It’s better to over estimate than under estimate at this point. Actual vs estimated is way more relevant in my opinion. Estimated is more of a planning tool than anything.If there's one thing that can be clearly demonstrated by watching current events, it's that "experts" can be wrong, and frequently are.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying let's go have a rave (and blatantly disregarding social distancing recommendations shows a clear lack of wisdom). But the models have, understandably, overestimated the results. It's fair to begin discussing when and how our lives should get back to normal.