Frost on football this fall

[Scott in NY]

I posted about this in HT a bit ago. Harvard just announced online only classes for the entire year, and the Ivy League is set to vote this week to postpone/cancel the fall sports season. No school wants to be the first domino to fall, but I think the Ivy League will take that pressure off everyone else. I believe the Ivy League was the first to cancel its basketball tournament in March. By the end of next week, there's going to be a lot of unwelcome news for college athletics.

I can't stress enough how unbelievably exhausting it will be on a daily basis for student-athletes, coaching staffs, AT's and support staff to forge through for a fall sports season. The amount of work it will take is just too time consuming and costly for most colleges, and that's before an outbreak occurs, and there will be outbreaks. Not at every school, but some will be hit harder than others.

My job revolves around college athletics, so it brings me no joy to be this pessimistic. I'm a firm believer that society needs to get back to normal at some point, and the on-campus college experience, and college athletics is part of that. Then this hits at UW. That's not a good look for encouraging kids to move back into dorms.

Everything you've written here (unfortunately) is 100% correct.

 

[ShortSideOption]

I posted about this in HT a bit ago. Harvard just announced online only classes for the entire year, and the Ivy League is set to vote this week to postpone/cancel the fall sports season. No school wants to be the first domino to fall, but I think the Ivy League will take that pressure off everyone else. I believe the Ivy League was the first to cancel its basketball tournament in March. By the end of next week, there's going to be a lot of unwelcome news for college athletics.

I can't stress enough how unbelievably exhausting it will be on a daily basis for student-athletes, coaching staffs, AT's and support staff to forge through for a fall sports season. The amount of work it will take is just too time consuming and costly for most colleges, and that's before an outbreak occurs, and there will be outbreaks. Not at every school, but some will be hit harder than others.

My job revolves around college athletics, so it brings me no joy to be this pessimistic. I'm a firm believer that society needs to get back to normal at some point, and the on-campus college experience, and college athletics is part of that. Then this hits at UW. That's not a good look for encouraging kids to move back into dorms.

SEC and B1G are not having the Ivy League dictate anything. Especially football. Ivy League doesn’t care about sports. We will see how this Saturday goes.

 

[Row 90]

That is a choice to be made by each individual. Those that decide it is worth the risk to attend an event, be it a sporting event, church, a dinner out or mud wrestling are the ones who have made the decision they feel is best for them. Those that are comfortable with absolutely no risk do not attend anything or go anywhere.

I think positive coaches and players do not participate in games. If the team doesn't want to compete or can't compete, then an alternative opponent may become available due to other teams having the same issues. If NO alternative opponent is available, that would mean it isn't a wide spread issue.

This first sentence in this post gets right to the heart of the problem.

I wonder if fewer people made those “individual” decisions, and more made some “how can I help society right now” decisions... we might see those case numbers plummet.

(Of course, in an infectious disease pandemic, “individual” decision is a fallacy. We’re in this together.)

 

[Kwajsker]

Zero chance of keeping 6 feet apart coming and going in and out of the stadium whether it's full or only one third full. Now that the experts are strongly considering the virus to be airborne, and with the way the wind swirls in Memorial Stadium, it is actually more like a petri dish than it is not. The bathroom situation alone would be impossible to social distance. You'd miss more than half the game in a six foot space of people waiting to pee.

Maybe they could build longer urinal troughs? Assign everyone catheters? Reuse your Pepsi bottle?


No major spread occurred from outdoor protests. Not a single city has reported a rise from them. Not even from Trump's Tulsa rallies, which were going to infect the entire group. Not a peep anywhere about people getting the virus from those events.

And we want to act like going to a football game will result in an explosion of new cases?

Much of Europe and WHO only recommends 1 meter distance (Article). and their cases are going down. Maybe we are standing too far apart and that is the problem.

And what if everyone wore masks? The way they are being presented that should prevent any possibility of transmission.

