Nebraska at Maryland Gameday Weather Forecast -- Saturday AM Update, Page two, Post #25

[HuskerWeatherman]

I can confirm the trend @Huskerthom mentioned earlier today.

There are three major computer models all trending slower with the arrival of the rain. Two of the three suggest a few scattered light rain showers in the area Saturday late-afternoon. All three have significant rain Saturday night.

Again, these are computer models. They will change. Since they are in general agreement, I give them a bit more credence than if they were all over the place. But we are still most of three days away with this. More times than not (not all but more times) computer models speed up systems when you get into the 24-36 hour window. So I'd tend to think we'll have a much better idea by Friday morning (and I will update then).

As mentioned earlier, it's still a greater than 80% chance it will rain on Saturday. It's really just determining the timing. Whether it's in there Saturday afternoon or mostly/completely holds until Saturday night. Granted, with the 3:30PM kickoff, even a later arrival could see the rain threat increasing late in the game.

One last note for now: I don't believe wind will be a significant factor.

 

[Huskerthom]

I can confirm the trend @Huskerthom mentioned earlier today.

There are three major computer models all trending slower with the arrival of the rain. Two of the three suggest a few scattered light rain showers in the area Saturday late-afternoon. All three have significant rain Saturday night.

Again, these are computer models. They will change. Since they are in general agreement, I give them a bit more credence than if they were all over the place. But we are still most of three days away with this. More times than not (not all but more times) computer models speed up systems when you get into the 24-36 hour window. So I'd tend to think we'll have a much better idea by Friday morning (and I will update then).

As mentioned earlier, it's still a greater than 80% chance it will rain on Saturday. It's really just determining the timing. Whether it's in there Saturday afternoon or mostly/completely holds until Saturday night. Granted, with the 3:30PM kickoff, even a later arrival could see the rain threat increasing late in the game.

One last note for now: I don't believe wind will be a significant factor.

You rock brother. I will check back tomorrow.

 

[KTexUNLfan]

Got our parkas and rainproof stadium blankets stuffed in my suitcase. Will be ready for anything. Hoping for a big Husker crowd and a win. Wish I could take our 70 degree weather with us though.

 

[Red Don]

Going to be unpleasant in the stands, especially after halftime with the sun down and the temperatures dropping.

Right, Doc! Just like the game @ Rutgers; no rain there but Damn Cold!

 

[CO4NU]

I say "LET'S GO"!

 

[HuskerWeatherman]

Friday Update:

It will be a close call whether or not the rain arrives before the game is over on Saturday. If this was an 11AM (Noon EST) kickoff, there probably wouldn't be any worries. But as it stands now, rain chances will be increasing beginning late-afternoon, becoming likely Saturday evening/night.

Saturday will start out pleasant. Likely to see sunshine Saturday morning. Somewhere around noon, clouds will thicken then becoming overcast by mid-afternoon. With the expected sun to start the day, the temperature should get to right around 50 for a high.

Pregame (late-morning/early-afternoon): 48 to 50 degrees -- could possibly get a degree or two warmer than that. Dry through at least early-afternoon.

Kickoff (3:30PM EST): Right around 50 degrees. Cloudy skies. South wind around 8 MPH. Slight chance of rain (20%).

Halftime: 49 degrees. Cloudy skies. South wind around 8 MPH. Rain chances increase to about 40%.

4th Quarter: 47 degrees. Cloudy skies. South wind around 7 MPH. Rain chances increase to about 70%.

Postgame: Temperatures in the 40s. Cloudy skies. Light SSE wind. Rain chances greater than 80%. Rain could be occasionally heavy.

Fortunately, I now have about 8 computer models I can look at, as the short-range models have entered the picture. The earliest arrival of the rain would be around 4PM. The latest arrival is around 7PM. So, there's a better chance than not the rain moves in before the game finishes -- though not a guarantee. This is still splitting hairs between 2-3 hours over 24 hours in advance. I'd suggest rain to start somewhere between 5 and 6PM -- but that could shift an hour or two either direction. So, I think you have to prepare for rain if you are going to the game. Maybe you'll get lucky, and it will hold off -- but I wouldn't want to count on that. At this point, rain doesn't appear heavy until 9-10PM. Also, there's one model of the roughly 8 that brings little to no rain into the DC-MD region -- but I would never count on a 1-in-8 chance.

 

[Huskerthom]

Friday Update:

It will be a close call whether or not the rain arrives before the game is over on Saturday. If this was an 11AM (Noon EST) kickoff, there probably wouldn't be any worries. But as it stands now, rain chances will be increasing beginning late-afternoon, becoming likely Saturday evening/night.

Saturday will start out pleasant. Likely to see sunshine Saturday morning. Somewhere around noon, clouds will thicken then becoming overcast by mid-afternoon. With the expected sun to start the day, the temperature should get to right around 50 for a high.

Pregame (late-morning/early-afternoon): 48 to 50 degrees -- could possibly get a degree or two warmer than that. Dry through at least early-afternoon.

Kickoff (3:30PM EST): Right around 50 degrees. Cloudy skies. South wind around 8 MPH. Slight chance of rain (20%).

Halftime: 49 degrees. Cloudy skies. South wind around 8 MPH. Rain chances increase to about 40%.

4th Quarter: 47 degrees. Cloudy skies. South wind around 7 MPH. Rain chances increase to about 70%.

Postgame: Temperatures in the 40s. Cloudy skies. Light SSE wind. Rain chances greater than 80%. Rain could be occasionally heavy.

