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Predicting Every B1G Teams 2022 Record

wcbsas

All Big 10
15 Year Member
Just pull a Michigan State. What were they? 9-0 and raked #4? Something like that. Then the 59-7 blasting by Ohio State. The year before they blew. No reason Nebraska can’t do the same, with this schedule, less the blowout, which would equate to Michigan this year. Going to have more talent than 10 of the 12 teams they play. Staff needs to earn that money!
Mel Tucker did to MSU last season exactly what SF et al did this season. Revamped the roster with transfers and new incoming players.

Now MT has definitely been a better game day coach than SF but I am hopeful that the influx of new talent can be molded into a good team.
 

wcbsas

All Big 10
15 Year Member
One other point … NU’s win total prediction, per this podcast, from Vegas is 7.5 wins for the season. Do you take that bet? If it were 6.5 I would 7.5 makes me anxious.
 

TFrazier

2022 No More Kool-Aid
10 Year Member
One other point … NU’s win total prediction, per this podcast, from Vegas is 7.5 wins for the season. Do you take that bet? If it were 6.5 I would 7.5 makes me anxious.

Based on recent trends/seasons…I wouldn’t take over 6.5 or 7.5. However, there are plenty that would.
 
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Husker In Oklahoma

All American
15 Year Member
Mel Tucker did to MSU last season exactly what SF et al did this season. Revamped the roster with transfers and new incoming players.

Now MT has definitely been a better game day coach than SF but I am hopeful that the influx of new talent can be molded into a good team.
That’s what you hope for. For sure. Key word is ‘hope’. Lol.
 

Cornjob

Recruit
Based on recent trends/seasons…I wouldn’t take over 6.5 or 7.5. However, there are plenty that would.
I think this season they exorcise the demons and play at their potential. My kneejerk is to say 7.5 is optimistic, but when I look at the actual schedule and the status of the teams on there, I think they'll eclipse it. If games like Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State were coin flips that Nebraska lost last season, I can buy the notion that those level of opponents are coin flips again:
Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa this year. I'll leave OU off and call it a loss for simplicity, but I think Venables may get exposed in that game.

"Should wins":
Northwestern, North Dakota, Georgia Southern, Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois (6)

Close but favored:
Minnesota, Purdue (recent teams would lose these, but a step forward I'd say win one) (1)

Coin flips or slight underdogs (basing this on how close last year's games were):
Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa (I won't be surprised to win any of these, but call it 1 win out of 3 to be conservative) (1)

Left off:
Oklahoma (0)
I'm OK forecasting it as a loss, but I actually think this could be the moment the nation starts to realize Nebraska is breaking through. However, the national media story would probably be a lot more about how Venables screwed up. There's a decent chance the Huskers enter this as a hyped up home crowd and a 3-0 team who remembers playing the Sooners close last year. I see this as a winnable game that will be a fun one to watch.

I get 8 wins out of that schedule, even with allowing for stumbling once or twice in games they "should" win and continuing to lose the 50/50 games more than winning them. If this team proves it can execute a 2 minute drill to produce a FG, they'll win more than 8 from that list.

I think the 7.5 line is reasonable. If you pretend its the exact same Nebraska team as last season, take the under. If you think the coaching leads them to a legitimate step forward, this schedule sets up nicely in a way no schedule has for Frost since he's been here.
 

TFrazier

2022 No More Kool-Aid
10 Year Member
I think this season they exorcise the demons and play at their potential. My kneejerk is to say 7.5 is optimistic, but when I look at the actual schedule and the status of the teams on there, I think they'll eclipse it. If games like Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State were coin flips that Nebraska lost last season, I can buy the notion that those level of opponents are coin flips again:
Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa this year. I'll leave OU off and call it a loss for simplicity, but I think Venables may get exposed in that game.