I am not intending to be combative here, it just seems so obvious to me that attending a football game is an even less likely way to transmit than outdoor protests. And those didn't show any evidence of transmitting. Especially if you take precautions, the stadium is maybe half full, and you don't kiss strangers. But asserting that the winds in the stadium may spread the virus is misinformation. Or how long this virus can survive outside of a person on a fall day in the sun? (Article - hint: it dies outside in the sun in minutes)

And, again, do you know what a petri dish is? You are the second person to say they are alike so I will be annoying and dispute this because that idea is obviously catching on.

This is a petri dish. I was shocked when I found one online, because you are the second person to say they are like Memorial Stadium. I couldn't believe that they are in fact, tiny. And they have lids that must be put on, or they don't work since the stuff inside dries up, killing it all. And they have a nutrient-rich substrate that allows bacteria (not viruses) to grow on them. Yep, that is right. Viruses can't grow in Petri dishes. So if Memorial is in fact like a petri dish, then we are good to go!

This is Memorial Stadium. If you notice, there is no lid. and it is huge. No nutrient rich material, known as agar, which can't grow viruses anyway, since a virus is not able to survive outside a host. Oh, and based on a few measurements, well over 25K could be inside the stands and still have over 6 feet in between them, which is double what the WHO recommends for social distancing.

We can't act like going to Memorial Stadium cannot be done safely. It can. This why they are hopeful for games in the fall. It can be done safely.

The misinformation just gets to me, sometimes! I talk to so many people who will literally not go on a walk around a lake by them self with out fear of getting the virus and I just want to bring some reason to the whole conversation. Frost talked about having football in the fall because they are (hopefully) operating with an understanding of some of these things and not trying to make fear-based decisions!

I feel like a need a thread ban or something so I can stop responding to all of this!

 

[Porkchopexpress]

SEC and B1G are not having the Ivy League dictate anything. Especially football. Ivy League doesn’t care about sports. We will see how this Saturday goes.

We all thought the same thing in March when the Ivy League was the first to cancel it's basketball tournament and all its spring sports about a week before everyone else. The Ivy League will take the pressure off other more academically focused schools to make their call on sports in the fall. Eventually, that will snowball. I expect the SEC and probably the Big XII to hold out the longest.

 

[gardenjam]

Who wants to be the coach of a kid who dies from the Flu? That is MUCH more likely than them dying from Covid

Are you serious? Where do you get your information? That would be great news if it were true.

 

[gardenjam]

What I don't understand about all of this is how the 1918 flu seems to be completely forgotten. We're doing the exact same thing that happened then.

Everyone was on lockdown, they even had fines if you went out, but people were tired of staying home and there were concerns about the economy, so the summer came and everything started opening back up. Unsurprisingly, the number of cases and deaths skyrocketed. Come fall, they had to shut everything down again. That sounds awfully familiar.

I can't understand why people have this cavalier attitude of, "well, they're young, the chances are low that they're going to get sick or die, so the season should happen". Sure, they're young and healthy, but how low of a percentage are we comfortable with to say the risk is negligible? How can any of us determine the risk someone else should take on when it involves their health?

Lets say the season comes and for the most part, all teams only have a player or two with Covid. But then a few games into the season on multiple teams, a large number of the players or even a few coaches get it. Which can very easily happen. They don't show symptoms, but they were tested and have it. Do teams take the attitude of, "well, they're young, lets risk the health of the opposing team's players and coaches and let them play anyway"? Or, do they make them sit out? If the first scenario happens, I would lose the little faith I have left in humanity. If it's the second scenario, there could be teams that would barely have enough players to field a team or they may not have enough at all.

Some on here have argued that you can't live in fear, and that you just have to live your life, but it really makes me wonder if they are genuinely concerned about the well-being of the players and coaches and think the risk is worth it, or if deep down, they just don't want their entertainment taken away from them.

Well said

 

[Huskerwisdom]

Are you serious? Where do you get your information? That would be great news if it were true.

this is a hospitalization comparison between the flu from the past few years versus Covid. While the cut-off is a bit clunky for 18-49 years old, you can pretty accurately draw the curve out to 22 from the lower ages. The bulk of that group's hospitalizations are in the > 45 range.

As an example for people < 45 in Florida there have been 100K cases, of those there have been 28 deaths. Hospitalizations start to climb around 30-35 though.

