"Know where you can miss"/"I want guys that love football"

[MartyHuskerFan]

Just posting this to back up your sentence above, you're not naive you are correct. If you look at the top 15 team recruiting, they have more 5 and 4 star recruits than 3 stars. Those lower in the ranking have many more 3 stars than 4 or 5 star recruits. We need to get to that level of top 15 recruiting to win the B1G:
https://247sports.com/Season/2018-Football/CompositeTeamRankings/ I think Frost will get us there eventually.

View attachment 17741

I am just glancing at this and my first thought is that here is another guy using a recruiting ranking to say a bunch of things that dont make any sense. All this chart shows is that teams who get a bunch of 4-5 star kids show up at the top of the recruiting rankings. Frankly, I am not interested in worshiping those teams. btw Michigan is not in that list.

I dont disagree, those teams are great and I think we need to get a few 4-5 star guys each year to be more competitive against the elite teams. However, we cant and we dont need to beat out those top 5-7 teams in recruiting to be a very good football team, or to be at Michigan's level. More importantly, Nebraska will never be in that 5-7 range on a regular basis. They will be in that next group 8-20, regularly, with the occasional 5 star talent coming through.

 

[ramsker]

I really don't know. In Young's case, he actually knows what he's doing, he just doesn't execute. Farmer I think is the victim of just of being good if he can get himself in the right spot but it doesn't happen all that often.

They will try something different on the line. Honas will eventually end up starting, could be as early as Saturday.

Man . . . I sure HOPE they try something different on the line. The G/C/G combo is just terrible far too often and will all be gone next year. If they can't get it together ASAP, I'd rather see some younger, hungrier guys get their chance and see if they can learn and improve either for this year or next.

Young's had the same issues across all the different coaches and schemes. He's just too hot & cold . . . and his cold moments lead to long gains or home runs far too often. Would rather see Honas get more time and see if he can build on the reps. Seems like he gets better and better.

 

[JKinney]

There were, like, 2 people rating college kids back then. Minimal video. No internet. Someone went back and rescouted most of TOs players from every year until recruiting services picked up. Watched whatever film they could and assigned their ranking. Can't remember if one of the guys here did it or not. But basically TO recruited much better than was given credit for. Most of his classes after 1988 or something would have been considered top 10. Several were retrospective #1 classes.

Wish I had saved that. It must have took a ridiculously long time to do.

This will surely be a never-ending debate amongst Husker fans. I respectfully disagree with your take, even though all of your arguments are valid. I tend to land on the side of "TO won National Championships without being constantly in the top 15".

First, because this seems to be what TO felt himself (https://journalstar.com/sports/colu...cle_5e46d29f-37e4-5ccc-b9b5-ee96d440babc.html).

Second, because anytime you look at recruiting in retrospect significant bias appears, the facts are that most recruiting agencies did not rate the Huskers in the top 15 every year, at the time (granted that those recruiting agencies were not as "sophisticated" as they are now). http://sportstreatise.com/2018/01/1995-nebraska-and-the-myth-of-championship-recruiting/

Third, because college recruiting class metrics are flawed metrics CURRENTLY (https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2...-rankings-are-flawed-metrics-talent-blue-chip). It has been shown that recruiting classes are usually only "significant" if you get maybe 2 or 3 of the ten best players in the country on a consistent basis, which I don't think Nebraska will ever be able to achieve.

In my opinion, TO picked a scheme (option football), that would allow him to have success without a consistent top 15 recruiting class. Teams had to prepare differently for the Huskers because it would probably be the only time they would see this scheme all season. It also allowed him to specialize in talent that other teams might overlook, such as offensive linemen who didn't have to have the size and technique to pass block, or QBs who could run the option effectively for example, or WRs whose main job was to block, instead of being tall with great hands.

Just my opinion....it's fun to debate these things.

 

[ShortSideOption]

This will surely be a never-ending debate amongst Husker fans. I respectfully disagree with your take, even though all of your arguments are valid. I tend to land on the side of "TO won National Championships without being constantly in the top 15".

