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NCAA releases nine-step and three-phase plan for schools to resume sports


RedStones said:
Interesting thought. How do you see us regulating based on that? Example: if hospitalizations start climbing as the season progresses, what actions do you take to bring them back down? I'm thinking mainly from a sporting event standpoint. Varying the season based on hospitalizations kind of skews the seasons results.

Honest question because I have no idea how to make it work. It kind of seems like whatever gets played will be great but the results shouldn't be counted.
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Maybe more to your point, the NCAA talking like this is as simple as watching test positive rates for a downward trend begs the question what happens when rates go back up, which they seemingly are very likely to do unless and until there is herd immunity/vaccine. What if Nebraska can play but an uptick in Chicago sidelines Northwestern the week we play them, etc, etc, etc. I think your post recognizes that problem. It's a real one.

But then that's not unique to the NCAA; it's the same problem we have in society at large. States were supposed to have 2 weeks downward trend before opening, but few if any did or were even close, but some just said screw it, we're opening anyway. That's a fairly understandable response, but it points to the reality that we as a society don't really know how we're really going to deal with this. We're simply muddling through. I don't think anyone can expect the sliver of life that is college football to somehow have a reasonable and workable plan when clearly no one else does.
 
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Middle-aged_Ball_Coach said:
I agree with your translation, and I think that it was smart of him to get that message out there early as it will impact the conversations that other conferences and presidents will be having, probably including the B1G. If Kevin Warren were to say something similar, it would be a green light to everyone else to move ahead with plans to play. I don't know that Warren has that kind of juice yet. The B1G is dominated by its member schools' presidents more than any other conference besides the Pac, and I don't know that Warren (being new) would have that kind of trust and authority to move ahead without their approval and support. I'd be surprised if there isn't at least a handful of university presidents in the B1G and probably the Pac that are hesitant, thinking like lawyers about the potential liability.

There would be strength in numbers. I'm concerned that a strong statement by the Pac pushing for caution would influence the B1G in that direction. If you look at the Power-5, the conference that I'd pick as most likely to NOT play would be the Pac, and the B1G sees itself much more in line with the Pac than the SEC because it's academics first. If the B1G echoes the SEC now, everyone will be on board. I could also see the SEC, ACC, and the Big 12 saying that they'll play, but the Pac and the B1G hedging.
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The B1G also has NYC, Chicago and Detroit. The SEC has New Orleans and Atlanta, but still. I expect the B1G to be more conservative, regardless of Warren's status.

I also agree with you on the SEC's Commish getting out there. I think it was quite deliberate to preempt and influence. I don't have a problem with it. He's representing his constituents.
 
BigRedOhio said:
I hate the modern world where everything is political. Just play football for God sake.
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It would be nice if we could have some things like college football be like they were if only because not everything would be so depressing. But even if we have some football I cant imagine it feeling "right".

I don't think there's any way this isnt going to be political though, even if there wasn't a political divide. There's decisions that have to be made with big consequences because this virus touches everything. This is a royal pain in the ass.
 
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huskernut said:
Maybe more to your point, the NCAA talking like this is as simple as watching test positive rates for a downward trend begs the question what happens when rates go back up, which they seemingly are very likely to do unless and until there is herd immunity/vaccine. What if Nebraska can play but an uptick in Chicago sidelines Northwestern the week we play them, etc, etc, etc. I think your post recognizes that problem. It's a real one.

But then that's not unique to the NCAA; it's the same problem we have in society at large. States were supposed to have 2 weeks downward trend before opening, but few if any did or were even close, but some just said screw it, we're opening anyway. That's a fairly understandable response, but it points to the reality that we as a society don't really know how we're really going to deal with this. We're simply muddling through. I don't think anyone can expect the sliver of life that is college football to somehow have a reasonable and workable plan when clearly no one else does.
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That's a little more along the lines of what I was thinking. For business if the hospitalizations go up you could probably say "ok let's scale back and try to bring the number down". You could technically do the same with sporting events but doing so changes the dynamics of how people think about successful seasons. Let's say you're half way through the season and hospitalization rates go up and games have to be cancelled. That makes the seasons results irrelevant. Those games that get cancelled might be easy wins or they might be major upsets.

Being selfish, I'd like to see football this year even if the results don't count. Consider it a season long scrimage in preparation for next year.
 
lincoln84 said:
Wow, only 9 steps? That’s like a Rubik’s cube...I don’t like it. I wonder if this is merely a formality so they can establish/document steps that are out of their control = bailout money when they cancel the season.
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I think this us just a stopgap with maybe a few markers thrown out there because they felt they had to have something out there. Clearly the big decisions havent been made yet though.
 
