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Head Coaching Carousel 2023/4

HuskerSuperGenius

Scout Team
5 Year Member
TEAMCOACHGRADEANALYSIS
team logoJonathan SmithA+Smith may be quiet and low key. God knows, Michigan State absolutely needed quiet and low key. He took Oregon State from shambles to showtime in six seasons. The poor Spartans needed some guidance. With Oregon State marginalized, no one can blame Smith for moving on. This was a home run for a program that needs to rebuild from the studs -- physically, morally and wisely. Bringing along QB Aidan Chiles is a great start for an offense that was an eyesore. Smith knows how to coach QBs. He was one of the Beavers' best. He will have every chance to show what Michigan State could be.
team logoWillie FritzAThere was a resounding "Good for Willie!" around the coaching profession when Fritz got this job. The likable 63-year-old has spent 31 years as a head coach waiting to get into what is now the Power Four. He is a program builder with eight 10-win seasons and seven conference titles. Fritz has always been one of those under-the-radar treasures. The Cougars can dream of winning the Big 12 and playing for a national championship thanks to Willie. You want hot? Houston gets a coach who turned Tulane from 2-10 to 23-4 the last two seasons – including an AAC title and New Year's Six bowl win.
team logoMike ElkoA-Sometimes, the best solution is right in front of you. After all the consternation, after all the hand-wringing, after all the buyout money, the Aggies didn't overthink it. As a coordinator, Elko gave Texas A&M its most continuity in recent years. He had to go somewhere else (Duke) to get starter-job experience. Though "bigger" names popped up, the Aggies finally united for once on the right choice. Elko will have to get used to folks looking over his shoulder, but after winning 16 games in two seasons at Duke, he's ready for the job.
team logoBronco MendenhallB+Two years ago, Bronco abruptly resigned at Virginia to reconnect with his family. That apparently went well enough for him to return to the profession at one of FBS's worst programs. The man can run a program having averaged eight wins in 17 years at BYU and UVA. Mendenhall must first win the state. Then, he must get New Mexico competitive in an improving Mountain West. New Mexico is typically an entry-level job. Since 1950, only one coach has come directly from an FBS-level job to coach the Aggies. If there is a guy to root for on this list, it's Mendenhall.
team logoSean LewisB+The Aztecs just need to be exciting again. They will be that under Lewis, one of the most accomplished offensive minds in the game. He should not be remembered for being demoted at Colorado but for being the second-most important cog in the Buffaloes' 3-0 start after his preening boss. With the expanded College Football Playoff, the Aztecs can dream of competing berths if everything goes right. Historically, SDSU's best teams have been offensive powerhouses. Surprise! Lewis, at age 37, begins his sixth year as a head coach.
team logoJon SumrallB+The Green Wave hit a home run in quickly replacing Fritz. Sumrall went 23-4 in two seasons at Troy winning consecutive Sun Belt titles. He was Tulane's co-defensive coordinator from 2012-14 under Curtis Johnson. The pieces are in place to continue to win big in the American.
team logoManny DiazBDecades apart, Steve Spurrier and Mike Elko proved what Duke could be. Look for Diaz to bring immediate continuity. Penn State's defensive coordinator comes armed with experience and wisdom after leading Miami to three bowl games from 2019-21. The expectations are certainly lower this time around. Diaz has spent 18 years in the Power Five (15 in the ACC) as a staffer, assistant and coach. Since being fired after Texas' defense gave up 550 rushing yards to BYU in 2013, Diaz has rebuilt his resume. Penn State finished ninth and 13th in scoring defense across his two seasons.
team logoCurt CignettiBThis is a fantastic hire for a diminished program. Indiana paid too much and stuck too long with Tom Allen. Cignetti was 52-9 at James Madison where he shepherded the Dukes to FBS membership. But is Cignetti ready for the strongest Big Ten in history? The 62-year-old certainly has the blessing of Nick Saban having won a national championship as wide receivers coach in 2009. Cignetti's dad is in the College Football Hall of Fame as a coach. His brother has spent extensive time in the NFL and Power Five as an assistant.
team logoDavid BraunBA year ago, was Braun was the defensive coordinator at an FCS powerhouse (North Dakota State). No one could have written his story. Braun was tabbed to take over when Fitzgerald was fired amid the hazing scandal. Then he turned in a national coach of the year-worthy season. The Wildcats are 7-5 heading into the Las Vegas Bowl with a chance to win eight games for the first time since 2018. There is still a bit of a honeymoon period here, but Braun rallied the Wildcats. His long-term viability is unknown, but this is one hell of a start.
