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A look at Frost's nine wins in two years

B

Beareye

Travel Squad
5 Year Member
2018
- Minnesota (7-6): A very average team that was very young and down to 2nd/3rd string QBs. They finished the season strong after firing an ineffective Defensive Coordinator.
- Bethune Cookman (7-5, FCS): An over-matched FBS team scheduled on short notice.
- Illinois (4-8): The second-worst team in the conference. Not a good team. One-dimensional offense led by a former N?U castoff at QB.
- Michigan State (7-6): This team had a great defense and a horrible offense. They were down to their backup QB, who just wasn't very good. Three fourth-quarter FGs ended up being enough to win.

2019
-- South Alabama (2-10): Finished in last place in the SunBelt. We put up 35 points against them, but only 14 were scored by the offense.
-- Northern Illinois (5-7): Finished the season playing pretty well after a terrible start with their new head coach. A middle-of-pack MAC team.
-- Illinois (6-6): Thank goodness we played them when they did, before they upset Wisconsin and gained some confidence. If I remember correctly, they were coming off of a loss to Eastern Michigan.
-- Northwestern (3-9): The second-worst or maybe third-worst team in the conference. They had a fairly salty defense, but an absolutely awful offense. They were missing several starters, including their top 2 QBs, top RB, and top WR. We needed a late interception and a last-second FG to beat them in Lincoln.
-- Maryland (3-9): Okay, this was probably the second-worst team in the conference. This team looked like it had quit late in the season, much like 2007 Nebraska and 2017 Nebraska.

So there you have it. It's not just that Frost lacks a signature win, but he hasn't even beaten a good team. Our "best" wins in two years are 2018 Minnesota, 2018 Michigan State, and 2019 Illinois. The moral here is that we have only beaten conference teams that are really bad (or, on occasion, very average) and non-conference teams that are completely over-matched.

Looking at this in some detail is very sobering. It doesn't suggest that we are close to any sort of turn-around. I didn't think I could feel worse about Frost's 9-15 start here, but now I do.

If this pattern holds up, then who do we beat in 2020? Probably Central Michigan and Rutgers. Possibly Purdue, South Dakota State, Illinois, and Northwestern... but probably not all four of them.
 

Beareye said:
If this pattern holds up, then who do we beat in 2020? Probably Central Michigan and Rutgers. Possibly Purdue, South Dakota State, Illinois, and Northwestern... but probably not all four of them.
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Why probably Central Michigan? CMU is 8-4, will be playing for the MAC Championship, and beat Northern Illinois 48-10 just three weeks ago.

Rutgers isn't a probably. They are a definitely. ;)
 
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Beareye said:
2018
- Minnesota (7-6): A very average team that was very young and down to 2nd/3rd string QBs. They finished the season strong after firing an ineffective Defensive Coordinator.
- Bethune Cookman (7-5, FCS): An over-matched FBS team scheduled on short notice.
- Illinois (4-8): The second-worst team in the conference. Not a good team. One-dimensional offense led by a former N?U castoff at QB.
- Michigan State (7-6): This team had a great defense and a horrible offense. They were down to their backup QB, who just wasn't very good. Three fourth-quarter FGs ended up being enough to win.

2019
-- South Alabama (2-10): Finished in last place in the SunBelt. We put up 35 points against them, but only 14 were scored by the offense.
-- Northern Illinois (5-7): Finished the season playing pretty well after a terrible start with their new head coach. A middle-of-pack MAC team.
-- Illinois (6-6): Thank goodness we played them when they did, before they upset Wisconsin and gained some confidence. If I remember correctly, they were coming off of a loss to Eastern Michigan.
-- Northwestern (3-9): The second-worst or maybe third-worst team in the conference. They had a fairly salty defense, but an absolutely awful offense. They were missing several starters, including their top 2 QBs, top RB, and top WR. We needed a late interception and a last-second FG to beat them in Lincoln.
-- Maryland (3-9): Okay, this was probably the second-worst team in the conference. This team looked like it had quit late in the season, much like 2007 Nebraska and 2017 Nebraska.

So there you have it. It's not just that Frost lacks a signature win, but he hasn't even beaten a good team. Our "best" wins in two years are 2018 Minnesota, 2018 Michigan State, and 2019 Illinois. The moral here is that we have only beaten conference teams that are really bad (or, on occasion, very averyouage) and non-conference teams that are completely over-matched.

Looking at this in some detail is very sobering. It doesn't suggest that we are close to any sort of turn-around. I didn't think I could feel worse about Frost's 9-15 start here, but now I do.

If this pattern holds up, then who do we beat in 2020? Probably Central Michigan and Rutgers. Possibly Purdue, South Dakota State, Illinois, and Northwestern... but probably not all four of them.
Click to expand...

You're welcome to feel like you want to about the team, but I think they're in a better place than you do.

You look at how close this team was to winning more games both years and that should give you a better feeling for how close they are. Four more wins on the table for 2018 (Colorado, Troy, Northwestern and Iowa) and four more for 2019 (Colorado, Indiana, Purdue and Iowa) and Frost's record is 17-7 and we're not having this conversation, but arguing about style points. If you're looking for dominance, sure, we're years away. Winning football isn't that far off.

You're welcome.
 
