A pretty tough week for MU and for the picks last week. I was 3-6 vs. the spread (18-17 on the year) and 8-2 straight up (33-7 on the year). While La Monroe got the backdoor cover for us (and they should have, those teams played essentially an even game) we got very unlucky in the Colorado State (backdoor cover) and Northern Illinois games (If ku doesn't use their last timeout to set up a 4th and long play from their own 8 yard line, NIU will have to score and cover) so it made for a tough week.
Speaking of tough weeks what a disaster of a trip to Columbia, SC for Mizzou. South Carolina had an excellent offensive game plan and their D line was the dominant factor in the game. Much has been made of who should be playing quarterback for Mizzou.
Personally, I understand the desire to not show the players what could appear to be panic by benching the starting quarterback. Also I was very pleased that we beat Arizona State with Berkstresser at the helm but it is my opinion that the offense was very unremarkable in that game. MU was put in some horrible offensive situations last week and the special teams were also awful. There were so many errors with fumbles and missed blocks by other members of the offense it's tough for me to take that disaster of a game as an indicator of what Franklin will or won't do in the future.
For those who claim Coach Pinkel won't ever make a change at QB I do remember the day Kirk Farmer (a very underrated QB when healthy) was benched for a redshirt freshman. I thought Coach Pinkel had panicked for no reason. Once I saw Brad Smith play I realized I was wrong.
Enough about MU and the problems the Tigers face, on to this week's games!
MIZZOU (+3) at Central Florida - No that's not a typo, that's a plus three for Ol' Mizzou. Clearly this is another "must win" game for the Tigers if you have the types of goals for this team that most MU fans have. Central Florida is no joke, playing Ohio State very tough in Columbus and sitting at 2-1. What gives me hope is that UCF when forced to throw against the Buckeyes had three interceptions and Ohio State was able to get the running game going pretty well. I THINK MU's inability to run the ball has come from the elite defenses we have been playing. Also no one wants to give MU any credit for beating ASU who shocked me by destroying another BCS opponent last week.
I also want to see our star recievers thrown a few more deep balls. I am hopeful that MU can establish the run and open that up and we will all be happy. A loss here and the season could get very rough.
The schedule this year is the product of switching conferences at the last minute. Not an easy non conference slate for MU and UCF, Vandy AND Alabama all get bye weeks to prepare for the Tigers which is tough.
Pick MIZZOU 30-21, I understand this is a quality opponent (Phil Steele loves them) but I think their mostly grind it out approach will have a tough time against an underrated MU defense.
Texas Tech (-2.5) at Iowa State - This is not a game I would like to bet. I don't recall the last time Texas Tech played a non conference opponent with a pulse. It's really kind of pathetic and it makes it almost impossible to know what the Red Raiders really have in terms of talent or ability to take this show on the road to Ames where the Cyclones should be confident. Seth Doege really is an impressive talent but ISU has been very solid against the pass and I prefer to bet on the tested teams, particularly as home dogs.
Pick ISU 30-24
Texas (-3) at Oklahoma State - I have been a bit down on OSU (I bet the under on the year on them) because they are starting a true freshman QB. Well now Wes Lunt appears to be out for this game so I guess it's time for plan B. Texas looked good against Ole Miss but it's amazing how the media just WANTS to fawn all over Texas. I recall when MU beat some Ole Miss teams that were better than the current product (once in that great 2007 season) and no one paid any attention. You'd think Texas beat Eil and Archie Manning by watching ESPN after that game.
The thing is Texas should have a strong defense. When two teams are playing who both put up ridiculous yardage the week before something has to give. Even with Walsh looking good against ULL I feel like I don't want to take an inexperienced QB against this defense.
Pick Texas 35-28
Arkansas (+13.5) at Texas A&M - The Aggies have put up gaudy offensive numbers against bad teams. The Hogs could quit if things get rough but my guess is Rutgers is a little better than people think and the Hogs will actually be in this one until the end. They have some outstanding offensive playmakers.
Pick Arkansas who loses 37-35 in another tough loss.
Tennessee (+14) at Georgia - Okay, I am picking more SEC games when I feel I can do so. I just look at Georgia and they look like another incredibly talented team particularly on defense. Tennessee gave up way too many points to Akron (among others) for me not to take the points here.
PICK Georgia 41-14
Wisconsin (+13.5) at Nebraska - A four point ballgame DEEP into the fourth quarter vs. UTEP is a cause for concern. Questionable status of Montee Ball is a cause for concern. Wisconsin just hasn't looked very good this year and Nebraska would LOVE to get some revenge and blow these guys out. Here is the thing. I THINK that Wisconsin has played a tougher schedule than it appears at first glance. While I still think Nebraska is the better team and this one could get ugly I think the Badgers will have enough success running the ball to keep this one close late into the ball game.
Pick Wisconsin who loses 28-23
Other games - Let's take CLEMSON (-9.5) on the road against a poor BC team.
I have a friend who keeps trying to convince me that TCU (-17) is a national championship contender and they have left some points on the field. I suspect he will really let me hear it this week when they blow out an SMU team that appears to be just awful.
TCU is the pick.
I've told folks I am not convinced about Arizona State despite a great win last week (Utah was missing their QB). I'll try one more time to play CAL (-2) who has had a tough schedule but should be good enough to win this one by ten or so. I really liked Utah so look out but I really like this game.
Let's take TROY (-9.5) to go on the road and win at South Alabama. The last thing Troy wants to do is lose to an instate team they think should not be at their level. This is actually another game I LOVE that's under the radar.
