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The collapse of 2019: Was it sudden? Or was it destined?


I agree with some of your points on here, others I dont.
did you just make this thread so everyone would bow down and say oh wow Lars the Red was right all along, lets pat him on the back and tell him hes great.
You were right on some things, good for you!!

If I was right, I guess that means you were wrong. The point was, as easy as it is to get excited by wins, we need to focus on how we win, if we are going to achieve the things we as fans are hoping for. If we by some miracle get hot, and an opponent is not, it doesn’t mean we should stop looking at the things we did wrong.

As for why I wrote it, as a fan I hope to share what I saw as some systemic issues that may not have been obvious to all. Your overview isn’t bad at all, but no one was complaining about Copeland and JPJ’s contributions when we were winning games with them scoring 20 each. No one complains that we don’t have an offense to speak of, when we score well and win.

Again, I agree with your take on who we lost from last year for the most part, and think I mentioned either pre season or early season that we might miss Taylor more than anyone. He wasn’t blessed with great shooting skill, but his understanding of the game, and defensive strength weren’t being filled by anyone. Tanner wasn’t as physically talented as Jordy, but his effort and attitude were a big improvement. In Tanner’s defense, I also don’t think Miles ever told guys to feed TB, which he definitely did for Jordy.
 
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We have seen our share of opinions as to why the Huskers seemed to collapse after a truly great start to the season. The reasons vary from the loss of Copeland or Harris, to elimination of an outside consultant who was working with the team, and even because of what amounts to a prolonged shooting slump. While there is no denying we started off pretty well, I'd suggest we look a little more carefully at signs very early on that the shortfalls of our program the last several years, were still deeply embedded in the team.

I just want to clear the air and say, without a doubt, we had some pretty good wins early in the year...at least at first glance. There were definitely some dogs on that schedule, and frankly ones we should have really focused on getting some of our bench time with the starters, not as an entirely different 5 guys, but that's another topic. But you have to give credit where credit is due, and those guys got some solid wins in some tough situations. Let's breakdown those wins we feel were the most meaningful:

-Clemson, a good ACC team, with a 19-12 record, but currently sitting at 9th in the conference, and no guarantee to make the tourney, but also someone people don't want to face in their conference tourney.
-Seton Hall, another decent team, with a 18-12 record, sitting 6th in the Big East, but absolutely a down year for the conference. We were also fortunate to get this very young team, on the road, very early in the season.
-Creighton, currently 4th in the Big East with an 18-13 record, but barely over .500 a month or so ago. They are finishing the season well, with 5 wins in their last 7 games after a slow start.
-Oklahoma State, 12-19, second to last in the Big 12. Not a good team, but a name in a P5.

Our one big name loss was Texas Tech, and they are simply a really solid team. Top 10, well coached, not flashy, but they just don't make mistakes and play some darn good defense.

So, if we look back on some of the conversations in the game threads, there were things that had me concerned about the look of this team:

-First and foremost, a lack of quality shooters. There isn't a guy on the team most of us feel confident in when they pull up. And there sure as heck isn't anyone making opponents sweat. It's been a fact of life for nearly a decade.
-Miles fascination with shooting more 3s. The first time I heard Miles quoting 'the world according to KenPo', I knew we were in trouble. If the first game of 4-26 against Wayne State didn't concern you, then you weren't paying attention. Deciding you are going to focus on 3s with our shooters is like focusing on being a team that pounds the ball inside without a start over 6'8...you can say it, but it's just lip service.
-A complete lack of getting easy looks. This wasn't just because we don't pass well, but we also don't work to get our teammates open. Screens are almost nonexistent. And when we do pass, how often did you marvel at how smooth and perfect the pass, catch and shoot were?
-We didn't make defenses work. Think of what makes playing D tough; getting through screens, keeping Man/Ball relationship, teams that crash the offensive boards, those are the things that make defense hard. We did none of this. Playing against us was easy for most decent defensive teams.
-Putting the 'Alpha' label on Watson, who hadn't been able to hold up an entire season, and Palmer, who just doesn't make guys around him better, was idiotic. Copeland was a far better player when we consider his entire game, and he didn't struggle in adjusting his game when he wasn't hitting, the type of thing we expect from a leader.
-The complete mismanagement of personnel putting Roby (or Copeland) as a 5. It's one thing to use a players like those two in a manner that creates a complete mismatch, and likely gets the opponent's big man in foul trouble trying to keep up with the smaller, faster player, but Miles slaps those guys on the blocks and neutralizes any speed advantage they may have had.
-Zero effort to create a deeper bench. I thought Miles had chances to get guys rolling through the first 15 games, but was caught up in getting Palmer scoring 30 instead. It's only when we've been backed into a corner do we see Miles getting players meaningful minutes, but it's conference play, and that raises the stakes. And when you are developing depth, it's not about playing the bottom of the bench together during scrub time, it's about getting those guys minutes with the top 6 or 7. When your 10th guy can play with your top 4, you have something very special.