First, because this seems to be what TO felt himself (https://journalstar.com/sports/colu...cle_5e46d29f-37e4-5ccc-b9b5-ee96d440babc.html).

Second, because anytime you look at recruiting in retrospect significant bias appears, the facts are that most recruiting agencies did not rate the Huskers in the top 15 every year, at the time (granted that those recruiting agencies were not as "sophisticated" as they are now). http://sportstreatise.com/2018/01/1995-nebraska-and-the-myth-of-championship-recruiting/

Third, because college recruiting class metrics are flawed metrics CURRENTLY (https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2...-rankings-are-flawed-metrics-talent-blue-chip). It has been shown that recruiting classes are usually only "significant" if you get maybe 2 or 3 of the ten best players in the country on a consistent basis, which I don't think Nebraska will ever be able to achieve.

In my opinion, TO picked a scheme (option football), that would allow him to have success without a consistent top 15 recruiting class. Teams had to prepare differently for the Huskers because it would probably be the only time they would see this scheme all season. It also allowed him to specialize in talent that other teams might overlook, such as offensive linemen who didn't have to have the size and technique to pass block, or QBs who could run the option effectively for example, or WRs whose main job was to block, instead of being tall with great hands.

Just my opinion....it's fun to debate these things.

Scheme helped a ton, everyone in Nebraska running it helped as well. We were also the one of the only programs lifting, which trickled down to our high schools. Husker Power was great because it was one of the only lifting programs. It needs to be tweaked a bit.

In 1997 we had 9/11 starters on a national championship team from Nebraska:
QB: Frost
FB: Makovicka
RB: Green
G: Zatechka
T: Pollack
T: Anderson
WR: Brown
TE: Carpenter
TE: Jackson

OG: Taylor (Texas)
C: Heskew (Oklahoma)

We will never be able to start 8 guys on one side of the ball from Nebraska again and win national titles. The reason we could was because every school in Nebraska was running what the college was, so we could develop QBs and players. But secondly, because every school in Nebraska was lifting when a lot of people weren't. There weren't recruiting rankings back then, but a lot of those guys in the starting wouldn't be more than a 5.6 three star on rivals. However, they were lifting when no one else was, so they got that much better.

 

[JKinney]

Scheme helped a ton, everyone in Nebraska running it helped as well. We were also the one of the only programs lifting, which trickled down to our high schools. Husker Power was great because it was one of the only lifting programs. It needs to be tweaked a bit.

In 1997 we had 9/11 starters on a national championship team from Nebraska:
QB: Frost
FB: Makovicka
RB: Green
G: Zatechka
T: Pollack
T: Anderson
WR: Brown
TE: Carpenter
TE: Jackson

OG: Taylor (Texas)
C: Heskew (Oklahoma)

We will never be able to start 8 guys on one side of the ball from Nebraska again and win national titles. The reason we could was because every school in Nebraska was running what the college was, so we could develop QBs and players. But secondly, because every school in Nebraska was lifting when a lot of people weren't. There weren't recruiting rankings back then, but a lot of those guys in the starting wouldn't be more than a 5.6 three star on rivals. However, they were lifting when no one else was, so they got that much better.

I agree with everything from your post. Thanks for the response.

Honest Question: Do you think if Nebraska went back to a power running scheme (even if not the option necessarily) we might have somewhat equivalent success, or do you think that what the highschools are running scheme wise these days has changed significantly since 1995?

 

[TnHusker87]

Scheme helped a ton, everyone in Nebraska running it helped as well. We were also the one of the only programs lifting, which trickled down to our high schools. Husker Power was great because it was one of the only lifting programs. It needs to be tweaked a bit.