Through June there were a total of 151 deaths total in the under 25 range. While I don't have exact matches on all of them, it's a great bet that ALL of them had serious, dangerous underlying conditions.

Coronavirus: COVID Deaths in U.S. by Age, Race

While coronavirus is obviously concerning and a very real threat to some people (namely, the elderly and immunocompromised), these data also show that the risk for the rest of the population is quite low.

www.acsh.org

versus:

Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 Flu Season | CDC

CDC calculates estimates of disease burden in the United States using surveillance data and modeling to adjust for sources of under-detection. Burden estimates for the 2018-2019 season found here.

www.cdc.gov

just looking at 2018/19 for instance:
0-4 years - 266 flu deaths vs. 8 covid deaths
5-17 estimated 211 flu deaths vs. 13 covid deaths 5-14 ages (somewhat higher as the ranges don't match and I don't want to tear apart the Databases to match them)

hard to get college age comparisons but you can draw the curves

Covid isn't a serious problem for young people and not a problem at all for children unless there's a very serious underlying condition.

I'll toss in this quote also "
CDC: "For children (0-17 years), cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than cumulative influenza hospitalization rates at comparable time points during recent influenza seasons." twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/sta…

 

[1standten]

Maybe they could build longer urinal troughs? Assign everyone catheters? Reuse your Pepsi bottle?


No major spread occurred from outdoor protests. Not a single city has reported a rise from them. Not even from Trump's Tulsa rallies, which were going to infect the entire group. Not a peep anywhere about people getting the virus from those events.

And we want to act like going to a football game will result in an explosion of new cases?

Much of Europe and WHO only recommends 1 meter distance (Article). and their cases are going down. Maybe we are standing too far apart and that is the problem.

And what if everyone wore masks? The way they are being presented that should prevent any possibility of transmission.

I am not intending to be combative here, it just seems so obvious to me that attending a football game is an even less likely way to transmit than outdoor protests. And those didn't show any evidence of transmitting. Especially if you take precautions, the stadium is maybe half full, and you don't kiss strangers. But asserting that the winds in the stadium may spread the virus is misinformation. Or how long this virus can survive outside of a person on a fall day in the sun? (Article - hint: it dies outside in the sun in minutes)

And, again, do you know what a petri dish is? You are the second person to say they are alike so I will be annoying and dispute this because that idea is obviously catching on.


View attachment 46787
This is a petri dish. I was shocked when I found one online, because you are the second person to say they are like Memorial Stadium. I couldn't believe that they are in fact, tiny. And they have lids that must be put on, or they don't work since the stuff inside dries up, killing it all. And they have a nutrient-rich substrate that allows bacteria (not viruses) to grow on them. Yep, that is right. Viruses can't grow in Petri dishes. So if Memorial is in fact like a petri dish, then we are good to go!
View attachment 46788
This is Memorial Stadium. If you notice, there is no lid. and it is huge. No nutrient rich material, known as agar, which can't grow viruses anyway, since a virus is not able to survive outside a host. Oh, and based on a few measurements, well over 25K could be inside the stands and still have over 6 feet in between them, which is double what the WHO recommends for social distancing.

We can't act like going to Memorial Stadium cannot be done safely. It can. This why they are hopeful for games in the fall. It can be done safely.

The misinformation just gets to me, sometimes! I talk to so many people who will literally not go on a walk around a lake by them self with out fear of getting the virus and I just want to bring some reason to the whole conversation. Frost talked about having football in the fall because they are (hopefully) operating with an understanding of some of these things and not trying to make fear-based decisions!

I feel like a need a thread ban or something so I can stop responding to all of this!

I appreciate that you state you are not intending to be combative, but if you really can't grasp how the liability of hosting a venue in Memorial Stadium differs from that of people demonstrating in an open street, then you'll likely struggle mightly to understand if the Big Ten announces no fall sports.

fwiw- I've worked in a clinical lab for over 30 years, so I apologize if I used the term 'petri dish' to liken a virus spread to that of bacterial spread. It wasn't intended to be taken literally, but I must say your pictorial rant did give me a chuckle and reminded me how truly lacking some of the public is in their understanding of what is taking place with the current Covid crisis. I should choose my words more cautiously. Point taken.