This could be a mistake but I will pick an 11th game. UAB is getting all kinds of love for playing Ohio State close and that TULSA line is down to 13.5. I like betting against teams that aren't as good as folks think and I like TU to win by about 21.
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non Golden Knight) team!
Speaking of tough weeks what a disaster of a trip to Columbia, SC for Mizzou. South Carolina had an excellent offensive game plan and their D line was the dominant factor in the game. Much has been made of who should be playing quarterback for Mizzou.
Personally, I understand the desire to not show the players what could appear to be panic by benching the starting quarterback. Also I was very pleased that we beat Arizona State with Berkstresser at the helm but it is my opinion that the offense was very unremarkable in that game. MU was put in some horrible offensive situations last week and the special teams were also awful. There were so many errors with fumbles and missed blocks by other members of the offense it's tough for me to take that disaster of a game as an indicator of what Franklin will or won't do in the future.
For those who claim Coach Pinkel won't ever make a change at QB I do remember the day Kirk Farmer (a very underrated QB when healthy) was benched for a redshirt freshman. I thought Coach Pinkel had panicked for no reason. Once I saw Brad Smith play I realized I was wrong.
Enough about MU and the problems the Tigers face, on to this week's games!
MIZZOU (+3) at Central Florida - No that's not a typo, that's a plus three for Ol' Mizzou. Clearly this is another "must win" game for the Tigers if you have the types of goals for this team that most MU fans have. Central Florida is no joke, playing Ohio State very tough in Columbus and sitting at 2-1. What gives me hope is that UCF when forced to throw against the Buckeyes had three interceptions and Ohio State was able to get the running game going pretty well. I THINK MU's inability to run the ball has come from the elite defenses we have been playing. Also no one wants to give MU any credit for beating ASU who shocked me by destroying another BCS opponent last week.
I also want to see our star recievers thrown a few more deep balls. I am hopeful that MU can establish the run and open that up and we will all be happy. A loss here and the season could get very rough.
The schedule this year is the product of switching conferences at the last minute. Not an easy non conference slate for MU and UCF, Vandy AND Alabama all get bye weeks to prepare for the Tigers which is tough.
Pick MIZZOU 30-21, I understand this is a quality opponent (Phil Steele loves them) but I think their mostly grind it out approach will have a tough time against an underrated MU defense.
Texas Tech (-2.5) at Iowa State - This is not a game I would like to bet. I don't recall the last time Texas Tech played a non conference opponent with a pulse. It's really kind of pathetic and it makes it almost impossible to know what the Red Raiders really have in terms of talent or ability to take this show on the road to Ames where the Cyclones should be confident. Seth Doege really is an impressive talent but ISU has been very solid against the pass and I prefer to bet on the tested teams, particularly as home dogs.
Pick ISU 30-24
Texas (-3) at Oklahoma State - I have been a bit down on OSU (I bet the under on the year on them) because they are starting a true freshman QB. Well now Wes Lunt appears to be out for this game so I guess it's time for plan B. Texas looked good against Ole Miss but it's amazing how the media just WANTS to fawn all over Texas. I recall when MU beat some Ole Miss teams that were better than the current product (once in that great 2007 season) and no one paid any attention. You'd think Texas beat Eil and Archie Manning by watching ESPN after that game.
The thing is Texas should have a strong defense. When two teams are playing who both put up ridiculous yardage the week before something has to give. Even with Walsh looking good against ULL I feel like I don't want to take an inexperienced QB against this defense.
Pick Texas 35-28
Arkansas (+13.5) at Texas A&M - The Aggies have put up gaudy offensive numbers against bad teams. The Hogs could quit if things get rough but my guess is Rutgers is a little better than people think and the Hogs will actually be in this one until the end. They have some outstanding offensive playmakers.
Pick Arkansas who loses 37-35 in another tough loss.
Tennessee (+14) at Georgia - Okay, I am picking more SEC games when I feel I can do so. I just look at Georgia and they look like another incredibly talented team particularly on defense. Tennessee gave up way too many points to Akron (among others) for me not to take the points here.
PICK Georgia 41-14
Wisconsin (+13.5) at Nebraska - A four point ballgame DEEP into the fourth quarter vs. UTEP is a cause for concern. Questionable status of Montee Ball is a cause for concern. Wisconsin just hasn't looked very good this year and Nebraska would LOVE to get some revenge and blow these guys out. Here is the thing. I THINK that Wisconsin has played a tougher schedule than it appears at first glance. While I still think Nebraska is the better team and this one could get ugly I think the Badgers will have enough success running the ball to keep this one close late into the ball game.
Pick Wisconsin who loses 28-23
Other games - Let's take CLEMSON (-9.5) on the road against a poor BC team.
I have a friend who keeps trying to convince me that TCU (-17) is a national championship contender and they have left some points on the field. I suspect he will really let me hear it this week when they blow out an SMU team that appears to be just awful.
TCU is the pick.
I've told folks I am not convinced about Arizona State despite a great win last week (Utah was missing their QB). I'll try one more time to play CAL (-2) who has had a tough schedule but should be good enough to win this one by ten or so. I really liked Utah so look out but I really like this game.
Let's take TROY (-9.5) to go on the road and win at South Alabama. The last thing Troy wants to do is lose to an instate team they think should not be at their level. This is actually another game I LOVE that's under the radar.
This could be a mistake but I will pick an 11th game. UAB is getting all kinds of love for playing Ohio State close and that TULSA line is down to 13.5. I like betting against teams that aren't as good as folks think and I like TU to win by about 21.
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non Golden Knight) team!
