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Driving Distances to Top 50 MSAs, 500 mile radius Population for Big Ten Members

D

dwc13

Recruit
2 Year Member
I put together the table below to break down the following: (1) driving distances (per Google) for Big Ten members to the Top 50 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs); and, (2) estimated population within a 500 mile radius of the city where each Big Ten campus is located. Most Nebraska football fans already know recruiting is not a level playing field, especially when it comes to population and geography. However, I wanted to try and quantify the disparity, at least at a high level. Putting this together was an iterative process and took a lot of iterations -- so I hope you find this interesting and somewhat informative.

First, few items:

1. 2019 population data was used. It is the most recent data currently available.

2. There are 372 MSAs defined by the US Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The 2019 estimated population of the top 50 MSAs account for @55% of the 2019 estimated US population (328.2M), per the US Census Bureau.

3. The 2019 population estimates within a 500 mile radius for each Big Ten member city was compiled by StatsAmerica, a service of Indiana Business Research Center at Indiana University's Kelley School of Business (funded in part by U.S. Commerce Department Economic Development Administration). Keep in mind total population figures are negatively affected by the presence of large bodies of water and foreign countries within the 500 mile radius.

4. Data for Nebraska is in Column L.

5. Row 61 applies to the Top 25 MSAs only. Per cell C61, there are 3 Top 25 MSAs within 500 miles of Lincoln, NE: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, and St. Louis (MO & IL). Note the yellow highlighted cells.

6. Row 62 includes totals from the Top 50 MSAs that satisfied the criteria. Per cell C62, there are 5 Top 50 MSAs within 500 miles of Lincoln, NE: In addition to the 3 above, add Kansas City (MO & KS) and Oklahoma City. Note the yellow highlighted cells.

7. The "Big Four" states that produce the largest share of recruits are Florida, Texas, California and Georgia. These 4 states are far and away the leaders in top HS football talent. North Carolina, Louisiana and Ohio comprise the next tier, but those 3 states are way behind the Big Four. Hence, I have singled out driving distances to Top 50 MSAs that are in Big Four states in Rows 67-69. Overall, SEC, Big XII, ACC and Pac 12 programs have a clear advantage in terms of proximity to Big Four talent.

8. Finally, for perspective, I have also included Colorado and Utah. If you think Nebraska has it tough, think again.

Big Ten Mileage Rev1 - Copy.JPG
 
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WOW! To me...clearly justifies Nebraska’s Recruiting budget which is IMHO:

1. already too small for the task at hand
2. ABSOLUTELY needs to get bigger now that a whole new world of the Transfer Portal has descended on us and we need a department that monitors and mines that portal in order to survive...as well as “vet” prospects better
3. We spend literally half what schools like Alabama, Clemson, Georgia spend
4. And we are not talking THAT much money! $1.5 Million allows for a new Transfer Portal department and a whole lot more “vetting” and puts us on par with top teams.

For a school as financially stable as our...which is planning on dropping $155 mil for a “new facility“....

I think we can afford it....
 
johnrr6 said:
WOW! To me...clearly justifies Nebraska’s Recruiting budget which is IMHO:

1. already too small for the task at hand
2. ABSOLUTELY needs to get bigger now that a whole new world of the Transfer Portal has descended on us and we need a department that monitors and mines that portal in order to survive...as well as “vet” prospects better
3. We spend literally half what schools like Alabama, Clemson, Georgia spend
4. And we are not talking THAT much money! $1.5 Million allows for a new Transfer Portal department and a whole lot more “vetting” and puts us on par with top teams.

For a school as financially stable as our...which is planning on dropping $155 mil for a “new facility“....

I think we can afford it....
Click to expand...
Probably in the future but not so much right now. We got hit hard with financial losses from the pandemic. That’s going to take a few years of recovery or some donors digging deeper into their pockets.
 




RedSaidTed said:
Probably in the future but not so much right now.
Click to expand...
In my mind it’s priorities....

Slip the facilities time line a bit...delay it 6 months or so....

Or totally fund immediate needs now....