In 1997 we had 9/11 starters on a national championship team from Nebraska:
QB: Frost
FB: Makovicka
RB: Green
G: Zatechka
T: Pollack
T: Anderson
WR: Brown
TE: Carpenter
TE: Jackson

OG: Taylor (Texas)
C: Heskew (Oklahoma)

We will never be able to start 8 guys on one side of the ball from Nebraska again and win national titles. The reason we could was because every school in Nebraska was running what the college was, so we could develop QBs and players. But secondly, because every school in Nebraska was lifting when a lot of people weren't. There weren't recruiting rankings back then, but a lot of those guys in the starting wouldn't be more than a 5.6 three star on rivals. However, they were lifting when no one else was, so they got that much better.

A companion question to the one posed by @JKinney is how long would it take for NE HS football coaches to implement offensive systems similar to what HCSF is running and have talent that is already 'pre-schooled' in the concepts enough to make comparable contributions as walk-ons or on scholarship?? Is it a 5 to 10 year process??

I say this because I remember running defensive schemes like NU back in the late 70s & early 80s with the 5-2 ... offensive maybe not much as we were ran out of the Veer.

GBR!

 

[Bean]

I am just glancing at this and my first thought is that here is another guy using a recruiting ranking to say a bunch of things that dont make any sense. All this chart shows is that teams who get a bunch of 4-5 star kids show up at the top of the recruiting rankings. Frankly, I am not interested in worshiping those teams. btw Michigan is not in that list.

I dont disagree, those teams are great and I think we need to get a few 4-5 star guys each year to be more competitive against the elite teams. However, we cant and we dont need to beat out those top 5-7 teams in recruiting to be a very good football team, or to be at Michigan's level. More importantly, Nebraska will never be in that 5-7 range on a regular basis. They will be in that next group 8-20, regularly, with the occasional 5 star talent coming through.

I hope you're wrong [bolded] because even with a great walkon program and getting our key instate players to stay at home with NU, we will need several key 4 and 5 star Blue Chip recruits to help us compete in the B1G and National tittle.

These studies show how important 4 and 5 star athletes are now days: [Look how many are in the B1G];
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/8/22/17606048/blue-chip-ratio-2018

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2...-matters-why-the-sites-get-the-rankings-right

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...llege-football-recruiting-teams-championships

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ootball-playoff-recruit-national-champion-cfb

With HC SF we will be able to eventually compete in the B1G but it's not going to be easy.

 

[GIFRRO]

Scheme helped a ton, everyone in Nebraska running it helped as well. We were also the one of the only programs lifting, which trickled down to our high schools. Husker Power was great because it was one of the only lifting programs. It needs to be tweaked a bit.

In 1997 we had 9/11 starters on a national championship team from Nebraska:
QB: Frost
FB: Makovicka
RB: Green
G: Zatechka
T: Pollack
T: Anderson
WR: Brown
TE: Carpenter
TE: Jackson

OG: Taylor (Texas)
C: Heskew (Oklahoma)

We will never be able to start 8 guys on one side of the ball from Nebraska again and win national titles. The reason we could was because every school in Nebraska was running what the college was, so we could develop QBs and players. But secondly, because every school in Nebraska was lifting when a lot of people weren't. There weren't recruiting rankings back then, but a lot of those guys in the starting wouldn't be more than a 5.6 three star on rivals. However, they were lifting when no one else was, so they got that much better.

I've been reminding people for years how amazing that offense had so many nebraskans on it. Of course, if you were to name the 3rd WR in that group, it would be another Nebraskan name matt davison.

But notice 2 things

1 - Most of the NFL talent was on D. that year was the most talented D we've ever had IMO. The D was phenomonal while the offense was average/Good. Wasnt a real great or dominating O, although it looked good against TU!


2 - We were lucky to have an abundant of talent from NU for a few years. Ahman Green and Frost were legit national recruits who any school in America would have took. Mackovicas were uniquley perfect for the FB position.

 

[ShortSideOption]

I agree with everything from your post. Thanks for the response.

Honest Question: Do you think if Nebraska went back to a power running scheme (even if not the option necessarily) we might have somewhat equivalent success, or do you think that what the highschools are running scheme wise these days has changed significantly since 1995?

A companion question to the one posed by @JKinney is how long would it take for NE HS football coaches to implement offensive systems similar to what HCSF is running and have talent that is already 'pre-schooled' in the concepts enough to make comparable contributions as walk-ons or on scholarship?? Is it a 5 to 10 year process??

