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Would the B1G or SEC kick any teams out?

jpmandm

Long time listener, first time caller
5 Year Member
I raised this possibility on another thread but did some further digging. I am sick with COVID for the past week, so I had some time. If anyone places 0 value on their time, they can read my super long essay about it here:

College Football: Musical Chairs and Pie Eating Contests

In sum, Nebraska has nothing to worry about. Neither do any Big Ten teams. The Big Ten is not kicking anyone out. Even football teams we don‘t really respect, like Minnesota and Purdue or Indiana draw big ratings comparable to any team left to add outside of Norte Dame. And they have sizable markets that get overlooked sometimes, like Indianapolis and MSP. Illinois might be considered on the bubble as it has lackluster ratings numbers and no big home market of its own. But it is a massively huge school, an academic powerhouse, and a founding member of the conference. Zero chance they get booted. Northwestern has poor ratings but is the only Big Ten team actually in Chicago and is super wealthy and academically elite as all get out and a longtime member of the conference. No way they get shown the door. That leaves Maryland and Rutgers. By ratings, they SHOULD get kicked out of the Big Ten. Rutgers especially. They have poor ratings. But they were just added 8 years ago to get the huge DC and NYC markets. No way the Big Ten would change its mind, especially because both of those schools owe the Big Ten boatloads of money from loans they got at the outset to bolster their flailing athletic programs.

As far as Nebraska, yes, we are a small school compared to the rest of the conference and don‘t have any big markets (Lincoln and Omaha combined might be #45 or so and there are more people in dozens of COUNTIES in the Big Ten with more people than the state of Nebraska). But, at least for the foreseeable future, we are the #12-ish school in the country in terms of ratings. We have double the viewers on average than does Purdue and 600K more than Iowa, the next school below us. In terms of ratings, which sell ads, and streaming eyeballs, which get people to pay for the Big Ten Network app, there is simply no reason to replace us, as any school that would be better than us financially from the Big Ten‘s perspective would also grow the pie on its own, so there is no reason for us or anyone else to get kicked out. In other words, any team that would only be worth it for the B1G to add by kicking a team out isn‘t worth adding at all.

Now, the SEC on the other hand… Mississippi State and South Carolina should be worried. Vanderbilt’s ratings are abysmal and they are in a market, Nashville, that the SEC already has with Tennessee. But there is no chance the SEC would kick out the only school that gives it any academic credibility and Vandy is also wealthy as hell. That said, its ratings are comically low. 37,000 people per game on average, which is hard to do when you play Alabama every year. That is #106 in the country. It is ridiculous how few people care about Vandy football. They would be gone in a second if they weren’t the Harvard of the South.

But South Carolina has nothing. Poor ratings. No market. No football success at all. They only joined the SEC in 1991. They were independent before that and in the ACC until they left in 1971 because they didn’t want a minimum 800 SAT score for football players. Seriously. Academics are average at best. If the SEC has to look at adding schools that might not grow the pie on their own, like Florida State or Miami or Georgia Tech, they could show South Carolina the door and turn a neutral or negative financial addition into a net gain.

Ditto for Mississippi State. Sorry Bulldogs. The only difference is they’ve been in the conference longer and it would be a bad look to kick them out. But there are plenty of otherwise borderline additions that become net positives when you have less cowbell.

Missouri’s ratings are abysmal as well, but they were just added and brought the St. Louis and KC markets into an SEC, that, let’s not forget, doesn’t have a lot of big markets to begin with. Let’s remember, their best teams are in Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Baton Rouge, etc. Atlanta and Nashville are about all they had, so you can see now why they wanted Mizzou and A&M and now want Texas and OU and would want UNC and UVA badly if they decide to go after the ACC.

But overall, the Big Ten has a tremendous advantage over the SEC in expansion long term because they had far more major TV markets to begin with and can easily add more. They can add Atlanta by adding Georgia Tech. The SEC already has Atlanta so Georgia Tech is a net loss for them if they don’t kick someone out to make room. Same for Florida State or Miami.

UVA and UNC are net gains for either the Big Ten or SEC. But if the SEC breaks up the ACC, they have far more to lose than gain versus the Big Ten.

