Cal and Stanford are the very incarnation of liberal California politics!
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Where are the rumors about new members?
- Thread starter EastOfEden
- Start date
Look into the debt cal-berkely is currently sitting in. They need to join the ivy league. Maybe Venezuela has a spot open?
Notre Dame very quickly said they were going to remain independent the last time around. My take, which is worth nothing, is that because they haven't said no, they're still working though the issues.
I would thing that there are some complex negations that would need to take place before they can say yes or no, such as:
(a) how much NBC will pay them as an independent (which depends on NBC to work out something with another conference for programming),
(b) how much multiple networks will pay each team in a Big Ten with Notre Dame (negotiations about which still seems to be in progress), and
(c) what the negotiated cost will be for them to break with the ACC.
Given the complexity, it might be that Notre Dame isn't in a position yet to know their best path, at least from a financial perspective.
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There is talk that there will be two conferences, similar to the NFL, they would include 32-40 teams. If ND was not in one then they would not be playing any of those teams, you would play in conference and then playoffs. So ND has an issue that if it is truly moving in that direction they would need to be in a conference or their TV matchups will not be worth what they are now.
It doesn't benefit the B1G to tip their hand on who they are in talks with. The last few major moves we seen with conferences have happened without any real warning. People can hypothesize what the next move is, but if I was the conference I would stay tight lipped.
Having some alignment with the ACC makes a move to the B1G difficult. I would assume that ND is going to take their time, especially considering the things you've already outlined.
How much can they get out of NBC (or even CBS- who lost the SEC)? Can they get a massive deal out of them, or would it be more advantageous to join a conference?
The more teams these conferences add, you'd expect to see TV deals value go up. That being said, you also have to spread that money out amongst more teams. Is that a wash or more profitable?
ND has already partially hitched their wagon to the ACC. What happens with that conference? Do they begin to get poached, or can they make some power moves to draw in schools to strengthen the conference? If they do, would it make more sense for ND to go all-in with the ACC?
Conference realignment is far more complex then it was a decade ago when Nebraska made the move. We see the potential of entire conferences dying off and a wrong move could spell disaster for some of these schools. I think it is wise for ND to weigh their options.
My point being that has nothing to do with football.
I don’t think an exit fee from the ACC is a real obstacle. We know Notre Dame doesn’t have any football rights entangled with the ACC. The value of forfeiting anything else isn’t worth hesitating over, if indeed they DO have a legal obstacle to recovering those rights. Just let the clock run out on them and let the ACC retain them, worst case scenario.
It's a $100 million exit fee for Notre Dame to leave the ACC.
I’ve actually read that the ACC grant of rights is only a couple pages document, and most legal experts think there are probably viable arguments to make to challenge it. Most contracts dealing with issues like this are a lot more detailed and complex, and hundreds of pages long.
I also don’t see the Big 10 pursuing an ACC team right now, but I think if/when someone decides to do so it will be a raft of ACC teams leaving simultaneously. I think we’ll suddenly find that the grant of rights is not as enforceable as once thought in that situation.
The article doesn’t say who is estimating this amount. Surely Notre Dame isn’t being paid a share of ACC football revenue, so it’s not defensible to expect them to pay a full media share value upon exit. But even if this were true, the money works out in favor of joining the Big 10. They’d cover that loss in about a year and come out ahead pretty quickly.It's a $100 million exit fee for Notre Dame to leave the ACC.
Edit - I see the football revenue was mentioned. It’s crazy with the values being thrown around, but I don’t think $100 million is a big enough deterrent to prevent the move. Depends how high NBC is willing to go, and whether Notre Dame fears losing access to the championship process.
I haven’t seen much knowledgeable speculation about what the next iteration of the championship tournament will look like. But if the SEC wanted 12 teams before, I suspect the Big 10 will suddenly endorse a similar model, mostly wildcards.
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With a media deal in the works for the Big Ten, I do not see the offer to ND being an open ended offer. Even the most desperate guy gives up on the pretty girl and moves on eventually. The Big Ten is setting itself up for the future, and I would not be surprised if this is it for ND. Join, and they also bring in Stanford, Washington and Oregon. Or don't join and they bring in Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon, with the knowledge that there will be no future offers and their only option down the road may be the SEC if things go nuclear; which a move like this could trigger. They would also face the possibility of losing out on 2 of their West Coast rivals.
I heard that it all comes down to a shoe deal...
What can Nike do? Work a new shoe deal with ND? Behind the scenes get NBC to get in on the B1G media package by getting ND home games and west coast time slots for games with new members of B1G from the PAC? Perhaps get NBC to input about $350M of the total media package, with Fox and ESPN paying another $900M for all other games.
All to help position Oregon to be part of the group that comes in with ND.
ND brings way more value than any of the potential PAC additions (OR, WA, Stanford).
So even if the B1G can offer ND $90M, they will want more because they are greedy and they are used to getting their way.
Thus, Nike has to come in and drop some gold nuggets at the feet of Touchdown Jesus to get this done.
What can Nike do? Work a new shoe deal with ND? Behind the scenes get NBC to get in on the B1G media package by getting ND home games and west coast time slots for games with new members of B1G from the PAC? Perhaps get NBC to input about $350M of the total media package, with Fox and ESPN paying another $900M for all other games.
All to help position Oregon to be part of the group that comes in with ND.
ND brings way more value than any of the potential PAC additions (OR, WA, Stanford).
So even if the B1G can offer ND $90M, they will want more because they are greedy and they are used to getting their way.
Thus, Nike has to come in and drop some gold nuggets at the feet of Touchdown Jesus to get this done.
