After completing the comparison of MR's actual results to expected results (based on perceived talent on hand) at OSU from 2003-2014, showing he over-performed by 18.2%, I thought it would be interesting to see how NU did during that same span (yes, I'm officially a geek for thinking it would be interesting). I found that Nebraska, with three different head coaches (which would account for some of the issues), consistently under-performed (I know, that shouldn't come as much of a shock, but some of the numbers are interesting).
Overall, during that 12-year span, Nebraska under-performed by -8.4%. NU played 156 games from 2003-2014, holding the five-year recruiting advantage in 110 games, a push in 12 games, and a recruiting disadvantage in 34 games, for an expected win percentage of 74.4%. NU only managed to win 103 of those games, however, for an actual win percentage of 66.0%.
One of the surprising things was that NU was consistent in under-performing during that period. We only over-performed in two of the 12 seasons, and met expectations in another two. That means NU under-performed in eight seasons.
Here's a breakdown by head coach:
2003
Frank Solich
Expected 61.5%
Actual 76.9%
Spread 15.4%
Note: This was a good season, according to expectations, but I can't draw any conclusions about Solich as a coach with this data because it's the only year for which data is available.
2004-2007
Bill Callahan
Expected 73.5%
Actual 55.1%
Spread -18.4%
Note: BC could recruit, but the on-field results were definitely lacking. He under-performed in three seasons, and met expectations in one. Not good.
2008-2014
Bo Pelini
Expected 76.6%
Actual 70.2%
Spread -6.4%
Note: BP had some talent, especially in the beginning, but just couldn't quite get the results. He under-performed in five seasons, met expectations in one, and over-performed in one.
Another interesting stat I discovered is that Nebraska has had a hard time with head coaching transitions, and it isn't until year three that things settle down. This isn't surprising, but I was interested to see how the numbers clearly showed issues with our coaching transitions. Below is a breakdown for each HC transition:
BC
Year 1: -31.8% spread
Year 2: -12.5% spread
Year 3: 0% spread
BP
Year 1: -19.2% spread
Year 2: -10.7% spread
Year 3: -7.1% spread
MR
Year 1: -34.6% spread
Year 2: -7.7% spread
Year 3: ? spread
BP clearly had the best year-one transition results, but I think we can all agree that he also had the easiest transition as a majority of media, fans, and most importantly, players were ready, willing, and anxious to move on. That wasn't the case for the transitions involving BC and MR.