Every single thing I've mentioned here, are typical traits of Tim Miles teams. When I pointed them out during those first 15 games, I was being negative in some minds, I didn't give the team credit...which isn't true at all. I saw signs of some pretty intriguing play. What I was concerned about were the areas I just listed, and frankly, it wasn't a brilliant basketball mind seeing them, it's pretty basic basketball stuff.

Hey, we all get a little caught up in seeing the ESPN Highlights of one amazing individual play after another. We all dream of being Duke, Kentucky, NC, whoever, but the fact remains, out of the 68 teams playing in the tourney, only a half dozen or so do it purely on incredible talent. We need to try to be Iowa, or Wiscy, or even Creighton. That's the type of game we need to develop. I was talking some Husker Hoops with a friend who I used to play some ball with, and some guy who was listening, starts chirping in a little. He popped off that if we got rid of Miles, all we'd have is some lame coach like Collier, to which I replied, if we had Collier coaching this group, we'd be absolutely dancing in March. Barry may have sucked as a recruiter, and no, we weren't winning the B1G with a roster full of guys from Filly or Plattsmouth, but he could coach.

If we have this roster and a stronger coach, we have 20+ wins, even with the loss of Copeland. We have the type of players that would be a total pain to play, if we did the little things good teams do. Think of what Syracuse was like a few years ago: couldn't shoot a lick, but they were LONG, great defensively, rebounded like madmen, and created mismatches on offense for easy buckets, which were predominantly dunks or two footers. Good team, good coaches all adapt.

Let's be happy we got a nice win for the seniors, and let's hope we keep these guys on the current roster around for at least another year, and let's see what we can do with someone who is a true, deep down, teacher of basketball. Tomorrow is the last game of the season, and I hope it's the beginning some new energy and opportunity for Nebraska Basketball.
Lars the Red, you were right all along!

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If I was right, I guess that means you were wrong. The point was, as easy as it is to get excited by wins, we need to focus on how we win if we are going to achieve the things we as fans are hoping for. If we by some miracle get hot, and an opponent is not, it doesn’t mean we should stop looking at the things we did wrong.

As for why I wrote it, as a fan I hope to share what I saw as some systematic issues that may not have been obvious to all. Your overview isn’t bad at all, but no one was complaining about Copeland and JPJ’s contributions when we were winning games with them scoring 20 each. No one complains when we score well and win that we don’t have an offense to speak of.

Again, I agree with your take on who we lost from last year for the most part, and think I mentioned either pre season or early season that we might miss Taylor more than anyone. He wasn’t blessed with great shooting skill, but his understanding of the game, and defensive strength weren’t being filled by anyone. Tanner wasn’t as physically talented as Jordy, but his effort and attitude were a big improvement. In Tanner’s defense, I also don’t think Miles ever told guys to feed TB, which he definitely did for Jordy.

Evan Taylor was tough as schitt. Seemed like every time the team was up against a wall, his defensive intensity would go up. He always made an effort play that sparked something.

Even when this team was clicking, if they played a team of 5 of those kinds of players, they would back down physically. This team needed some toughness.

The lack of player development and in game coaching were huge reasons why Miles couldn’t get it done here.

The biggest reason though, in my opinion, is no identity. What was Miles trying to recruit to? I think he tried to get the best athlete and players he could and then design a system around them each year. That doesn’t work unless you are an elite coach. If you want an offense in which lengthy wings slash to the cup on dribble-drive motion, that’s fine, but you better go get yourself a few bigs who can stroke it from the corners. When Pitchford and Copeland were stroking, Nebraska was at its best in the Miles era. Get those bigs hitting threes than everything opens up and guys like Palmer and Petteway are virtually unstoppable (which both of them made all-Big 10). But Miles couldn’t get quality bigs here, so he took non-shooters like Jacobson, Morrow, and Jordy because they were the best available. All they did is clog up the lane and our really good slashers offensive efficiency would just plummet.

Have a system, have an identity, and recruit to it. Miles didn’t do that well and that was his biggest fault. It affects players being unhappy in roles, it affects team chemistry, and it affects player development.
 



