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The fallacy of "Close"









Hville said:
Well I guess it shows you can find a statistic for anything if you get off the beaten path. Here is the official NCAA stats where they list it as fumbles lost.

They don’t have a stat for interceptions that weren’t caught.

www.ncaa.com

NCAA College Football FBS current team Stats | NCAA.com

Discover the current NCAA FBS Football leaders in every stats category, as well as historic leaders.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com
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lol so you think that's off the beaten path? Anyway have it your way the bottom line is to many fumbles recovered or not is an offense killer imo. I believe an interception that wasn't caught is called an incomplete pass! lol
 
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We don’t get to have it both ways. We can’t in good faith argue that the Nebraska program was “close” to being a winner at the end of 2021 when they have made wholesale changes throughout the offseason.

While you might choose to look at that as a glass half empty opinion on the 2021 season, I see it as a very positive take on Nebraska’s prospects for 2022: Frost saw the deficiencies within his program – in schematics, development, talent, depth, game day roles, and more.
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I also do not agree with the thesis … close losses do not necessarily mean anything but that we lost a bunch of games by 8 points or less.

I can agree that NU was probably the best 3-9 team in the nation.
I can also agree that improvement in say special teams could’ve meant 2 or 3 more wins.

But … there are not many (if any) here on this board that didn’t see anything but a flawed team, particularly with coaching (ex: o-line), scheme (ex: 2AM right, 2AM left, 2AM up the middle).

If NU could’ve had some of those close losses converted into wins say 6-6 or 7-5 last year they still would’ve been a flawed team. There are some of us, including me that think an 8, 9 or gasp even a 10 win season is possible if all these changes coalesce in a positive manner.

Point being the assumption that we were “close” last season is not the same as a bunch of close losses. The author is right … 8 close losses don’t necessarily make us “close” … but there aren’t many (in my opinion) who think that we will be good this year because we were “close” last year.
 
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I do not disagree with the overall concept. Just hos particular take on it.
wcbsas said:
I also do not agree with the thesis … close losses do not necessarily mean anything but that we lost a bunch of games by 8 points or less.

I can agree that NU was probably the best 3-9 team in the nation.
I can also agree that improvement in say special teams could’ve meant 2 or 3 more wins.

But … there are not many (if any) here on this board that didn’t see anything but a flawed team, particularly with coaching (ex: o-line), scheme (ex: 2AM right, 2AM left, 2AM up the middle).

If NU could’ve had some of those close losses converted into wins say 6-6 or 7-5 last year they still would’ve been a flawed team. There are some of us, including me that think an 8, 9 or gasp even a 10 win season is possible if all these changes coalesce in a positive manner.

Point being the assumption that we were “close” last season is not the same as a bunch of close losses. The author is right … 8 close losses don’t necessarily make us “close” … but there aren’t many (in my opinion) who think that we will be good this year because we were “close” last year.
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Appreciate a thoughtful piece. I agree “never quit” was a key characteristic of team and expectations might be overly affected by “close” mentality.

Still, I think 4th quarter leads (2 on the road) against 3 ranked teams where crazy meltdowns - errant punt, QB held up and mugged, and horrible punt blocking - showed a team close to being a bowl team at least. Add spotting another ranked team in Wisconsin a TD on a kick return and then knocking on end zone to tie or win at end of game. Not too mention road game at Oklahoma with blocked FG for points and still having ball in your hands with time to win.

Those all show close from a talent standpoint. Many aspects contributed. Not anywhere close like a 1993 to National Championship,
 
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