team logoTrent BrayBThis is more of a program grade. The loss of Smith and two QBs (Chiles, DJ Uiagalelei) were evidence of the Beavers' diminished standing with the Pac-12 collapsing. The football budget is about to plummet. Oregon State is competing in a vacuum as it just completed a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West. Bray must recruit at a power-league level without such designation. The upside is Bray being a former Beavers linebacker who coached under Mike Riley. In-house is good, for now. Bray has been at Oregon State since 2018.
team logoSpencer DanielsonBIn his short time as interim coach, Danielson made quite an impression. After he took over for the fired Andy Avalos, he guided the Broncos to three straight wins, including a Mountain West title. That made him the first interim coach to lead an FBS team to a conference crown. If familiarity means anything, this was a home-run hire. Danielson has spent seven years in Boise, the last three as defensive coordinator.
team logoJeff ChoateBWe can only judge by the buzz. Choate's name comes up frequently in job searches. He was an assistant at Boise State the last time the Broncos were really good (2006-11). Choate spent a decade coaching in the MWC counting time at Utah State. As a head coach, he led Montana State to consecutive FCS playoffs. Will Choate get a ring if Texas wins the national title? He was co-defensive coordinator for the Longhorns over the last three seasons. This year's unit might be the best since the 2009 squad that lost to Alabama in the BCS Championship Game.
team logoJeff LebbyB-For the second consecutive hire, MSU has brought in a guy without head coaching experience. That can be a killer in the SEC. Lebby's (football) philosophy is heavily influenced by his father in law, Art Briles. That's why he was hired. Lebby's offensive philosophy harkens back not only to Briles but Mike Leach. And the Bulldogs haven't been the same since Leach's passing. Lebby brings loads of that experience as offensive coordinator at UCF, Ole Miss and Oklahoma. This year's Sooners finished third in scoring (43.2).
team logoBob ChesneyB-Seems like a lot of continuity here. Chesney comes from FCS's Holy Cross where he led the Crusaders to five straight Patriot League titles. But as JMU no doubt indicated in the interview, Chesney is jumping up to the big time. The roster is loaded. It better be because so is the Sun Belt. Prior to this season, Chesney took the Crusaders to four straight FCS playoffs.
team logoFran BrownC+I get that Brown has some juice as the assistant at Kirby Smart's favorite position (defensive backs) at Georgia. I also know that jumping from position coach to Power Five head coach has its challenges -- especially at a place like Syracuse. Brown will have to learn on the fly. He is armed with a national title ring (in 2022) and possibly a difference-making QB in portal acquisition Kyle McCord from Ohio State. So far so good.
team logoJay SawvelC+This transition was fairly seamless when Craig Bohl resigned Dec. 7 to reportedly become the new executive director of the American Football Coaches Association. Sawvel has been the Cowboys' defensive boss since 2020. In that time, Wyoming finished in the top three in the Mountain West in total defense three times in four years. If the Cowboys beat Toledo in the Arizona Bowl on Dec. 30, they will finish with their best record (9-4) since ascending to FBS in 1998. Great walk off for Bohl. Great opportunity for Sawvel.
team logoBryan VincentCVincent's best resume bullet point is being UAB's interim coach in 2022 when Bill Clark went down with back problems. He guided the Blazers to a 7-6 record, including a bowl berth. ULM doesn't have much money and hasn't finished above .500 since 2012. The former New Mexico offensive coordinator lost his job when Danny Gonzales was fired this year.
team logoScotty WaldenCThere is sure to be plenty of rope here. UTEP stuck with Dana Dimel for six years during which he won only 20 games. Walden comes from Austin Peay where he went 26-14 in four seasons. The former Sul Ross State player actually became an assistant coach with the Lobos in his final semester as an athlete. Conference USA's Liberty snagged a New Year's Six spot, so anything is possible(?).
team logoDerek MasonC-After 16 years of Rick Stockstill, this hire might have been better served as a young prospect with more upside. We love Mason but also know he's a defensive-minded coach with a 27-55 career record at Vanderbilt. Mason knows the Tennessee landscape, but if MTSU wants to sell tickets, it needs to grab a QB out of the portal and play entertaining football. Who is your favorite team? Mason might have been much more valuable as defensive coordinator. That's what he does best.
team logoGerad ParkerC-Parker was the in-house choice for Notre Dame offensive coordinator when Tommy Rees went to Alabama. The Fighting Irish finished in the top 10 nationally averaging almost seven yards per play. In 2021, with Parker calling plays, West Virginia was 92nd in total offense. He inherits a Group of Five power after building back his career. In 2017, East Carolina took back its offer to be WR coach when Parker was charged with DUI. He went to Duke that year to become an offensive analyst. Three years later, he became a coordinator for the first time. Parker has never stayed in one place very long. This is his eighth stop in the last 17 years.