Or even better......as you suggest....My guess is that with the proper preparation and pitch to “boosters”...an additional $1.5 mil could be found in a heartbeat.

This idea that we are just going to recruit “better” using the existing budget and given a new additional need from this new fangled “transfer portal” and a more complex world....

Just seems ludicrous.

Reminds me of all the times in the Army I got told to do more with what I had...or even less...

pissed me off and almost always failed...surprise, surprise....
 
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Awesome analysis... are you a descendent of rojo? ;)

I'm curious if the state population factors into this?... just don't understand how colorado (population ~5.7M) wouldn't show in cell Z71 total
 
coherbie said:
Awesome analysis... are you a descendent of rojo? ;)

I'm curious if the state population factors into this?... just don't understand how colorado (population ~5.7M) wouldn't show in cell Z71 total
Click to expand...

Good question. Rows 71 & 72 represent the total population of in-range MSAs only. They are *not* total state population figures, but rather clusters of population grouped by OMB based upon geography and demographics. In other words, how many large population centers are "in-range" (500 miles selected) of the city where the university is located.

Row 71 is for the Top 25 MSAs only. For University of Colorado, the population of any Top 25 MSA within 500 miles of Boulder, CO, will be totaled in Cell Z71. If you look at cells Z6:Z30, there is only one (1) such MSA: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood (Cell Z24, highlighted in yellow). If you look at cell G24, you'll see the population of the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood MSA is 2,967,239, which is the total represented by cell Z71.

Row 72 is similar to Row 71 but it includes the Top 50 MSAs. For University of Colorado, the population of any Top 50 MSA within 500 miles of Boulder, CO, will be totaled in cell Z72. If you look at cells Z6:Z55, there is still only one such yellow highlighted MSA: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood. So the total in cell Z72 is also 2,967,239.

To the extent the entire state falls within the 500 mile radius of the city in question, the state population is fully accounted for in the Big Radius Tool data in Rows 74 & 75. Such is the case of Colorado -- a 500 mile radius from Boulder, CO, will include the entire population of the state. Cell Z74 has a value of 17.86M, which includes the 2019 estimated state population of 5.76M. Obviously, a 500 mile radius will likely also include population from neighboring states. For a big state like Texas, California, Florida or Montana, the entire state might not be covered by a 500 mile radius in some instances (e.g., Miami, FL; College Station, TX), so a (small) portion of the state's population might not be included. Most of the time, though, 100% of the home state's population falls within a 500 mile radius of the city where the university is located. All other things being equal, there should be more (though not necessarily better overall, which can vary year-over-year) HS football prospects in a region with 52.5M people (Nebraska) compared with a region with 17.9M people (Colorado).

It's no secret recruiting is easier when the population base within 500 miles is larger (w/r/t other conference football programs), and that requires bigger MSAs and more of them. Things are even better from a recruiting standpoint when that 500 mile radius from campus also includes an MSA(s) in one or more of the Big Four states (Fl, TX, CA, GA). Of course, the coaching staff still has to make accurate assessments on who to recruit and land those recruits in manageable roster numbers, and then develop them.
 
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johnrr6 said:
WOW! To me...clearly justifies Nebraska’s Recruiting budget which is IMHO:

1. already too small for the task at hand
2. ABSOLUTELY needs to get bigger now that a whole new world of the Transfer Portal has descended on us and we need a department that monitors and mines that portal in order to survive...as well as “vet” prospects better
3. We spend literally half what schools like Alabama, Clemson, Georgia spend
4. And we are not talking THAT much money! $1.5 Million allows for a new Transfer Portal department and a whole lot more “vetting” and puts us on par with top teams.

For a school as financially stable as our...which is planning on dropping $155 mil for a “new facility“....

I think we can afford it....
Click to expand...

So Bill Moos should be expecting a big check from you? :Biggrin:
 



Good analysis!

If someone could find that article that showed we went the furthest distance per recruit that was done a few years ago I would be ecstatic. Was like 700 miles per commit or something insane like that.
 
True or False....Lincoln is the 2nd largest campus city in the B1G west?
 
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Chicago(Evanston), Twin Cities, and Madison all bigger.
 
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