I think much of the fan base's early optimism was due to a belief that all returning players would be better than last year. As has been mentioned several times, there was just never any player development. Early on, Coach Miles let JPJ do whatever he wanted trying to get him to the NBA. Palmer was getting on Sportscenter and there was early All-American talk. If you really watched the games, you knew he wouldn't put up those numbers against better competition.

Hopefully, the next coach will have a philosophy and build a program that way. Don't try to accelerate your success at the expense of long-term gain. Recruit a complete roster. A mixture of skills and body types. We'll know Coach Miles fate soon enough, then on to the future!!
 
Evan Taylor was tough as schitt. Seemed like every time the team was up against a wall, his defensive intensity would go up. He always made an effort play that sparked something.

Even when this team was clicking, if they played a team of 5 of those kinds of players, they would back down physically. This team needed some toughness.

The lack of player development and in game coaching were huge reasons why Miles couldn’t get it done here.

The biggest reason though, in my opinion, is no identity. What was Miles trying to recruit to? I think he tried to get the best athlete and players he could and then design a system around them each year. That doesn’t work unless you are an elite coach. If you want an offense in which lengthy wings slash to the cup on dribble-drive motion, that’s fine, but you better go get yourself a few bigs who can stroke it from the corners. When Pitchford and Copeland were stroking, Nebraska was at its best in the Miles era. Get those bigs hitting threes than everything opens up and guys like Palmer and Petteway are virtually unstoppable (which both of them made all-Big 10). But Miles couldn’t get quality bigs here, so he took non-shooters like Jacobson, Morrow, and Jordy because they were the best available. All they did is clog up the lane and our really good slashers offensive efficiency would just plummet.

Have a system, have an identity, and recruit to it. Miles didn’t do that well and that was his biggest fault. It affects players being unhappy in roles, it affects team chemistry, and it affects player development.

To your point about identity, and what was Miles recruiting to, its kind of an odd mix. I’m just generalizing, but it’s rare you get a player who is a great slasher AND a great 3 point shooter. Rare, yet that’s exactly what Miles seemed to be dreaming of creating. The sad part is if you can shoot 3s at least reasonably well, it really will open up the opportunities to drive. That in itself should have been reason enough to create an offense that got more clean looks for shooters who aren't always brimming with confidence.

And while I know they aren't identical players, Jacobson has better stats than Roby, and his mid-range jumper was a solid weapon. The thing about slashers, is good ones know when the space is going to be there. A good offense that's designed for for guys to drive, also clears the big guys and may even use them for a back screens on the ball or on a weakside player. When you have guys who really aren't known for their court awareness (Palmer & Watson), who generally barrel into the lane with little rhyme or reason, it's all but impossible for teammates to not hinder their progress, much less help them with screens.

I really don't know what Miles wanted, and I'm also a little confused what some of our fans want to continually complain about the lack of a 'quality big man'. Would you, as a big man, ever want to play in the offense you see Miles run if you have any offensive talent? You aren't getting fed, you aren't getting shots, and apparently your job is to try to stay out of the way unless there is a potential rebound. Wow, who would want to do that for 4 years?
 
And of course, I question player development under Miles. I do agree that Roby has a ton of raw talent, that we sometimes are blessed with seeing.

Nebraska, this season, really did have what has become a rare combination in college basketball -- talent and experience. That's typically how the non-basketball powers suddenly show up and make some noise in the postseason. They manage to get just enough of that second-tier talent (very good players -- but not the one-and-done, quick-stop-then-NBA types) that developed together over multiple years. It pains me whenever I ponder how much of an opportunity was wasted.
Second tier talent can be just what the doctor ordered if you have a system that maximizes those talents. When you get those guys bangin' on all cylinders, after working together 2, 3, 4 years, and knowing who is going to be where, and how they want that pass, and the best spot to go to for a possible rebound, good things can happen year in and year out.

And I agree with you about not needing to have one and done studs. You don't have to be the most gifted when you are playing smarter. You don't have to be Steph Curry to put fear in an opponent. If you have the ball come to you at the right time, and you are coming off a good screen, getting a good look, you can be deadly. Look, you may not like him, but when a 6' 170 lb, white kid from Marion Iowa, can put the fear into teams because they know if he gets a look, he's good, that's what a good system, and playing good team ball can do. He doesn't break ankles off the dribble, he comes off 3 screens to get a look.
 
I'm not sure if we would be dancing had he not gone down.