Also, the SEC has no chance at Notre Dame and no real reason to go west now that USC and UCLA are gone. It is truly boxed in. That’s why if things go nuclear in the future, the only way the SEC can keep up with the Big Ten in terms of raw numbers and per-team payouts would be to show South Carolina and/or Mississippi State the door.
 
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DuckTownHusker

Blackshirt Sith Lord
10 Year Member
The only real reason for the SEC to go West might be Arizona and/or ASU to capture the Phoenix market and gain a footprint into AZ recruitment.

And then there are some doomsday scenarios, like Oregon and Washington going SEC, geography be damned.
 

BigRedAvenger

Poster of Substance
5 Year Member
As long as the SEC is dominant, and the population continues moving into their region, I think they are ok being boxed in. Southern pride is a real thing. I think they prefer to keep things in their little square.
 

jpmandm

Long time listener, first time caller
5 Year Member
Phoenix would be worth it, but Arizona State is outside the top 40 in ratings (#47) and Arizona, is technically in Tucson market and has far worse ratings (#67). Doesn’t really move the needle even for Phoenix. Oregon And Washington would absolutely go to the SEC if the Big Ten passes them over to get ND, Stanford and Cal. But I think the Big Ten will take them first regardless of whether ND joins and OU and UW would joint the Big Ten over the SEC because they already have two west coast opponents in USC and UCLA, which also keep So Cal recruiting open for them.

To get OU and UW the SEC would have to add Arizona State and/or Utah, which aren‘t appealing to OU or UW because they don’t help in California recruiting.

I just don‘t see the SEC going west when they have better options on their doorstep (Clemson, UNC).
 

jpmandm

Long time listener, first time caller
5 Year Member
As long as the SEC is dominant, and the population continues moving into their region, I think they are ok being boxed in. Southern pride is a real thing. I think they prefer to keep things in their little square.
Well, they have to be OK with it because that’s the position they are in. They are one of the Big Two and are probably the top dog right now. But going forward the Big Ten is now playing offense and the SEC playing defense because the Big Ten just has more to gain.

Yes. Demographics are in the SEC’s favor, but that’s a fifty year trend, and the Big Ten can counter that by going after Georgia Tech, Florida State, and UNC if the SEC opens the doors by breaking open the ACC. And the SEC will never get Norte Dame.

So if the SEC opens up the ACC, they are at a disadvantage, and if they don’t they are too because the Big Ten will get OU and UW and possibly also ND, Stanford, and Cal.
 

Redleg

Red Shirt
5 Year Member
The SEC can raid the ACC and be fine.

At a time of expansion, there's just not much reason to kick folks out of the SEC or B1G. Neither conference is in a position where they are forced to do a 1 for 1 swap so I just don't see it happening. FSU and Miami would not be anywhere a net loss for the SEC. Florida is a large state and both of those universities have passionate alumni and fans scattered throughout the East/Southeast.

If the SEC locks down Florida by adding FSU and Miami then climbs up the eastern seaboard with the likes of Clemson, UNC, UVA, etc, they'll have all they need. They could poach from the ACC to get to 20 or 24 teams. They may not have the major markets, but their passion per TV set is much better than the B1G and plenty enough to keep ESPN laying out the $$$$.
 
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jikastew

13
15 Year Member
The SEC can raid the ACC and be fine.

At a time of expansion, there's just not much reason to kick folks out of the SEC or B1G. Neither conference is in a position where they are forced to do a 1 for 1 swap so I just don't see it happening. FSU and Miami would not be anywhere a net loss for the SEC. Florida is a large state and both of those universities have passionate alumni and fans scattered throughout the East/Southeast.

If the SEC locks down Florida by adding FSU and Miami then climbs up the easter seaboard with the likes of Clemson, UNC, UVA, etc, they'll have all they need. They could poach from the ACC to get to 20 or 24 teams. They may not have the major markets, but their passion per TV set is much better than the B1G and plenty enough to keep ESPN laying out the $$$$.
I'll go on record saying UVA, UNC and Duke will never join the SEC unless expressly rejected by the B1G. I feel pretty confident about that. Now Miami? That's a real question. Most people don't realize the academic surrounding at Miami, especially in medicine. I would love to be a fly on the wall when their admin gets together if they had offers from both the B1G and SEC. I don't think a path to the SEC is as clear-cut as most would believe. I think staying regional would make the difference, however.
 