 

[mulletpelini]

Close contact by definition is within 6 feet for 15 minutes....passing close by someone on the way to a seat wouldn't count.

Well count me corrected. And here I was worried because a sneeze travelling over 100 mph and up to 27 feet in less than a second was a concern......

 

[gardenjam]

this is a hospitalization comparison between the flu from the past few years versus Covid. While the cut-off is a bit clunky for 18-49 years old, you can pretty accurately draw the curve out to 22 from the lower ages. The bulk of that group's hospitalizations are in the > 45 range.

As an example for people < 45 in Florida there have been 100K cases, of those there have been 28 deaths. Hospitalizations start to climb around 30-35 though.

Through June there were a total of 151 deaths total in the under 25 range. While I don't have exact matches on all of them, it's a great bet that ALL of them had serious, dangerous underlying conditions.

Coronavirus: COVID Deaths in U.S. by Age, Race

While coronavirus is obviously concerning and a very real threat to some people (namely, the elderly and immunocompromised), these data also show that the risk for the rest of the population is quite low.

www.acsh.org

versus:

Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 Flu Season | CDC

CDC calculates estimates of disease burden in the United States using surveillance data and modeling to adjust for sources of under-detection. Burden estimates for the 2018-2019 season found here.

www.cdc.gov

just looking at 2018/19 for instance:
0-4 years - 266 flu deaths vs. 8 covid deaths
5-17 estimated 211 flu deaths vs. 13 covid deaths 5-14 ages (somewhat higher as the ranges don't match and I don't want to tear apart the Databases to match them)

hard to get college age comparisons but you can draw the curves

Covid isn't a serious problem for young people and not a problem at all for children unless there's a very serious underlying condition.

I'll toss in this quote also "
CDC: "For children (0-17 years), cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than cumulative influenza hospitalization rates at comparable time points during recent influenza seasons." twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/sta…

Thank you for your thoughtful response. My search revealed different results, articles right at the top of my search are below and worth reading.

American Heart Association | To be a relentless force for a world of longer, healthier lives

Learn more about the American Heart Association's efforts to reduce death caused by heart disease and stroke. Also learn about cardiovascular conditions, ECC and CPR, donating, heart disease information for healthcare professionals, caregivers, and educators and healthy living.

healthmetrics.heart.org

Comparing seasonal influenza (flu) mortality to the mortality rate of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) is a threat to public health and demonstrates the lack of understanding about how the data is collected for each infection by varying agencies, according to a Viewpoint published in JAMA Internal Medicine.


By the numbers, according to the paper:

• There were 15,455 COVID-19 deaths reported in the US during the week ending April 21, 2020.
• There were 14,478 COVID-19 deaths reported in the US during the week prior.
• There were 351 flu deaths during the peak week (week 11 of 2016) of the flu season in 2015-16.
• There were 1626 flu deaths during the peak week (week 3 of 2018) of the flu season in 2018-19.

“These statistics on counted deaths suggest that the number of COVID-19 deaths for the week ending April 21 was 9.5-fold to 44.1-fold greater than the peak week of counted influenza deaths during the past 7 influenza seasons in the US, with a 20.5-fold mean increase,” the authors wrote.

The CDC also recognizes that their COVID-19 death counts are continually revised due to delays in reporting. The authors believed that the ratio of counted COVID-19 deaths to flu deaths will rise. Additionally, they said their ratios are more clinically consistent with the experiences of health care workers on the front lines.

“We infer that either the CDC’s annual estimates substantially overstate the actual number of deaths caused by influenza or that the current number of COVID-19 counted deaths substantially understates the actual number of deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2, or both,” they wrote.


“Although officials may say that SARS-CoV-2 is ‘just another flu,’ this is not true,” the authors concluded. “Our analysis suggests that comparisons between SARS-CoV-2 mortality and seasonal influenza mortality must be made using an apples-to-apples comparison, not an apples-to-oranges comparison. Doing so better demonstrates the true threat to public health from COVID-19.”