It’s encouraging to me that even with how terrible we’ve been, we were within a touchdown in 9 losses. If we get a few things figured out, suddenly we‘ll be winning a lot more games. We’re basically in shambles right now but only barely losing to Iowa. When the first batch of walk-ons become upperclassmen and we get a properly filled out roster, we’re going to be good.

Having patience is the hard part. I just want it now! But it’ll be another year or two to straighten things out.
 



If HCSF needs years he is not even close too the HCBP level. I doubt the Husker nation will tolerate two more years of feeble play. The product is really bad. This team looks like a Kansas or Baylor of our dominate days. HCSF needs help and if will not admit he needs help I doubt that he finishes year 4 as the head coach,
 
jreb14 said:
If HCSF needs years he is not even close too the HCBP level. I doubt the Husker nation will tolerate two more years of feeble play. The product is really bad. This team looks like a Kansas or Baylor of our dominate days. HCSF needs help and if will not admit he needs help I doubt that he finishes year 4 as the head coach,
Click to expand...

You should volunteer. I'm sure he'd love to hear your thoughts regarding his failings calling and adjusting an RPO offense.
 
jreb14 said:
If HCSF needs years he is not even close too the HCBP level. I doubt the Husker nation will tolerate two more years of feeble play. The product is really bad. This team looks like a Kansas or Baylor of our dominate days. HCSF needs help and if will not admit he needs help I doubt that he finishes year 4 as the head coach,
Click to expand...

Maybe Frost has been playing the long con this entire time. He remembers the boos and what was written in ‘96 and now he’s returned to have his revenge. I have a feeling that Bo Pelini is also involved. Will report back when more evidence emerges.
 
CornhuskerinWI said:
Maybe Frost has been playing the long con this entire time. He remembers the boos and what was written in ‘96 and now he’s returned to have his revenge. I have a feeling that Bo Pelini is also involved. Will report back when more evidence emerges.
Click to expand...
Perlman is rubbing his hands trogether in glee!
 
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CrabHusker said:
You're welcome to feel like you want to about the team, but I think they're in a better place than you do.

You look at how close this team was to winning more games both years and that should give you a better feeling for how close they are. Four more wins on the table for 2018 (Colorado, Troy, Northwestern and Iowa) and four more for 2019 (Colorado, Indiana, Purdue and Iowa) and Frost's record is 17-7 and we're not having this conversation, but arguing about style points. If you're looking for dominance, sure, we're years away. Winning football isn't that far off.

You're welcome.
Click to expand...

I sincerely hope you are right.

The problem with the close games the last few years is that we lose 75% of them. I think we are 3-9 in one possession games. Maybe it's just bad luck and it will even out in due time. I tend to think it has more to do with lack of killer instinct and being outcoached.
 
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Beareye said:
I sincerely hope you are right.

The problem with the close games the last few years is that we lose 75% of them. I think we are 3-9 in one possession games. Maybe it's just bad luck and it will even out in due time. I tend to think it has more to do with lack of killer instinct and being outcoached.
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I don't believe in luck, so that's not part of my thought process. My point is that even WITH the bad choices by the staff, bone head plays by the players, lapses in judgement by both, etc. we're one score away from eight more wins over two years. Hell, improve 50% on special teams and we add a win or two this year alone. Close one more drive out with points and we win a couple more. We're not playing that terrible 1980's version of Rice football. I think folks confuse winning football games with playing the kind of football we did in the mid '90's which was special.
 



Beareye said:
Rutgers just hired Schiano, so they won't be a complete joke for much longer. Hopefully we can still get them next season before they turn into a respectable team.
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I saw that today. He once had Rutgers playing as well as they ever had. We'll see if he can do it again. Odds are they'll be better next season than this season, but quite a ways to go to be good.
 
CrabHusker said:
I don't believe in luck, so that's not part of my thought process. My point is that even WITH the bad choices by the staff, bone head plays by the players, lapses in judgement by both, etc. we're one score away from eight more wins over two years. Hell, improve 50% on special teams and we add a win or two this year alone. Close one more drive out with points and we win a couple more. We're not playing that terrible 1980's version of Rice football. I think folks confuse winning football games with playing the kind of football we did in the mid '90's which was special.
Click to expand...

I'm completely certain Riley's first year didn't have as much defense as this, when every loss was 10 points or less, 4 were 3 points or less, the average margin of defeat for the losses that season was 4 points, and the first four losses all came either in the last play of the game or the last 10 seconds of the game. Talk about a team that was snakebit and "coulda had" 10 wins in 2015 based on your approach. Then, of course, Riley had 9 wins in 2016 -- and there was still more hate spewed at him than Frost is receiving currently.

Anyhow, you gave the positive spin, which is fine. But the flip side is that we were one wounded duck miracle FG away from OT with a horrible Northwestern team, and it took a late score against Illinois to win by 4. We could have had 8 wins this season, or we could have had 2. Obviously, when you have more losses, you have more opportunities for them to "coulda been a win" than the fewer total of wins that "coulda been losses." Reality is, we were 5-7 in 2019 and 4-8 in 2018 -- and it didn't feel like we were better than the record indicated. There is no doubt it was a subpar product that produced subpar results. The record fits the quality of play on the field.

There was a whole lot of "this is why Riley sucks" used from his first game to his last in Lincoln that is now used as a pardon for Frost.
 
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