I say this because I remember running defensive schemes like NU back in the late 70s & early 80s with the 5-2 ... offensive maybe not much as we were ran out of the Veer.

GBR!

Good questions...

I think what Nebraska did in the 90s is what Navy and the service academies are doing now. Navy is finishing around 8 or 9 wins pretty consistently. The difference is, we were recruiting football players while Navy, Army, and Air Force were recruiting kids that had to go into service after, so we were able to run those offenses with 300 pound linemen. And not to beat a dead horse, but we were lifting while others weren't. The analogy given to me was basically we were in school like all other FBS teams, but we were the only ones allowed to study. Of course we were getting better grades.

I think the offenses have changed so much because the rules are changing. You are almost foolish not to run RPOs anymore with the way the rules are, it basically allows you to cheat and defenses are screwed. Even Nick Saban who gets whatever recruit he wants has changed what he is doing. Further, I think a lot of schools are doing what Frost does. Bellevue West, Lincoln HIgh, etc. But there are still some like Omaha North that just line up in iForm. And let's be honest, even if we do start running what Frost is, our athletes are never going to be what they are elsewhere. They were in the 90s because we had the edge of lifting while other people didn't. Heck, we have a kid that is visiting from Georgia that is a 5.7 three star, and is the 51st best player in his state. Nebraska has two kids that are rated that high or better. We were celebrating HIckman and he is a 5.6 3 star.

 

[ShortSideOption]

I've been reminding people for years how amazing that offense had so many nebraskans on it. Of course, if you were to name the 3rd WR in that group, it would be another Nebraskan name matt davison.

But notice 2 things

1 - Most of the NFL talent was on D. that year was the most talented D we've ever had IMO. The D was phenomonal while the offense was average/Good. Wasnt a real great or dominating O, although it looked good against TU!


2 - We were lucky to have an abundant of talent from NU for a few years. Ahman Green and Frost were legit national recruits who any school in America would have took. Mackovicas were uniquley perfect for the FB position.

Agree... our defense had a lot of guys from out of state on it. Kind of goes back to we needed speed so we had to recruit nationally. In regard to your second point, I was looking at that, Frost and Green for sure were recruited by everyone. But besides that, MAYBE one linemen would be considered a national recruit from the state. That isn't happening anymore due to everyone lifting now and not just us.

 

[MartyHuskerFan]

I hope you're wrong [bolded] because even with a great walkon program and getting our key instate players to stay at home with NU, we will need several key 4 and 5 star Blue Chip recruits to help us compete in the B1G and National tittle.

These studies show how important 4 and 5 star athletes are now days: [Look how many are in the B1G];
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/8/22/17606048/blue-chip-ratio-2018

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2...-matters-why-the-sites-get-the-rankings-right

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...llege-football-recruiting-teams-championships

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ootball-playoff-recruit-national-champion-cfb

With HC SF we will be able to eventually compete in the B1G but it's not going to be easy.

There are many ingredients to a great college football team. I cant argue with your logic that the more high star players you have the better your chances are. That is definitely true. But you can average around 15 in the rankings every year, that might give you 4-5 blue chip guys per year, which equates to about how many starters you need. If your coaches are the best at developing the players and they always match to the scheme you are running, you can have a very competitive team. Now mix in the in-state and walk-on type talent that will keep your team motivated and you have the Nebraska way. If you know how to match to your scheme and you keep all the local talent then you can get by with fewer blue chippers. Also consider, the players you are getting that match your scheme and become superstars may not be getting national recognition, they may only be 3 star guys. They dont even show up in the coveted recruiting ratings.

Just because the cross matched data shows a correlation between good recruiting and good actual finishes does not mean a team cannot be successful a different way, it just means its uncommon and has not happened lately. If you cant see that, then put on your underwater mask, because , just like that lonely fish in the water, you are about to get schooled.