RedStones said:
That's a little more along the lines of what I was thinking. For business if the hospitalizations go up you could probably say "ok let's scale back and try to bring the number down". You could technically do the same with sporting events but doing so changes the dynamics of how people think about successful seasons. Let's say you're half way through the season and hospitalization rates go up and games have to be cancelled. That makes the seasons results irrelevant. Those games that get cancelled might be easy wins or they might be major upsets.

Being selfish, I'd like to see football this year even if the results don't count. Consider it a season long scrimage in preparation for next year.
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I agree. There should be something. I can imagine having to accept it being scaled way back though. It may be more like tofu than ribeye.
 
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Middle-aged_Ball_Coach said:
I agree with your translation, and I think that it was smart of him to get that message out there early as it will impact the conversations that other conferences and presidents will be having, probably including the B1G. If Kevin Warren were to say something similar, it would be a green light to everyone else to move ahead with plans to play. I don't know that Warren has that kind of juice yet. The B1G is dominated by its member schools' presidents more than any other conference besides the Pac, and I don't know that Warren (being new) would have that kind of trust and authority to move ahead without their approval and support. I'd be surprised if there isn't at least a handful of university presidents in the B1G and probably the Pac that are hesitant, thinking like lawyers about the potential liability.

There would be strength in numbers. I'm concerned that a strong statement by the Pac pushing for caution would influence the B1G in that direction. If you look at the Power-5, the conference that I'd pick as most likely to NOT play would be the Pac, and the B1G sees itself much more in line with the Pac than the SEC because it's academics first. If the B1G echoes the SEC now, everyone will be on board. I could also see the SEC, ACC, and the Big 12 saying that they'll play, but the Pac and the B1G hedging.
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Truth. Every word.
 




NCAA releases nine-step and three-phase plan
So, is this the Cotton Eyed Joe plan?
 
Goal-line said:
Don’t think most states will allow FB to happen. Too big of a risk.
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I'm not so certain. I think that things will likely shake out similar to how they did with lockdowns in general. Some states will batten down the hatches, and others will try to live and let live. It's hard to imagine every state shutting it down, and if any state has the green light, there will be a lot of pressure on the other states to follow suit. What they do about fans is secondary to just having competitions.

Interesting times.
 
huskernut said:
I wish everything keyed off hospitalizations.
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I wish it was more off hospitalizations too. There is a false narrative out there (if you can believe that) that positive cases is a bad thing. I feel differently in that the only cure is your own immune system. Even a vaccine has one purpose. To inject a less deadly strain of the same type of virus into your system to let it create the anti-bodies. The more people that test positive the quicker we are moving through the strain. Social distancing was never about hiding from the virus...….it was about delaying the number of cases to ensure the hospitals weren't over run in the beginning.

Until people and the media start understanding that a large number of positive cases is a good thing we will be delaying the ability to put large numbers of people in any venue. Re-opening the economy while still trying to protect the most at risk people to delay hospitalizations should still be the goal. I personally don't know whether I have been exposed or not as most people are asymptomatic. While I do have some fear of getting it, I know it has to happen to make me a healthier person against this virus.
 



Hville said:
I wish it was more off hospitalizations too. There is a false narrative out there (if you can believe that) that positive cases is a bad thing. I feel differently in that the only cure is your own immune system. Even a vaccine has one purpose. To inject a less deadly strain of the same type of virus into your system to let it create the anti-bodies. The more people that test positive the quicker we are moving through the strain. Social distancing was never about hiding from the virus...….it was about delaying the number of cases to ensure the hospitals weren't over run in the beginning.

Until people and the media start understanding that a large number of positive cases is a good thing we will be delaying the ability to put large numbers of people in any venue. Re-opening the economy while still trying to protect the most at risk people to delay hospitalizations should still be the goal. I personally don't know whether I have been exposed or not as most people are asymptomatic. While I do have some fear of getting it, I know it has to happen to make me a healthier person against this virus.
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Agreed. It's crazy that it's not better understood, but more asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic people (i.e., those we aren't usually testing up to now) means that the virus is less dangerous.

I think we'll have football, for a lot of reasons including:

- it's important to people emotionally (and I argue good for mental health)
- there's a few billion dollars tied up in it
- for the players it's not really dangerous at all (Italy had a total of about 10 people who died under the age of 30)
- as more and more people get tested and have antibody testing, we'll have a better and more realistic view of the dangers
 

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