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Husker Country Doc Explains The Protocol Process And What it Will Take For Wisconsin To Play This Weekend (Please Read)

Red Reign

Red Reign

Husker Immortal
15 Year Member
These two posts are from a PM conversation I had with Doc a short while ago. Explains the whole process.

I thought it was worth putting on the open board to clear up a lot of misconception

Based on this I would think the odds are good the game still happens.

He is out n about right now and gave me his OK to post this on the open board.


Husker Country Doc said:
Correction: 5% seven day rolling average. They will be able to play.

at 113 tests per day, It would take 40 Tests over seven days to disqualify them

I base that number on this tweet:

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More

Husker Country Doc said:
im driving please do

what I can’t state though is do they continue to test every person every day, so the denominator remains 113, because once you’re positive you remain positive for weeks on the rapid test and I am not for certain how long you remain positive on the PCR test.
Click to expand...
 

Red Reign said:
These two posts are from a PM conversation I had with Doc a short while ago. Explains the whole process.

I thought it was worth putting on the open board to clear up a lot of misconception

Based on this I would think the odds are good the game still happens.

He is out n about right now and gave me his OK to post this on the open board.




More
Click to expand...
There is no way the game gets cancelled by the league. However, it appears Wisconsin can do it at a much lower number.

  • Test positivity rate (number of positive tests divided by total number of tests administered):
    • Green 0-2%
    • Orange 2-5%
    • Red >5%
  • Population positivity rate (number of positive individuals divided by total population at risk):
    • Green 0-3.5%
    • Orange 3.5-7.5%
    • Red >7.5%
Decisions to alter or halt practice and competition will be based on the following scenarios:
  • Green/Green and Green/Orange: Team continues with normal practice and competition.
  • Orange/Orange and Orange/Red: Team must proceed with caution and enhance COVID-19 prevention (alter practice and meeting schedule, consider viability of continuing with scheduled competition).
  • Red/Red: Team must stop regular practice and competition for a minimum of seven days and reassess metrics until improved.
 



In this scenario, Wisconsin could decide they can't play the game, but because they are not in the red, could continue to practice. Then, if 21 days is in time for Michigan, they could limit the damage to 1 game.
 
RedRum said:
There is no way the game gets cancelled by the league. However, it appears Wisconsin can do it at a much lower number.

  • Test positivity rate (number of positive tests divided by total number of tests administered):
    • Green 0-2%
    • Orange 2-5%
    • Red >5%
  • Population positivity rate (number of positive individuals divided by total population at risk):
    • Green 0-3.5%
    • Orange 3.5-7.5%
    • Red >7.5%
Decisions to alter or halt practice and competition will be based on the following scenarios:
  • Green/Green and Green/Orange: Team continues with normal practice and competition.
  • Orange/Orange and Orange/Red: Team must proceed with caution and enhance COVID-19 prevention (alter practice and meeting schedule, consider viability of continuing with scheduled competition).
  • Red/Red: Team must stop regular practice and competition for a minimum of seven days and reassess metrics until improved.
Click to expand...

So far it does not appear Wisconsin plans to do that. Of course that could change. I would think they would have to have a drop dead date on making a decision. I think we end up playing
 
BigRedAvenger said:
This is all so confusing. I certainly hope he is interpreting it correctly and we are not as close as it appears to losing out on this game.
Click to expand...

He probably is interpreting it correctly.

Now what are the odds that Crayon-Eater Kevin can also interpret it properly and not screw the pooch?

1603823380561.jpeg
 
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ShortSideOption said:
They test everyday to get the number lower. They will not test anyone that is out the 21 days.
Click to expand...

Agreed, makes no sense to test some more who is a confirmed positive. Wasteful of resources and I don't think they really want to get their numbers up to a point where they can't practice.

I need to do some reading on what type of testing they are doing everyday. Just like the antigen test both can remain positive for quite some time given the degree of illness and the fidelity of the sampling. RT-PCR and antigen (direct SARS-Cov2 detection) both only show when you have actual viral particles (RNA for the PCR, and Protein for antigen screening).

Length of time and sampling matter a ton for both tests. In theory RT-PCR should be detectible about 4 days before symptom onset and remain positive for ~10 days. When you are dealing with a population of low symptom presentation, you might not pick up until they are already at their peak. My thought is that 14 days after initial positive is plenty conservative for a back to action situation. 10 day quarantines are considered effects, so the 21 days make no sense. Obviously someone who was majorly symptomatic may need longer than 14 days, so they went 21? No one is at risk for additional spleen rupture or any competitive sports side effects to my knowledge, so they are over board on the 21.

Rolling averages of 5% for that small of a population is gonna get silly. The 9 that are positive, once cleared will go back into daily testing, and no longer test positive, artificially bumping up the denominator.
 
Ok well this is all different than I had interpreted or had explained to me. So essentially its not having 5% of your players testing positive. Its 5 percent of the tests and once a person tests positive he is no longer another new case. So if you are testing 120 players a day then essentially you could have 5-6 NEW cases each day and still be under the threshold. Or in other words. Less than 42 new cases in any given week? That seems a little weird.
 

Thank you RR and HCD for this explanation.
Every game that gets played seems like a bonus. Just glad this Saturday still looks likely.
 
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