Fortunately, I now have about 8 computer models I can look at, as the short-range models have entered the picture. The earliest arrival of the rain would be around 4PM. The latest arrival is around 7PM. So, there's a better chance than not the rain moves in before the game finishes -- though not a guarantee. This is still splitting hairs between 2-3 hours over 24 hours in advance. I'd suggest rain to start somewhere between 5 and 6PM -- but that could shift an hour or two either direction. So, I think you have to prepare for rain if you are going to the game. Maybe you'll get lucky, and it will hold off -- but I wouldn't want to count on that. At this point, rain doesn't appear heavy until 9-10PM. Also, there's one model of the roughly 8 that brings little to no rain into the DC-MD region -- but I would never count on a 1-in-8 chance.

Thanks HWM. I already bought ponchos for the whole fam. Just one minor clarification which you may or may not be able to answer. Do you think the rain will be heavy once it starts or start out mild and increase to heavy later in the evening?

 

[jmatlock]

Friday Update:

It will be a close call whether or not the rain arrives before the game is over on Saturday. If this was an 11AM (Noon EST) kickoff, there probably wouldn't be any worries. But as it stands now, rain chances will be increasing beginning late-afternoon, becoming likely Saturday evening/night.

Saturday will start out pleasant. Likely to see sunshine Saturday morning. Somewhere around noon, clouds will thicken then becoming overcast by mid-afternoon. With the expected sun to start the day, the temperature should get to right around 50 for a high.

Pregame (late-morning/early-afternoon): 48 to 50 degrees -- could possibly get a degree or two warmer than that. Dry through at least early-afternoon.

Kickoff (3:30PM EST): Right around 50 degrees. Cloudy skies. South wind around 8 MPH. Slight chance of rain (20%).

Halftime: 49 degrees. Cloudy skies. South wind around 8 MPH. Rain chances increase to about 40%.

4th Quarter: 47 degrees. Cloudy skies. South wind around 7 MPH. Rain chances increase to about 70%.

Postgame: Temperatures in the 40s. Cloudy skies. Light SSE wind. Rain chances greater than 80%. Rain could be occasionally heavy.

Fortunately, I now have about 8 computer models I can look at, as the short-range models have entered the picture. The earliest arrival of the rain would be around 4PM. The latest arrival is around 7PM. So, there's a better chance than not the rain moves in before the game finishes -- though not a guarantee. This is still splitting hairs between 2-3 hours over 24 hours in advance. I'd suggest rain to start somewhere between 5 and 6PM -- but that could shift an hour or two either direction. So, I think you have to prepare for rain if you are going to the game. Maybe you'll get lucky, and it will hold off -- but I wouldn't want to count on that. At this point, rain doesn't appear heavy until 9-10PM. Also, there's one model of the roughly 8 that brings little to no rain into the DC-MD region -- but I would never count on a 1-in-8 chance.

Well the huskers are 1-9 against the spread so does that mean they have no chance in covering this week as well pal?

 

[HuskerWeatherman]

Thanks HWM. I already bought ponchos for the whole fam. Just one minor clarification which you may or may not be able to answer. Do you think the rain will be heavy once it starts or start out mild and increase to heavy later in the evening?

It's mentioned toward the end of my forecast.

 

[HuskerWeatherman]

Saturday update:

Clouds have thickened up quicker than expected. 47-48 will be the high today. Wind will be mostly less than 10 MPH.

The rain ... it's over Southwestern VA at noon (EST) and slowly progressing northeastward.

I do not expect the rain to arrive before kickoff. Well, can't rule out a sprinkle by mid-afternoon, but nothing significant. I think that should hold through most or all of the first half as well. Either dry or a spotty light sprinkle.

Between 4 and 5PM is when rain chances will begin to ramp up. It's about a coin flip if the rain moves in prior to 5PM. Between 5 and 6PM (again, this is Eastern time -- subtract an hour for Central) rain chances increase to the point where it's greater than 50% by 6. And by 6-7PM, rain is very likely -- whether it's closer to 6 or closer to 7 is too tough to call at this point.

So, not much different than what I suggested yesterday. I don't think there will be any significant weather concerns for the first half. The second half -- especially the 4th quarter -- is when the rain could begin to become a factor. Again, this is splitting hairs down to about an hour time frame. Still at least a slight chance the impacting type of rain holds until just after the game.

Fortunately, I do not believe any rain that moves in late in the game (or shortly thereafter) will be heavy. The heavier stuff likely won't arrive until after 10PM tonight.

Anyhow, this is all a very close call.

 

[HuskerTea]

Saturday update:

Clouds have thickened up quicker than expected. 47-48 will be the high today. Wind will be mostly less than 10 MPH.

The rain ... it's over Southwestern VA at noon (EST) and slowly progressing northeastward.

I do not expect the rain to arrive before kickoff. Well, can't rule out a sprinkle by mid-afternoon, but nothing significant. I think that should hold through most or all of the first half as well. Either dry or a spotty light sprinkle.

Between 4 and 5PM is when rain chances will begin to ramp up. It's about a coin flip if the rain moves in prior to 5PM. Between 5 and 6PM (again, this is Eastern time -- subtract an hour for Central) rain chances increase to the point where it's greater than 50% by 6. And by 6-7PM, rain is very likely -- whether it's closer to 6 or closer to 7 is too tough to call at this point.

So, not much different than what I suggested yesterday. I don't think there will be any significant weather concerns for the first half. The second half -- especially the 4th quarter -- is when the rain could begin to become a factor. Again, this is splitting hairs down to about an hour time frame. Still at least a slight chance the impacting type of rain holds until just after the game.

Fortunately, I do not believe any rain that moves in late in the game (or shortly thereafter) will be heavy. The heavier stuff likely won't arrive until after 10PM tonight.

Anyhow, this is all a very close call.

You did it again HWM.Came through again just like all season.GBR.