See, this is where I am torn with regard to any dagger in Nebraska's chances to make the Tourny. I've stated in these threads more than once that Cope is my favorite player on this team, and there are a few reasons for that. As such, I am inclined to sat that having Copeland in the lineup would absolutely make the difference, even though Nebraska was showing signs of problems before he went down.

I do tend to agree with your comment though, HWM, because I'm not sure we were ever truly shown what Copeland could/would/should do in this offense ... it's been JPJ from the onset, with 4 guys essentially standing in witness of what JPJ could create off the dribble.
 




Easy to obsess on the post mortem. Much rather hear from the experts on the path forward. Who? How much? When? Realistic expectations?
 
Easy to obsess on the post mortem. Much rather hear from the experts on the path forward. Who? How much? When? Realistic expectations?

Who? Someone who runs a unique offensive and/or defensive system to make up for the lack of recruiting base and cache NU has
How much? I don't think you have to break the bank on the next hire. You also don't have to purposely go cheap
When? As soon as the Big 10 tourney is over
Realistic expectations? no losing seasons, make the NCAA tourney 2 or 3 out of every 5 years
 
Who? Someone who runs a unique offensive and/or defensive system to make up for the lack of recruiting base and cache NU has
How much? I don't think you have to break the bank on the next hire. You also don't have to purposely go cheap
When? As soon as the Big 10 tourney is over
Realistic expectations? no losing seasons, make the NCAA tourney 2 or 3 out of every 5 years
Trust me. You HAVE to ‘break the bank’ to get or keep the guy that fulfills those wishes.
 
Trust me. You HAVE to ‘break the bank’ to get or keep the guy that fulfills those wishes.

You absolutely do not.

Buzz Williams #21 in the country $3M year
Chris Beard #28 in the country $2.8M year
Kermit Davis #41 in the country $2.5M year
Leonard Hamilton #48 in the country $2.25M year
Mick Cronin #49 in the country $2.22M year
Jim Larranaga #54 in the country $2.04M year
Mike Hopkins #56 in the country $1.9M year
Mark Few #61 in the country $1.78M year
Greg McDermott #64 in the country $1.53M year


I could go on. And I'm not saying this should be the list to go after, but these are all high quality coaches that win at a level that NU fans would be thrilled to have.
 



You absolutely do not.

Buzz Williams #21 in the country $3M year
Chris Beard #28 in the country $2.8M year
Kermit Davis #41 in the country $2.5M year
Leonard Hamilton #48 in the country $2.25M year
Mick Cronin #49 in the country $2.22M year
Jim Larranaga #54 in the country $2.04M year
Mike Hopkins #56 in the country $1.9M year
Mark Few #61 in the country $1.78M year
Greg McDermott #64 in the country $1.53M year


I could go on. And I'm not saying this should be the list to go after, but these are all high quality coaches that win at a level that NU fans would be thrilled to have.

Can’t believe he keeps arguing with you. But it’s entertaining.
 
You absolutely do not.

Buzz Williams #21 in the country $3M year
Chris Beard #28 in the country $2.8M year
Kermit Davis #41 in the country $2.5M year
Leonard Hamilton #48 in the country $2.25M year
Mick Cronin #49 in the country $2.22M year
Jim Larranaga #54 in the country $2.04M year
Mike Hopkins #56 in the country $1.9M year
Mark Few #61 in the country $1.78M year
Greg McDermott #64 in the country $1.53M year


I could go on. And I'm not saying this should be the list to go after, but these are all high quality coaches that win at a level that NU fans would be thrilled to have.
Funny, you left off the contract ‘bonus’ that can range between 500k and 1M. Not to mention if a coach has an established Nike endorsement he’s not as likely to come to start over at Adidas. He’s not coming from Gonzaga or Creighton. Trust me II, if you are lowballing then you better lower those expectations.

PS,,,Moos’ buddy Ernie Kent is available on the cheap.
 
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Funny, you left off the contract ‘bonus’ that can range between 500k and 1M. Not to mention if a coach has an established Nike endorsement he’s not as likely to come to start over at Adidas. He’s not coming from Gonzaga or Creighton. Trust me II, if you are lowballing then you better lower those expectations.

PS,,,Moos’ buddy Ernie Kent is available on the cheap.

Who said anything about lowballing? I'm talking market rate. And fyi, all but I believe the top 2 on that list are behind Tim Miles. If only Miles had in his contract that he gets 24/7 use of Navy Seals for leadership seminars.

P.S. You still sound like an entitled child
 

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