See boldedI agree with all of the above, but what you left out about a young team is that they also tend to lose focus easily, and a talented young team often/usually ends up losing games that they shouldn't. I absolutely agree that we can beat OSU this year, and I think it's probably about 50/50, but I also think that it's likely that we choke and lose 1 or 2 games that we shouldn't, to teams like Maryland, Indiana, or Purdue. I'm also more concerned about Minnesota than Wisconsin this year. I think that Iowa is likely to be the most well-rounded team in the West. Put it all together, and those are a lot of unknown variables that will add up to some losses.
Iowa and Northwestern will be better than Wisconsin this year and probably next year as well. Wisconsin ran out of bodies on the D-line at the end of last year to the point that they shifted a Guard (who is starting this year) over to D-line last year. They brought a few more guys in, but not enough to replace all that graduated. They'll have an All-American Center this year and a couple other good linemen, but that Center will go pro after this season, and next year's O-line will not be as good as this year's, let alone those in the past. It might even be down this year with just an injury or two as they simply don't have the depth to overcome it. Their D-line will struggle this year, especially as the season wears on, and guys get nicked up. As to the future, our getting Hutmacher--which means that they didn't--was doubly huge. The last I looked they didn't have another top-flight D-lineman ready to commit.
If Paul Chryst doesn't turn around his recruiting and get more than enough to plug the gaps on both sides of the line, you'll see more games like the one against Minnesota last year.
I agree, they could have beaten us by a couple of TDs if they'd avoided a bunch of unnecessary passes. The bad news is almost that entire O-line is back, along with all of their top RBs.
At the same time, last year's odd play calling is also a positive because Brian Ferentz was the guy calling those plays, and he's going to be doing that for as long as his dad is the head coach. Last year's Iowa passing attack is about as good as it's been with 2 NFL TEs and Stanley, who's an above-average QB. With both TEs gone, they'll have to find new targets, and with Stanley being a senior (and no obvious replacement behind him), we can probably focus on stopping the run, and the rest will get easier.
Unless we play Michigan in the B1G Championship, Iowa is the best B1G running team that we'll see this year. Taylor will still break a big run or two, but their O-line from last year is not going to be duplicated this year. I think that our D-line will be noticeably better. The bad news, though, is that we're going to see better running teams overall than last year, and there will be a wild variety of offensive systems this year. Minnesota has 3 top-notch RBs now that they're all healthy. Maryland's will be a spread look with a fantastic young RB (McFarland). Northwestern has Bowser with a better QB. Ohio State will probably focus less on running the ball than they have ever, but they'll still have Dobbins along with a running QB (Fields), and a lot of talent in the O-line. Even Illinois should be a good running team this year. It's not enough to just be able to stop the run in the B1G this year--though you can't win if you don't--you have to be able to do so out of almost every offensive scheme.
I think so, too, but we'll find out for sure between this year and next.
Again, I agree. I didn't dig into the details before the start of last year, so knowing that they had Taylor, Hornibrook, and the best O-line in football back, I thought that they would be a playoff team. Instead, they were very fortunate to draw an also-struggling Miami to wipe away some of the bad taste from the end of last year. If they had lost their overtime game with Purdue, they would have drawn Auburn, and I think that Purdue would have beat Miami, and Wisconsin would have gotten boat-raced by Auburn, too. That one OT game with Purdue saved their season. People forget that even lowly BYU ran the ball effectively against Wisconsin, and that was early in the year before the injuries made things worse.
I don't expect Wisconsin to finish higher than 4th in the West this year. If they surprise me and do significantly better than that. then I'll admit that Chryst is a better coach than I'd thought. They will lose to Michigan (at home) and to OSU, and I think that those games are more likely to be blowout losses than for Wisconsin to win. I pick both Iowa and Minnesota to beat them, too, but those will be closer. Finally, they're likely to drop at least a couple between Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Purdue. I think that Wisconsin's ceiling this year is 9-3, and their basement is 5-7. Five losses seem likely.
This is the great unknown. How quickly will he play? Will he play like a true freshman or better?
See above.
Minnesota has by far the most favorable schedule of the B1G West teams, and Iowa has by far the most key players returning on both sides of the ball, yet for some reason it seems like both are getting short shrift when talking about who will win the West. Northwestern and Wisconsin will have to overcome a brutal schedule, and Iowa's is tougher than it has been in recent years, so I think that if we win 3 out of 4 of those games, AND one of the wins is Minnesota (because they won't be piling up losses from crossover games), I think we will win the West.
But, Nebraska has Mario!