Redleg

Red Shirt
5 Year Member
I'll go on record saying UVA, UNC and Duke will never join the SEC unless expressly rejected by the B1G. I feel pretty confident about that. Now Miami? That's a real question. Most people don't realize the academic surrounding at Miami, especially in medicine. I would love to be a fly on the wall when their admin gets together if they had offers from both the B1G and SEC. I don't think a path to the SEC is as clear-cut as most would believe. I think staying regional would make the difference, however.
My post wasn't so much about which specific schools are hoping to go to the SEC. Clemson, though, is much more likely to go to the SEC than B1G, and they are the big dog of the conference right now. My comments were more about-

1- The SEC won't kick any member schools out. They'll simply add schools.
2- They (SEC) have enough passion per TV set in the smaller market areas to keep ESPN dolling out $$$$ enabling them to keep pace with the B1G.
 

jpmandm

Long time listener, first time caller
5 Year Member
My post wasn't so much about which specific schools are hoping to go to the SEC. Clemson, though, is much more likely to go to the SEC than B1G, and they are the big dog of the conference right now. My comments were more about-

1- The SEC won't kick any member schools out. They'll simply add schools.
2- They (SEC) have enough passion per TV set in the smaller market areas to keep ESPN dolling out $$$$ enabling them to keep pace with the B1G.
Clemson is not as big a get from a TV perspective as people think. They're barely in the top 20 ratings wise and have absolutely no inherent TV market. They are a regional program that is awesome football wise. Once Dabo is gone there's no guarantee that continues

Don't get me wrong,the SEC would take them for sure and they would go and the SEC wouldn't have to kick anyone out to take them.

My point is that if the SEC does that and the Big Ten responds by aiming at a school like Georgia Tech or FSU, the SEC taking those schools in particular to stop the B1G from getting them would be much more financially palatable to the SEC if they could cut loose Miss St and South Carolina, who generate very little compared to what they get
 
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dwc13

Recruit
2 Year Member
I've been a part of the B1G Ten since the 80s, back when Northwestern was arguably the worst college football program...ever. Losers of 34 games in a row from 1979-82, outscored by over 400 points in a winless season (82-505, 0-11 in 1981). There was some talk/speculation about whether the league should kick out NU because, in part, the Wildcats were an on-field embarrassment. Oh, and the other conference schools were losing money traveling to Evanston. Keep in mind this was long before big media rights money would render that issue moot. Fortunately, the move to boot Northwestern never gained serious traction. As Husker fans note, the Wildcats have significantly improved since then and conference games against that school have largely been very competitive (2021 notwithstanding).

So there is zero chance of a current B1G Ten member getting kicked to make room for another "better" option. And if it didn't happen to Penn State after the Jerry Sandusky scandal came to light, termination for cause probably isn't ever going to be invoked.
 

jpmandm

Long time listener, first time caller
5 Year Member
I've been a part of the B1G Ten since the 80s, back when Northwestern was arguably the worst college football program...ever. Losers of 34 games in a row from 1979-82, outscored by over 400 points in a winless season (82-505, 0-11 in 1981). There was some talk/speculation about whether the league should kick out NU because, in part, the Wildcats were an on-field embarrassment. Oh, and the other conference schools were losing money traveling to Evanston. Keep in mind this was long before big media rights money would render that issue moot. Fortunately, the move to boot Northwestern never gained serious traction. As Husker fans note, the Wildcats have significantly improved since then and conference games against that school have largely been very competitive (2021 notwithstanding).

So there is zero chance of a current B1G Ten member getting kicked to make room for another "better" option. And if it didn't happen to Penn State after the Jerry Sandusky scandal came to light, termination for cause probably isn't ever going to be invoked.
Agree. The Big Ten doesn't or need want any program that is only worth it if they kick someone out. Now if Notre Dame asked them to? .... Haha
 
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