame
4 Bryant*

Phoenix Regional
1 Arizona State
2 Coastal Carolina
3 Nevada*
4 Navy*
Click to expand...

Huskers, oh, Huskers, wherefore art thou, Huskers? :banghead:
 

BraskyMan said:
NU out of D1baseballs latest projection....they have replaced NU with MSU.

Amazingly, despite getting swept by Iowa, NU's RPI now sits at 12 with a SOS of 11. Unfortunately, it is well documented how terrible NU has been against top 50 RPI teams; however, it also has the best record in the country against RPI 51-100. The committee has an extensive history of being a slave to RPI, so if NU maintains this RPI, I cannot believe NU will be left out until I see it.

That said, without significant improvement this final month, NU will likely be two and out even if they do make it. Unfortunately, I don't have a lot of hope that the offense is going to suddenly figure it out; however, if they can start getting timely hits, they can be a dangerous team still.
Click to expand...


The committee has an extensive history of being a slave to RPI..........

Well, would you bet on it? I would not, myself!
 
CrnhskrBob said:
The committee has an extensive history of being a slave to RPI..........

Well, would you bet on it? I would not, myself!
Click to expand...

Honestly, with that RPI, I would. It is debatable whether the RPI should be followed so strictly or not, but right or wrong, the committee has relied on RPI far more in baseball than in other sports. I'm not arguing for what I think NU deserves (I have many concerns about the way the team is playing now); however, this is simply the way the committee has predictably operated. For years, top 45 RPI has kinda been the unofficial mark; not a guarantee, but top 45 gives you a great chance to get in and few teams get in outside the top 45. Historically, top 32 has basically been a lock. Essentially, the only time a top 32 team has been left out (and it's rare) is if they are below .500 overall and therefore not eligible. There is a reason Boyd's World uses these as a threshold for the RPI Needs Report. Furthermore, rarely does the committee reach outside of the top 16-20 RPI for host bids.

I am really curious to see how the committee treats NU this year. It's possible NU becomes the RPI exception; I imagine that NU's resume this year is probably a pretty unique case. The craziest part is that, right now, only 3-4 games is probably the difference between NU hosting vs. being on the bubble (and possibly out). I cannot imagine another case like that before. If NU wins one of the final two against OSU and gets a couple between Maryland/Iowa, we would be discussing hosting right now and the outside chance at a national seed with a strong finish at Illinois and the B1G tournament. Just those 3-4 wins would put NU right on par with Miami currently (and possibly even a little stronger except for conference record). Yet with those losses instead, we are talking about NU not even in the field; it's an unbelievable case really.

All things considered, I would be surprised if NU is left out (assuming NU takes care of business the next 2 weeks). NU has some really strong parts of its resume and some really weak spots; my best guess right now is that NU gets treated somewhere in between those two extremes. The record against the top 50 RPI will be held against it in terms of seeding, but will not knock NU out.

That said, none of it will matter if NU doesn't start playing better on weekends. If not, it will be a quick exit even if they get in the field.
 
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BraskyMan said:
Honestly, with that RPI, I would. It is debatable whether the RPI should be followed so strictly or not, but right or wrong, the committee has relied on RPI far more in baseball than in other sports. I'm not arguing for what I think NU deserves (I have many concerns about the way the team is playing now); however, this is simply the way the committee has predictably operated. For years, top 45 RPI has kinda been the unofficial mark; not a guarantee, but top 45 gives you a great chance to get in and few teams get in outside the top 45. Historically, top 32 has basically been a lock. Essentially, the only time a top 32 team has been left out (and it's rare) is if they are below .500 overall and therefore not eligible. There is a reason Boyd's World uses these as a threshold for the RPI Needs Report. Furthermore, rarely does the committee reach outside of the top 16-20 RPI for host bids.

I am really curious to see how the committee treats NU this year. It's possible NU becomes the RPI exception; I imagine that NU's resume this year is probably a pretty unique case. The craziest part is that, right now, only 3-4 games is probably the difference between NU hosting vs. being on the bubble (and possibly out). I cannot imagine another case like that before. If NU wins one of the final two against OSU and gets a couple between Maryland/Iowa, we would be discussing hosting right now and the outside chance at a national seed with a strong finish at Illinois and the B1G tournament. Just those 3-4 wins would put NU right on par with Miami currently (and possibly even a little stronger except for conference record). Yet with those losses instead, we are talking about NU not even in the field; it's an unbelievable case really.