Dec. 21 2023.
 
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TEAMINOUTANALYSIS
team logoJimbo FisherFisher was fired after posting a 45-25 record in six seasons with the Aggies. He's owed over $77 million to be paid out through 2021.
team logoMel Tucker (cause)Tucker was fired in September amid allegations of sexual harassment. He was 20-14 in four seasons with the Spartans.
team logoZach ArnettArnett was fired after posting a 5-6 record with the Bulldogs in his first full season after taking over for the late Mike Leach.
team logoPat Fitzgerald (cause)Fitzgerald was dismissed after an investigation revealed a culture of hazing within the program. He was 110-101 in 17 seasons leading the Wildcats.
team logoAndy AvalosAvalos was let go after 10 games in the 2023 season. He was 22-14 in three seasons leading the Broncos.
team logoBrady Hoke (retired)Hoke was 39-30 in two stints with Aztecs (2009-10, 2020-23). He was 104-90 overall as a head coach with stops at Ball State (2003-08), Michigan (2011-14) and as an interim coach at Tennessee (2017).

Thanks for compiling this!

Who do you think will be next?
 
Tom Allen probably has the hottest seat in the B1G.

Sam Pittman's seat at Arkansas has to be hot. Florida probably gives their guy another year, but who knows. They could be a wild card.

Most Big XII coaches are probably safe.

I don't follow the ACC or PAC enough to care. The coaches at their annual upper tier schools are pretty safe. This might be a relatively quiet coaching carousel with only aTm as a true top tier school looking for a new HC.
 
Tom Allen probably has the hottest seat in the B1G.

Sam Pittman's seat at Arkansas has to be hot. Florida probably gives their guy another year, but who knows. They could be a wild card.

Most Big XII coaches are probably safe.

I don't follow the ACC or PAC enough to care. The coaches at their annual upper tier schools are pretty safe. This might be a relatively quiet coaching carousel with only aTm as a true top tier school looking for a new HC.
Good summation of Power 5 Hot Seats in my estimation.

Vanderbilt's HC is also doing very poorly at the 3 year mark, but your have to wonder if they even care.....

You could see more movement in the next week as Schools look to get things done pushed by the signing deadline and the Portal: Don't want to lose a whole year of recruiting with a coaching change.
 



Nice to see this thread back. I think you have a typo in Jumbo's box. Paid out through 2021 makes no sense. 2031 possibly?
 
Tom Allen probably has the hottest seat in the B1G.

Sam Pittman's seat at Arkansas has to be hot. Florida probably gives their guy another year, but who knows. They could be a wild card.

Most Big XII coaches are probably safe.

I don't follow the ACC or PAC enough to care. The coaches at their annual upper tier schools are pretty safe. This might be a relatively quiet coaching carousel with only aTm as a true top tier school looking for a new HC.
Wasn't it Florida that wanted Frost when he came here. Wonder if they would still be interested.
 
Wasn't it Florida that wanted Frost when he came here. Wonder if they would still be interested.
Yes, they were interested. Going off other posters, the AD was adamant that Frost not bring his UCF staff and that was a deal breaker. I don't know the validity of that, but will take it at face value.

Not sure if they'd be interested in him now. I'd be surprised, but stranger things have happened. We can all find excuses to fit our confirmation biases - "he couldn't get the type of player he needs at NE but could here at FL", "he's proven he can recruit and coach in FL", "his wife / family is happy in FL so that issue is won't be here for him..."

FL has been burned by getting the hot coordinator (Muschamp), successful lower level coach (Napier) so will be interesting to see where they go. I could see mutual interest between the Gators and Lane Kiffin - both parties believing he can do more with just a bit better talent than he can get at Ole Miss. Wouldn't surprise me a bit.
 




A lot of smoke at UCLA.

I've seen some articles indicating that Kelly will be fired after the USC game if they lose, and after the Cal game if they beat USC. I have no idea if that's true, but I do know that many alums think that he's had enough time and just hasn't gotten the job done. It's hard to argue otherwise.

I can't imagine that the USC boosters are very happy with Riley right now with him having lost four of the last five games. If USC loses to UCLA they'll be apoplectic.
 
I've seen some articles indicating that Kelly will be fired after the USC game if they lose, and after the Cal game if they beat USC. I have no idea if that's true, but I do know that many alums think that he's had enough time and just hasn't gotten the job done. It's hard to argue otherwise.

I can't imagine that the USC boosters are very happy with Riley right now with him having lost four of the last five games. If USC loses to UCLA they'll be apoplectic.
It appears both USC and UCLA may come limping into the Big 10 next year.
 





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