Why Comparing Flu and COVID-19 Severity Is Not Equivalent

Experts argue that though public officials may liken coronavirus to "just another flu," the true numbers show a stark difference.

www.contagionlive.com

 

[SSM]

What I don't understand about all of this is how the 1918 flu seems to be completely forgotten. We're doing the exact same thing that happened then.

Everyone was on lockdown, they even had fines if you went out, but people were tired of staying home and there were concerns about the economy, so the summer came and everything started opening back up. Unsurprisingly, the number of cases and deaths skyrocketed. Come fall, they had to shut everything down again. That sounds awfully familiar.

I can't understand why people have this cavalier attitude of, "well, they're young, the chances are low that they're going to get sick or die, so the season should happen". Sure, they're young and healthy, but how low of a percentage are we comfortable with to say the risk is negligible? How can any of us determine the risk someone else should take on when it involves their health?

Lets say the season comes and for the most part, all teams only have a player or two with Covid. But then a few games into the season on multiple teams, a large number of the players or even a few coaches get it. Which can very easily happen. They don't show symptoms, but they were tested and have it. Do teams take the attitude of, "well, they're young, lets risk the health of the opposing team's players and coaches and let them play anyway"? Or, do they make them sit out? If the first scenario happens, I would lose the little faith I have left in humanity. If it's the second scenario, there could be teams that would barely have enough players to field a team or they may not have enough at all.

Some on here have argued that you can't live in fear, and that you just have to live your life, but it really makes me wonder if they are genuinely concerned about the well-being of the players and coaches and think the risk is worth it, or if deep down, they just don't want their entertainment taken away from them.

Man, I get your concerns and I am not at all discounting your concerns....logical debate is good...which doesn't seem to be able to happen often in our current climate. I think if we were in the same place medical / treatment wise as we were in 1918 and the Covid Flu affected all age groups evenly, I'd probably be completely on your side.

Here is my attempt to explain why I think this way.

From my perspective, I don't see how you can compare to the Spanish Flu. The Spanish flu affected all age groups and killed like 650k in USA (don't quote me, I am generalizing).
Fact: We had little to no antibiotics for secondary infections.
Fact: Spanish flu was deadly in all age groups.
Opinion: I will contend that our current death total is not as high as reported, but I’ll concede that number anyway.

It is always difficult to get a real view as all of the news, CDC, WHO all have agenda's....so somebody not wanting a bias view has to look at things from a lot of different angles and piece together whatever they feel is logical. That is a sad fact. Watch CNN or the other left channels and COVID was created by Trump and represents nuclear holocaust. Watch Fox and it’s not really a big deal and things are getting better. You get two extremes, so it really appears to me that people tend to develop their beliefs based on which news they watch and some based on their experience with people close to them that caught COVID.

The one thing that I am certain of is that my opinion; that we should have sports, has nothing to do with the fear of losing my entertainment. Not agreeing with somebody else's view doesn't mean humanity is lost. When we can no longer tolerate another dissenting view point, then humanity is lost. It seems we are close to that point unfortunately. I keep hope alive thinking that it is only divisive because it is an election year.

I seriously do not think we are going to come out of this ordeal if we don't let the flu run its course so-to-speak. That doesn't mean we should just full blown open up and forget it existed, but I don't think it means we should just stay home and worry every time we venture out and come in contact with other humans. I think people need to be smart with their choices and assess their own risk tolerance. If players don't want to play this year, I suspect the colleges would allow them to sit out with no penalty. Let those that want to play, play. That seems logical, but I doubt it would work as those that wanted to play would probably be labeled and pressured to conform to those that were against it. Someway, somehow, it will be turned into a political decision...probably within 30 seconds.

What are we going to do if we have only limited immunity after infection and it becomes like a Cold virus that we can get at anytime, anywhere each year or every 4 - 6 months? Just hibernate and quit life or simply wait for a virus vaccine that is full proof?

Again, I get your opinions, I respect your opinions, but I can't quite agree with the logic fully.

And for the record, I am probably not in the highest risk category at age 50 and relatively good health...so, I recognize that may bias my opinion a bit...even though I only see my opinion as logical.

