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[redroy]

Put this together to help fill in during this doldrum period. A little excitement during the draft but overall not much else happening. I had created this graph before but needed to update it for the 2011 season. As usual, no big revelations or counter intuitive observations, just puts a lot of info into a visual.

The most noticeable item from last season is Michigan's ~20 point rise in Hoke's first season. This is just about the opposite of RichRod's ~20 point drop his first season. UM is probably feeling confident right now, 10-2, BCS win, solid recruiting class, returning 3 year starter @ QB, etc. I'm sure they will be the pundit's preseason pick to win the Legends. I will be in the stands Oct 27 with my Michigan football buddy. Some payback would be nice.

The second item is probably what will happen with MSU and NU. Can MSU continue their improvement under Dantonio, repeat last year's success. I would think most expect a drop, losing Cousins and a few other key players. They were a solid team last year. Nebraska's win against them look's even better in hindsight.

Nebraska is kind of the wild card. We are going to be competitive but how much. Can they have that season we are all looking for.

If Northwestern follows their recent pattern, they will have a down season.

 

[ThotDoc]

That's a pretty graph RedRoy.

Pretty significant increases for both Mich and MSU.

 

[redroy]

That's a pretty graph RedRoy.

Pretty significant increases for both Mich and MSU.

thx - hopefully informative also

 

[Greatest Fan of All]

View attachment 2985


Put this together to help fill in during this doldrum period. A little excitement during the draft but overall not much else happening. I had created this graph before but needed to update it for the 2011 season. As usual, no big revelations or counter intuitive observations, just puts a lot of info into a visual.

The most noticeable item from last season is Michigan's ~20 point rise in Hoke's first season. This is just about the opposite of RichRod's ~20 point drop his first season. UM is probably feeling confident right now, 10-2, BCS win, solid recruiting class, returning 3 year starter @ QB, etc. I'm sure they will be the pundit's preseason pick to win the Legends. I will be in the stands Oct 27 with my Michigan football buddy. Some payback would be nice.

The second item is probably what will happen with MSU and NU. Can MSU continue their improvement under Dantonio, repeat last year's success. I would think most expect a drop, losing Cousins and a few other key players. They were a solid team last year. Nebraska's win against them look's even better in hindsight.

Nebraska is kind of the wild card. We are going to be competitive but how much. Can they have that season we are all looking for.

If Northwestern follows their recent pattern, they will have a down season.

What is the data used for your calculations? Is it predictive? If so, what does it show for 2012? Your chart seems to show we've been flat the past three seasons after a modest improvement from the most horrible season ever.

 

[redroy]

What is the data used for your calculations? Is it predictive? If so, what does it show for 2012? Your chart seems to show we've been flat the past three seasons after a modest improvement from the most horrible season ever.

GFOA - Approximates the Sagarin Predictor broken down into a per game basis. The squiggly line is a 10 game moving average. Although it uses what Sagarin calls his predictive index, the information presented in this graph is historical not predictive. Kind of like the stock market disclaimer - "past performance is not indicative of future earnings." It shows where you've been.

However, during the course of a season, Sagarin suggests: "To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points over a HOME team having a rating of 79."
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm

I use the Sagarin info to provide more info than just a single end of season number. Like this graph.

 

[Greatest Fan of All]

Wow. a regression analysis from the end of 2003 through the end of 2011 would seem to show us as flat (and far below previous heights) for the eight year period.

 

[redroy]

Wow. a regression analysis from the end of 2003 through the end of 2011 would seem to show us as flat (and far below previous heights) for the eight year period.

Moreso if you include the 2002 & 2003 season. Callahan's 2004 & 2007 seasons being the low points. Not much deviation if you throw those out.

I like to look at it as Pelini made progress his first 3 seasons and then stumbled a bit (stayed the same) last year. To make a noticeable improvement they just need to average about 7 more margin of victory points more per game, which in the simplest term is either scoring an additional touchdown or holding your oppoenent to 1 less touchdown (again on average). Because there is a diminishing return on blow out wins or losses, in the losses to Michigan and Wisconin (for example) they would have to close the margin of loss let's say 14 points. Which during the course of the game was doable and still would have resulted in a loss, but with a little less embarrassment.

Thus, one of the keys for me is to see the team 1) eliminate the blow out losses, and 2) tack on another 7 mov (on average), whether that is the result of better offense, defense, more takeaways, less turnovers, less penalties, all of hte above, etc.. Kind of obvious list of wants but trying to put it in terms of showing improve in this metric/format.