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Locked due to no posts in 60 days. Report 1st post if need unlocked Nebraska's Defense versus Opponents' Offense

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HuskerWeatherman

HuskerWeatherman

Feral Cat
20 Year Member
All sorts of fun numbers to go through. Here is a start.

I was curious as to the quality of offenses the Husker defense has faced. This season. And comparing that with prior seasons. It might be interesting to look back as far as possible, but for now, I'm focusing on the Pelini era (and just for the heck of it, I threw in 2007, when we know our defense was horrible).

Not surprising (at least to me), the 2013 Blackshirts faced the worst collection of offenses in this study (2007-2013).

I also came across a quite surprising trend. Each season since 2007, the opponent's offenses, on average, have ranked worse than the prior season.

Average total offense national rank of Nebraska's opponents (FCS games are excluded):

2013: 73
2012: 66
2011: 62
2010: 61
2009: 54
2008: 50
2007: 39

And here's Nebraska's total defense ranking for each of those seasons (granted, this season still has one game remaining, so we can update this later):

2013: 36
2012: 35
2011: 37
2010: 11
2009: 7
2008: 55
2007: 112

Our defense's ranking has remained about the same the, 2011 through 2013. Though the rank of the offenses we've faced has gotten progressively worse. I still basically see an NU defense that slows down poor offenses and gets ripped by quality offenses. I don't know if that's changed in any of the past three seasons. Yes, I believe our defense improved in 2013 as the season progressed -- but it's still quite debatable just how much. This season, Nebraska faced four teams ranked in the top 50 for total offense. However, 3 of those 4 were in the first four FBS games NU played this season (this will change, however, with the addition of Georgia -- though they are certainly not the same offense without Murray, but that shouldn't count against NU based on pure numbers). I could also argue that the two top offenses we faced in-conference (Illinois, Penn State) were in the worst weather conditions we dealt with all season (strongest winds this season against Illinois; worst overall weather with cold and snow against Penn State -- neither was ideal for offenses to be overly productive through the air -- but games like this happen to all teams.

If I have time, I'd be curious to see how Nebraska's opponents total offense average stacked up against other teams' opponents total offense ranking. Anyhow, for now.... something to mull over.
 
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If you're curious as to the total offense rank of conference opponents only:

2013: 83
2012: 74
2011: 67
2010: 54
2009: 53
2008: 32
2007: 38

(You probably didn't need me to tell you that, as a whole, the Big Ten offenses are pathetic -- and in 2013, we skipped playing the top three offenses in the conference: Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Indiana.)
 
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Interesting. I wonder how the move from the Big 12 to the Big Ten affected those numbers, specifically moving from a league that plays a lot more offense to a league that plays a lot more defense. That seems like it could skew both sets of numbers.

It would also be interesting to have access to an RPI type of rating for offenses, where the strength of our opponents' opponents' defenses, etc., were factored in.

It would be fun to have access to all the stats so one could look at whatever comparisons came to mind.
 



SoCalRed said:
Weatherman, what's your point?
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I think the point is that even though there's no denying the overall improvement of our defense from the beginning of the season the quality of the offenses we faced were over that span was not all that impressive and probably contributed (at least partially) to the improved defensive stats. It's pretty hard to argue with the numbers.

Georgia will be a much better test of HWM's theory. Even without Murray they will be one the best (if not the best) offense we will have faced this season.
 
HuskerWeatherman said:
If you're curious as to the total offense rank of conference opponents only:

2013: 83
2012: 74
2011: 67
2010: 54
2009: 53
2008: 32
2007: 38

(You probably didn't need me to tell you that, as a whole, the Big Ten offenses are pathetic -- and in 2013, we skipped playing the top three offenses in the conference: Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Indiana.)
Click to expand...

Maybe their offenses were top three because they didn't play us?
 
HuskerRef said:
I think the point is that even though there's no denying the overall improvement of our defense from the beginning of the season the quality of the offenses we faced were over that span was not all that impressive and probably contributed (at least partially) to the improved defensive stats. It's pretty hard to argue with the numbers.

Georgia will be a much better test of HWM's theory. Even without Murray they will be one the best (if not the best) offense we will have faced this season.
Click to expand...

You severely underestimate your good buddy SoCal. Guarantee he's crunching numbers right now in hopes of refuting what should be obvious to the naked eye.
 




CombatTargeteer said:
My naked eye told me the defense improved during the season.
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Mine too. It also told me they were playing some pretty bad offenses. As I've stated before, every team is their own biggest opponent, and in that respect the defense definitely showed some improvement. However, I'd prefer to see them play against FSU, Auburn, Baylor, Oregon, or Texas A&M to have a more accurate gauge as to how much they have improved.
 
CombatTargeteer said:
Maybe their offenses were top three because they didn't play us?
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A game against Nebraska would have been only 1/12th of the total. Even had Nebraska's defense played well against OSU, Wisconsin, or Indiana, it wouldn't have been enough to remove them from the top three offenses in the conference. And there's also the chance Nebraska's defense would have struggled playing those three. That, we will never know. But be certain, those were the top 3 offenses... we didn't play any of them... and even if we had, they still would have been top 3.
 
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Red October said:
4 losses to 4 bowl attendees. 1 BCS Bowl entrant. and a near loss to non qualifier.
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Our biggest win was to either to 7-5 Michigan (who managed to lose 5 of their last 7 and 4 of their last 5) or 7-5 Penn State. That's fine, decent wins... but the fact that we struggled to our only two semi-quality wins against truly mediocre teams is hardly something you'd want to hang your hat on. Not when you also have four losses (and hopefully not five) on the season. And that's why Massey's computer composite had Nebraska ranked 43rd. I think that's quite reasonable. If there is anything to be pleased with from the 2013 season, it's the hope that we have a lot of pieces in place moving forward into 2014 for great improvement. Otherwise, even several of our wins in 2013 were by the skin of our teeth -- against average teams. Certainly, can't discount injuries, but regardless, I simply don't see a lot to make a Husker fan happy about the season -- unless we lower our standards.

Looking forward to the bowl game and next season. Let's see what happens. I'm not going to say we can't be much better in 2014. But I'm also not going to guarantee you we will. The only thing we have to go on is what has happened to get to this point. Beyond that, it's speculation -- with valid opinions on both sides of the fence. I'm much more "I'll believe it when I see it," however. Regardless, I'm back to critiquing the quality of our team and coaching -- rather than focusing on Bo's personality type. :)
 

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