Have a good day.

 

[Huskerphin]

Man, I get your concerns and I am not at all discounting your concerns....logical debate is good...which doesn't seem to be able to happen often in our current climate. I think if we were in the same place medical / treatment wise as we were in 1918 and the Covid Flu affected all age groups evenly, I'd probably be completely on your side.

Here is my attempt to explain why I think this way.

From my perspective, I don't see how you can compare to the Spanish Flu. The Spanish flu affected all age groups and killed like 650k in USA (don't quote me, I am generalizing).
Fact: We had little to no antibiotics for secondary infections.
Fact: Spanish flu was deadly in all age groups.
Opinion: I will contend that our current death total is not as high as reported, but I’ll concede that number anyway.

It is always difficult to get a real view as all of the news, CDC, WHO all have agenda's....so somebody not wanting a bias view has to look at things from a lot of different angles and piece together whatever they feel is logical. That is a sad fact. Watch CNN or the other left channels and COVID was created by Trump and represents nuclear holocaust. Watch Fox and it’s not really a big deal and things are getting better. You get two extremes, so it really appears to me that people tend to develop their beliefs based on which news they watch and some based on their experience with people close to them that caught COVID.

The one thing that I am certain of is that my opinion; that we should have sports, has nothing to do with the fear of losing my entertainment. Not agreeing with somebody else's view doesn't mean humanity is lost. When we can no longer tolerate another dissenting view point, then humanity is lost. It seems we are close to that point unfortunately. I keep hope alive thinking that it is only divisive because it is an election year.

I seriously do not think we are going to come out of this ordeal if we don't let the flu run its course so-to-speak. That doesn't mean we should just full blown open up and forget it existed, but I don't think it means we should just stay home and worry every time we venture out and come in contact with other humans. I think people need to be smart with their choices and assess their own risk tolerance. If players don't want to play this year, I suspect the colleges would allow them to sit out with no penalty. Let those that want to play, play. That seems logical, but I doubt it would work as those that wanted to play would probably be labeled and pressured to conform to those that were against it. Someway, somehow, it will be turned into a political decision...probably within 30 seconds.

What are we going to do if we have only limited immunity after infection and it becomes like a Cold virus that we can get at anytime, anywhere each year or every 4 - 6 months? Just hibernate and quit life or simply wait for a virus vaccine that is full proof?

Again, I get your opinions, I respect your opinions, but I can't quite agree with the logic fully.

And for the record, I am probably not in the highest risk category at age 50 and relatively good health...so, I recognize that may bias my opinion a bit...even though I only see my opinion as logical.

Have a good day.

You're right, Covid-19 isn't as deadly across the board as the Spanish Flu was, but that doesn't mean it should be taken lightly. What I'm saying is, we're doing the exact same thing now, as we did back then. Things opened up for the summer and by the time fall came, the number of cases and deaths skyrocketed. The only difference is that there isn't a bunch of soldiers coming home from overseas.

While Covid isn't as deadly to people my age (30s) and younger, there are still cases of people in this age group dying from it. Some perfectly healthy. There is no guarantee that any age group won't die from it if they get it.

I'm not saying we should all stay home and cower in fear but is it any surprise that New Zealand, who hasn't had a new case in weeks now made everybody stay home for the last 4 months? If people went out, they were required to wear a mask and it wasn't up for discussion. The people there did it because they understood that it was what was best not just for them, but for everyone. I don't get the feeling that's the case here in the United States. Kudos to Europe for not allowing Americans to travel there.

Don't take this as me saying I don't want there to be football season. I want there to be a season just as much as the next person but there is a very real possibility that come this fall when the season starts, entire teams or most of a team's players have it. Whether they are showing symptoms or not, they shouldn't play if they have it. Of course that may not happen, but if it does, it won't really matter if there is a season or not because nobody could play anyway. So I say, go forward with the season and see how many teams can actually field a team when the time comes.