All things considered, I would be surprised if NU is left out (assuming NU takes care of business the next 2 weeks). NU has some really strong parts of its resume and some really weak spots; my best guess right now is that NU gets treated somewhere in between those two extremes. The record against the top 50 RPI will be held against it in terms of seeding, but will not knock NU out.

That said, none of it will matter if NU doesn't start playing better on weekends. If not, it will be a quick exit even if they get in the field.
Click to expand...

I hate to sound paranoid, but I, also, wonder how they will treat Nebraska. Yes, deservedly, or not, it just seems iffy to me. I hope you are right about getting in. But, if we don't play well down the stretch, how badly will our RPI drop? Certainly, if we lose the series to NW, I think we screwed ourselves! :eek:

The biggest test for our Huskers? How about winning on the road? Let's see what happens! :)
 
CrnhskrBob said:
I hate to sound paranoid, but I, also, wonder how they will treat Nebraska. Yes, deservedly, or not, it just seems iffy to me. I hope you are right about getting in. But, if we don't play well down the stretch, how badly will our RPI drop? Certainly, if we lose the series to NW, I think we screwed ourselves! :eek:

The biggest test for our Huskers? How about winning on the road? Let's see what happens! :)
Click to expand...

NU likely guarantees itself a top 30 RPI with just 3-4 more wins by the RPI Needs Report; you can see what criteria are likely needed to reach various RPI thresholds below: http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html#N
Nebraska

Remaining: 3 home, 6 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 12
ROWP: 0.512

Top 45:

0 home wins, 2 road wins
1 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 32:

0 home wins, 3 road wins
1 home wins, 2 road wins
2 home wins, 1 road wins
3 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 16:

1 home wins, 5 road wins
2 home wins, 4 road wins
3 home wins, 3 road wins

Top 8:

3 home wins, 6 road wins
Click to expand...

Clearly NU can't drop series to Northwestern or Purdue. A series loss to Northwestern would likely not kill NU's RPI, but they cannot afford to provide any more ammunition to be excluded. However, to that point, my concern right now is less about NU making the tournament and more about playing better down the stretch.
 
CrnhskrBob said:
Shoulda', coulda', woulda' Didn't happen, period! Moot, my friend. :(
Click to expand...

CBob, that was not the intent when I originally brought this up. The point is, a few games in either direction is typically the difference in being a 1 seed vs a 2 seed, or being a 3 seed vs missing the tournament, etc.. Simply, NU is in a unique position right now where merely 3 games could literally be the difference between NU potentially being a 1 seed or missing the tournament altogether. It is quite remarkable and I am not aware of any other example of such an extreme swing based on such narrow a margin.
 
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BraskyMan said:
CBob, that was not the intent when I originally brought this up. The point is, a few games in either direction is typically the difference in being a 1 seed vs a 2 seed, or being a 3 seed vs missing the tournament, etc.. Simply, NU is in a unique position right now where merely 3 games could literally be the difference between NU potentially being a 1 seed or missing the tournament altogether. It is quite remarkable and I am not aware of any other example of such an extreme swing based on such narrow a margin.
Click to expand...

I just remarked on how we fell on our faces, playing those two. :(
 
From Eric Sorenson today: Off The Top Of My Head. http://www.d1baseball.com/features/sorenson-off-the-top-of-my-head-7/

Three bids? Forget that, April showed us that the Big 10 has become a six-bid league.
Boy, another Northern conference that is racking up this year is the B1G. April only helped the Monsters of the Midway as there are six teams in the top 33 of the RPI as of this typing.
Here are the locks for an At-Large bid, baring an 0-for-everything ending:
* No. 11 Ohio State
* No. 12 Nebraska
* No. 21 Illinois
* No. 26 Iowa


Here are the near-locks, but still need to keep winning:
* No. 30 Michigan State
* No. 33 Maryland


If you’re a Big 10 dreamer, here are a few more who still have a shot:
* No. 63 Indiana
* No. 64 Michigan
Click to expand...
 
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