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Vegas wins over-under

I'm taking the over on NU and the under on Colorado (7.5). CU lost their entire defense and one of the best DCs in the game.

I noted this in another thread, but the over on NU is -125 (bet $125 to win $100) so the implied odds on the over are about 56%.
 

On paper, I can see why Vegas would do that.

Basically new offense, with a new QB, with no returning starters except OL, which was lackluster last year.

New defense.

The upside: NU has building to this kind of offense for 2+ yrs, and the QB is not a rookie.

The defense is led by a very good DC in Diaco.

I think NU will have 5 wins for sure:

09/02 ARKANSAS STATE TBA
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09/16 NORTHERN ILLINOIS TBA
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09/23 RUTGERS TBA
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09/29 @ ILLINOIS TBA
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10/28 @
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PURDUE TBA

4 toss up games:

10/07 WISCONSIN TBA
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11/04 NORTHWESTERN TBA
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11/11 @ MINNESOTA TBA
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11/24 IOWA TBA
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3 upsets, if they are wins:

09/09 @ OREGON TBA
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10/14 OHIO STATE TBA
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11/18
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@ PENN STATE TBA

So if NU wins the 5 for sure wins, plus half the toss ups, that gets them to 7 wins. I think NU can win all the toss ups, and that would get them to 9. I think the real over-under might be 8.
Just want to point out that we've lost to both Illinois and Purdue in the last couple of years, both will be road games. Your toss-up games are exactly that.

Actually think we'll handle Oregon. They're dealing with transition problems of their own.
 



I think too many unknowns on both sides of the ball to say one way or another. I think 50-50 is a good bet. We just do not know what the attitude of the Ducks will be in this game.
Both teams have a lot to prove and this game will be a chance to make a statement.
 
And that DC went to Oregon.

True. And Oregon at Oregon is a tough game regardless, but I'm surprised early prognostications put NU as a nearly 7 to 1 underdog. That translates into a point spread around Oregon -14. If NU gets rolled by an Oregon team with a new coaching staff, I'll be dangling both feet off the Mike Riley bandwagon.
 
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Second game and it will be a loss.




C
Why should it be a loss? This is a game NU should win, needs to win. If they can't beat a 4-8 Oregon team, how the hell are they gonna beat the better teams in the BIG? Is the new coach that good he can just come in there and turn it around in year 1?
 
Why should it be a loss? This is a game NU should win, needs to win. If they can't beat a 4-8 Oregon team, how the hell are they gonna beat the better teams in the BIG? Is the new coach that good he can just come in there and turn it around in year 1?
Wow you are super psychic knowing that UO will be 4-8 this year.
 
Wow you are super psychic knowing that UO will be 4-8 this year.
They were 4-8 last year. That's all we've got to go on. Maybe they will be another team to turn it around in year 1 while NU is going on year 3 and vegas (whom isn't in the business of losing money) seems to think NU is good for about 6 wins. Wow, just WOW.
 
They were 4-8 last year. That's all we've got to go on. Maybe they will be another team to turn it around in year 1 while NU is going on year 3 and vegas (whom isn't in the business of losing money) seems to think NU is good for about 6 wins. Wow, just WOW.
Here is the thing though EVERY YEAR IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS DIFFERENT. Just because a team was 4-8 last year means nothing this year. Preseason predictions rarely work out as expected. So by your admission if we lose to UO our season is lost even if both teams go undefeated thereafter. let's just look at MSU the last 8 years.

Rk Year Conf W L T Pct SRS SOS AP Pre AP High AP Post Coach(es) Bowl Notes
1
2016 Big Ten 3 9 0 .250 -1.79 4.29 12 8 Mark Dantonio (3-9)
2 2015 Big Ten 12 2 0 .857 15.36 6.58 5 2 6 Mark Dantonio (12-2) Cotton Bowl-L
3
2014 Big Ten 11 2 0 .846 16.07 1.68 8 5 5 Mark Dantonio (11-2) Cotton Bowl-W
4
2013 Big Ten 13 1 0 .929 14.74 0.67 3 3 Mark Dantonio (13-1) Rose Bowl-W
5
2012 Big Ten 7 6 0 .538 6.21 3.75 13 10 Mark Dantonio (7-6) Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl-W
6
2011 Big Ten 11 3 0 .786 10.05 1.48 17 9 11 Mark Dantonio (11-3) Outback Bowl-W
7
2010 Big Ten 11 2 0 .846 9.91 1.29 5 14 Mark Dantonio (11-2) Capital One Bowl-L
8
2009 Big Ten 6 7 0 .462 2.52 1.68 Mark Dantonio (6-7) Alamo Bowl-L

Would anyone guess after 2012 that they would go 13-1 the next season?
 



Why should it be a loss? This is a game NU should win, needs to win. If they can't beat a 4-8 Oregon team, how the hell are they gonna beat the better teams in the BIG? Is the new coach that good he can just come in there and turn it around in year 1?

Should win, maybe. Needs to win, not even close. College football is not black and white nor do the transitive properties apply.



C
 


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