 

[Kwajsker]

I appreciate that you state you are not intending to be combative, but if you really can't grasp how the liability of hosting a venue in Memorial Stadium differs from that of people demonstrating in an open street, then you'll likely struggle mightly to understand if the Big Ten announces no fall sports.

fwiw- I've worked in a clinical lab for over 30 years, so I apologize if I used the term 'petri dish' to liken a virus spread to that of bacterial spread. It wasn't intended to be taken literally, but I must say your pictorial rant did give me a chuckle and reminded me how truly lacking some of the public is in their understanding of what is taking place with the current Covid crisis. I should choose my words more cautiously. Point taken.

That dang liability! Uggh. Your make a good point, though.

Glad I am not the one having to make the decisions.

 

[Huskerwisdom]

Thank you for your thoughtful response. My search revealed different results, articles right at the top of my search are below and worth reading.

American Heart Association | To be a relentless force for a world of longer, healthier lives

Learn more about the American Heart Association's efforts to reduce death caused by heart disease and stroke. Also learn about cardiovascular conditions, ECC and CPR, donating, heart disease information for healthcare professionals, caregivers, and educators and healthy living.

healthmetrics.heart.org

View attachment 46798

Comparing seasonal influenza (flu) mortality to the mortality rate of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) is a threat to public health and demonstrates the lack of understanding about how the data is collected for each infection by varying agencies, according to a Viewpoint published in JAMA Internal Medicine.


By the numbers, according to the paper:

• There were 15,455 COVID-19 deaths reported in the US during the week ending April 21, 2020.
• There were 14,478 COVID-19 deaths reported in the US during the week prior.
• There were 351 flu deaths during the peak week (week 11 of 2016) of the flu season in 2015-16.
• There were 1626 flu deaths during the peak week (week 3 of 2018) of the flu season in 2018-19.

“These statistics on counted deaths suggest that the number of COVID-19 deaths for the week ending April 21 was 9.5-fold to 44.1-fold greater than the peak week of counted influenza deaths during the past 7 influenza seasons in the US, with a 20.5-fold mean increase,” the authors wrote.

The CDC also recognizes that their COVID-19 death counts are continually revised due to delays in reporting. The authors believed that the ratio of counted COVID-19 deaths to flu deaths will rise. Additionally, they said their ratios are more clinically consistent with the experiences of health care workers on the front lines.

“We infer that either the CDC’s annual estimates substantially overstate the actual number of deaths caused by influenza or that the current number of COVID-19 counted deaths substantially understates the actual number of deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2, or both,” they wrote.


“Although officials may say that SARS-CoV-2 is ‘just another flu,’ this is not true,” the authors concluded. “Our analysis suggests that comparisons between SARS-CoV-2 mortality and seasonal influenza mortality must be made using an apples-to-apples comparison, not an apples-to-oranges comparison. Doing so better demonstrates the true threat to public health from COVID-19.”

Why Comparing Flu and COVID-19 Severity Is Not Equivalent

Experts argue that though public officials may liken coronavirus to "just another flu," the true numbers show a stark difference.

www.contagionlive.com

1. The original question I answered was your question "Who wants to be the coach of a kid who dies? "
2. In regards to a "kid" Covid is much less dangerous than the flu, the data I posted and the data from virtually EVERY COUNTRY in the world supports what I said and posted

One of the huge problems we have had is in not making policy based on the way in which risk is affected by age during this outbreak. As it is, 50% of the deaths will almost certainly be people in nursing homes (and the number's likely higher, but NY and other states are making it difficult to see how many nursing home residents actually died).

Why is that important? Because nursing home residents make up less than 0.5% of the population and are making up 50% of the deaths. The risk related to covid goes up rapidly after age 50 and almost exponentially after 70. Median age of death is over 80 in many states and some states have had more people over 100 die than under 45 (I'll give you some guesses on how many people make up each of those populations in the state of Pennsylvania, for instance)

Back to the original question of kids, though. It's not dangerous at all, and is much less dangerous than the flu for anyone of college age and younger (as shown clearly by the numbers I posted and the numbers that are readily available).

As for older people, It's dangerous, but how dangerous is a discussion for elsewhere as this is focused on whether or not there is a danger to kids playing football (or going to school)