"Should wins":
Northwestern, North Dakota, Georgia Southern, Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois (6)

Close but favored:
Minnesota, Purdue (recent teams would lose these, but a step forward I'd say win one) (1)

Coin flips or slight underdogs (basing this on how close last year's games were):
Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa (I won't be surprised to win any of these, but call it 1 win out of 3 to be conservative) (1)

Left off:
Oklahoma (0)
I'm OK forecasting it as a loss, but I actually think this could be the moment the nation starts to realize Nebraska is breaking through. However, the national media story would probably be a lot more about how Venables screwed up. There's a decent chance the Huskers enter this as a hyped up home crowd and a 3-0 team who remembers playing the Sooners close last year. I see this as a winnable game that will be a fun one to watch.

I get 8 wins out of that schedule, even with allowing for stumbling once or twice in games they "should" win and continuing to lose the 50/50 games more than winning them. If this team proves it can execute a 2 minute drill to produce a FG, they'll win more than 8 from that list.

I think the 7.5 line is reasonable. If you pretend its the exact same Nebraska team as last season, take the under. If you think the coaching leads them to a legitimate step forward, this schedule sets up nicely in a way no schedule has for Frost since he's been here.

Thanks for the write up and thoughts…I appreciate the time/effort.

I am not a betting person. However, given recent trends and end of season records, personally I would be in wait/see mode regardless of all the changes (improvements?) made.

Quite a few things need to happen to go from a 3-9 team to winning over 7-8 games…hopefully they will and Husker fans can enjoy the next off season.
 
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Cornjob

Recruit
Thanks for the write up and thoughts…I appreciate the time/effort.

I am not a betting person. However, given recent trends and end of season records, personally I would be in wait/see mode regardless of all the changes (improvements?) made.

Quite a few things need to happen to go from a 3-9 team to winning over 7-8 games…hopefully they will and Husker fans can enjoy the next off season.
I don’t gamble either. I could never stand the idea of giving up my hard-earned money over chance events.

Although I wouldn’t bet on it, I think it’s reasonable to expect 7-8 wins. This season has potential to be a lot more pleasant as a fan than we’ve had in quite a while. We’ve all been burned a few times lately. It’s easy to expect the worst, but this schedule looks more promising than that to me.
 

wcbsas

All Big 10
15 Year Member
Your approach is very logical and practical but based on 4 previous SF years have the following flaws:

1) “Should“ win games - in the SF era against NW, Illinois, Rutgers and Indiana we are 5 wins and 5 losses. Your predictions of 6 wins should be more like 4 wins.

2) “Close but favored” - in the SF era against Minnesota and Purdue we are 2 wins and 6 losses. Your prediction of 1 win should probably be more like -0- wins.

3) “Coin flips” - in the SF era against Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan we are 0 wins and 9 losses. Your prediction of 1 win should be more like -0- wins.

That would suggest 4 less wins then your prediction.

I understand the belief that special teams should be better, OLine should be better, offensive coaching should be better and the talent infusion should make things better. The number of one score losses last year should also provide some optimism.

I’m an optimist and will probably submit 8 or 9 wins in the season record prediction contest but right now realistically I only see on paper 5 or 6 wins.
 

TFrazier

2022 No More Kool-Aid
10 Year Member
I don’t gamble either. I could never stand the idea of giving up my hard-earned money over chance events.

Although I wouldn’t bet on it, I think it’s reasonable to expect 7-8 wins. This season has potential to be a lot more pleasant as a fan than we’ve had in quite a while. We’ve all been burned a few times lately. It’s easy to expect the worst, but this schedule looks more promising than that to me.

This isn’t the first time in the last 4 years that Nebraska has had a favorable schedule. Let’s hope it works out.
 