GBR

 

[Bean]

Just because the cross matched data shows a correlation between good recruiting and good actual finishes does not mean a team cannot be successful a different way, it just means its uncommon and has not happened lately. If you cant see that, then put on your underwater mask, because , just like that lonely fish in the water, you are about to get schooled.
GBR

School is in session: Got your mask?

We're not that far apart.

I think HC SF [and staff] has proven he can develop players to play above their initial ability and ranking. And he has even said that he needs to sign some key 4/5 star players to get NU back to where we were during the T.O. era.

I agree with HC SF [and the studies show] that for him to win the B1G conference he/we are going to need to recruit more 4 and 5 star athletes than previous coaches. Too many top teams in the B1G that recruit well. He also said NU will have to build up our walk on program [which SF is doing], build a better strength/conditioning program [is happening] develop/coach players to be better [still waiting to outcome] and recruit star talent in several key positions. He is trying to do that.

The most 4 stars we have signed was 9 in 2011. According to 247, our last 5 star recruit was in 2005, Marlon Lucky.
https://247sports.com/college/nebraska/Season/2018-Football/Commits/
Year = 4 star recruits/Record/HC
2018 = 6 --------------- 0 - 3.... Scott Frost [50 new players]
2017 = 6 --------------- 4 - 8.... Riley
2016 = 4 --------------- 9 - 4.... Riley
2015 = 4 --------------- 6 - 7.... Riley
2014 = 2 --------------- 9 - 4.... Bo
2013 = 7 --------------- 9 - 4.... Bo
2012 = 8 -------------- 10 - 4.... Bo
2011 = 9 ------- --------9 - 4.... Bo
2010 = 5 -------------- 10 - 4 ....Bo
2009 = 4 -------------- 10 - 4.... Bo
2008 = 3 --------------- 9 - 4.... Bo
2007 = 6 ------- --------5 - 7.... Callahan
2006 = 5 --------------- 9 - 5.... Callahan
2005 = 7 + one 5 Star --- 8 - 4 Callahan (#8 ranked recruiting class) [Suh, Lucky]
2004 = 2 --------------- 5 - 6.... Callahan
2003 = 2 ---------------10 - 3... Solich
2002 = 2 ---------------- 7 - 7... Solich

This site lists college football teams that have success with the least talent:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...he-most-with-the-least-talent-and-vice-versa/
No surprise in that list for me. NU is not there. Good coaches are essential and we now have one!

NU is on the line as not doing worse or better than we recruited in this study:
https://deadspin.com/chart-which-ncaa-football-teams-outplay-their-recruit-1640831522

Callahan had the #8 recruiting class in 2005 but couldn't capitalize on that success. Bo had good recruiting classes but couldn't get us there either although we did play for a Conference championship under him in 2012. NU hasn't won a conference championship since 1999! We won some division championships, i.e. 2012.
https://www.huskermax.com/games/conf_champs.html

HC SF is better than Callahan/Bo [anyone since Solich] and we believe he will get needed top recruits and classes we haven't seen since 2005.

BL: The more 4 and 5 star players we have the better our chances at winning the B1G and a NC. But we'll have to be able to keep them too.
https://www.omaha.com/huskers/blogs...cle_3bb5932b-85f8-5f7f-81b7-d7d6422a4c89.html

 

[Deleted member 4942]

I agree with everything from your post. Thanks for the response.

Honest Question: Do you think if Nebraska went back to a power running scheme (even if not the option necessarily) we might have somewhat equivalent success, or do you think that what the highschools are running scheme wise these days has changed significantly since 1995?

Scheme answer: NO
In large part due to NCAA.

They took away the ability to so called "cut block" which is a great advantage to the running schemes of the option offense and power running game of the Dr Tom era.

The NCAA then "legalized" holding compared to those days in terms of allowing o-linemen to engage with their hands as long as it stays within the frame work of their bodies (yeah sure!). This of course heavily favors the passing game, thus the changes over the past 20 years.

Doesnt mean you cant run option football (see Army, Navy, etc) just means that scheme and rules have changed in favor of other methods.