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Cornjob

Recruit
This isn’t the first time in the last 4 years that Nebraska has had a favorable schedule. Let’s hope it works out.
Maybe I'm misremembering. But when I look at the West Division opponents I don't remember it setting up this favorably before. I guess the whole West has 2 of the cross-overs as road games. The cross-overs:

Wisconsin: @ OSU, @ Mich State, Maryland (2 tough games)
Purdue: Penn State, @ Maryland, @ Indiana (1 tough game)
Northwestern: @ Penn St, @ Maryland, OSU (2 tough games)
Minnesota: @ Mich State, @ Penn State, Rutgers (2 tough games)
Iowa: @ Rutgers, Michigan, @ OSU (2 tough games)
Illinois: @ Indiana, Michigan, @ Mich State (2 tough games)
Nebraska: Indiana, @ Rutgers, @ Michigan (1 tough game)

Looking at those schedules, whose would you rather have over Nebraska's? I think Purdue is the only divisional opponent that has an argument for an easier conference schedule than Nebraska. A lot depends on whether a team like Maryland or Penn State end up being surprisingly good or surprisingly bad. But if you go by their predicted performance, the Huskers' schedule sets up nicely.

They also don't play the tough opponents until later in the season, with the exception of the Oklahoma game. The team can try to build some positive momentum for the first season in a long time.

Yes, I know any team can beat any team. I'm not counting Indiana and Rutgers as automatic wins. But they are games that Nebraska should be favored, and a bowl-caliber Nebraska team should win those games. It will be demonstrated on the field. But I think all things being equal that Nebraska has a decent chance to challenge for the division if the ball gets rolling.

Purdue becomes an opponent to watch closely early in the season, as they have a favorable path in the conference schedule too, even moreso if Penn State is not strong. That game is the first game of the season for both teams, and one worth noting for West Division ramifications.

If there was another time in the past 4 years when Nebraska had a favorable conference schedule like this, someone will have to point it out. I sure don't remember.
 
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Cornjob

Recruit
Your approach is very logical and practical but based on 4 previous SF years have the following flaws:

1) “Should“ win games - in the SF era against NW, Illinois, Rutgers and Indiana we are 5 wins and 5 losses. Your predictions of 6 wins should be more like 4 wins.

2) “Close but favored” - in the SF era against Minnesota and Purdue we are 2 wins and 6 losses. Your prediction of 1 win should probably be more like -0- wins.

3) “Coin flips” - in the SF era against Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan we are 0 wins and 9 losses. Your prediction of 1 win should be more like -0- wins.

That would suggest 4 less wins then your prediction.

I understand the belief that special teams should be better, OLine should be better, offensive coaching should be better and the talent infusion should make things better. The number of one score losses last year should also provide some optimism.

I’m an optimist and will probably submit 8 or 9 wins in the season record prediction contest but right now realistically I only see on paper 5 or 6 wins.
I think I made it pretty clear that I baked in an assumption that Nebraska takes a legit step forward. I also explicitly stated that if Nebraska plays equal to last year's team, take the 'under'. If we're just going to project the last 4 years' record, its ALWAYS going to be the Under for predictions like this. I think that particular point has been made clearly on this board many times.

Its like Pee Wee's Big Adventure, when Pee Wee said he didn't need to see the movie because he'd lived it. We all suffered through the results you cite.
 
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wcbsas

All Big 10
15 Year Member
I think I made it pretty clear that I baked in an assumption that Nebraska takes a legit step forward. I also explicitly stated that if Nebraska plays equal to last year's team, take the 'under'. If we're just going to project the last 4 years' record, its ALWAYS going to be the Under for predictions like this. I think that particular point has been made clearly on this board many times.

Its like Pee Wee's Big Adventure, when Pee Wee said he didn't need to see the movie because he'd lived it. We all suffered through the results you cite.
 

Hooked on Huskers

I'm old as a rock
15 Year Member
Huskers @ North by Northwest (Evanston) -- W ....... wait, SF is in charge, thus L. Bank of Excuses will be open.
Hoosiers @ Huskers -- W
Huskers @ Rutgers -- L
Huskers @ Purdoo -- L
Chief Illiniwek @ Huskers -- W
Rodents @ Huskers -- L
Huskers @ Meechickens -- L
Wiskys @ Huskers -- L
Huskers @ Ditch Chickens -- L

Improvement (2W-7L). Last year, (1W-8L) :Woohoo:

Unfortunately, no bowl bound (again)
Best scenario, final standings: 0W-0L ..... because cancel 2022 schedule (COVID mutant surge). Hey, undefeated !! :Banana:
 
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