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We can win out

Alabama is the highest ranked 2-loss team and is making the CFP with two losses over some deserving 1-loss teams (Indiana?). LSU with 2-losses is only 2 spots behind ‘Bama.

Don't forget 1-loss Tennessee. Or 2-loss Ole Miss or Missouri. Now I don’t think Mizzou gets in even with just 2-losses.

Ole Miss needs to win out but if they beat UGA (and win out) they’re likely in.
Tennessee plays UGA. Even if they lose that game they likely win the rest and are in.
Alabama plays LSU, I’d bet money right now that even if LSU wins ‘Bama gets in.
LSU has to beat ‘Bama to get in but if they do they’re in.
A&M wins out until end of the season UT game. They’re in despite the outcome of that game.
Texas likely wins out till A&M game, they’re likely in if that happens.
UGA plays Ole Miss and the Vols. They need to win 1 of those 2 and they’re in.

I see a scenario where 6 SEC teams get in.
I'm not as confident as you are that this could play out this way. I don't see the loser of the LSU/Alabama still getting in the playoff. Plus you are making some pretty keen assumptions on winning out. The numbers just don't support getting 6 teams in there when right now it looks like The B1G will generate at least 3 teams. Penn State, Oregon and Ohio State with a strong chance of Indiana. The Big 12 presently has 2 undefeated teams and one......kansas state with one loss to the number 9 team. They are very likely going to get 2 teams in. Notre Dame is almost guaranteed a spot and the ACC guaranteed 1 and likely 2 teams.

I see it more like this

4 SEC
3 B1G
2 ACC
2 Big 12
1 Notre Dame
 

I'm not as confident as you are that this could play out this way. I don't see the loser of the LSU/Alabama still getting in the playoff. Plus you are making some pretty keen assumptions on winning out. The numbers just don't support getting 6 teams in there when right now it looks like The B1G will generate at least 3 teams. Penn State, Oregon and Ohio State with a strong chance of Indiana. The Big 12 presently has 2 undefeated teams and one......kansas state with one loss to the number 9 team. They are very likely going to get 2 teams in. Notre Dame is almost guaranteed a spot and the ACC guaranteed 1 and likely 2 teams.

I see it more like this

4 SEC
3 B1G
2 ACC
2 Big 12
1 Notre Dame
One non P4 conf champ has to be in. So likely only 3 teams between Big 12 and ACC unless ND loses again. I agree with you the SEC isn’t getting 6 teams. Very, very unlikely they get 5. If ND loses and only one Big 12 team has less than 2 losses maybe there is a chance for 5- 6 SEC. Maybe.
 
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I'm not as confident as you are that this could play out this way. I don't see the loser of the LSU/Alabama still getting in the playoff. Plus you are making some pretty keen assumptions on winning out. The numbers just don't support getting 6 teams in there when right now it looks like The B1G will generate at least 3 teams. Penn State, Oregon and Ohio State with a strong chance of Indiana. The Big 12 presently has 2 undefeated teams and one......kansas state with one loss to the number 9 team. They are very likely going to get 2 teams in. Notre Dame is almost guaranteed a spot and the ACC guaranteed 1 and likely 2 teams.

I see it more like this

4 SEC
3 B1G
2 ACC
2 Big 12
1 Notre Dame
Don’t forget there is a G5 guarantee bid (Boise State, Navy …).

I am not as confident about 2 B12 teams and 2 ACC teams.

B12
KState 7-1 plays Houston, ASU, Cincy and ISU … loss to BYU may be huge
Colorado 6-2 plays TTU, Kansas, OkState and Utah … 3 of the 4 worst teams in B12
BYU 8-0 plays Utah, ASU, Kansas and Houston … not one team w/ a winning conf record
ISU 7-0 plays TTU, Kansas, Cincy, Utah and KState … KSU last week of the season may be for a CCG spot.

The 4 contenders play relatively easy schedules to finish the season. ISU-KSU game could be for CCG spot and a CFP position. If chalk holds ... CU is out ... but if there are upsets they could sneak into the CCG. The media would love a CU qualifier for the CFP.

ACC
A very top heavy conference. 4 teams with 1-loss or are undefeated.

Clemson 5-0 in conference loss to Georgia plays VTech, Pitt, The Citadel and SoCarolina.
Pitt 3-0 in conf also undefeated plays SMU, Virginia, Pitt, BC and Louisville.
Miami FL is 4-0 in conference also undefeated plays Duke, GTech, Wake and Syracuse.
SMU is 4-0 in conference with 1 loss to BYU plays Pitt, BC, Virginia and Cal.

Everyone else in the conference has 3 or more losses.

Pitt plays a tough schedule with games against 2 of the 3 other contenders.
 
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There are a lot of comparisons to our last year's statistical position. However, something feels different this year. It's like we have more talent but stepping on our *ick more. I feel there is a higher ceiling on it this year.
Yeah, stepping on it, but I don't think it's worse than last year.
I've no way to prove it, of course, but since this has been a problem spanning multiple coaching regimes, I could be convinced there's nefarious outside influence in play.
Exhibit 1: the abysmal refereeing. I didn't see the OSU game but I did watch the "highlights" of bad/no calls. That crap is inexcusable.
Exhibit 2: NU's "almost always always win" record. What's our record now in 1 score games?
 



Don’t forget there is a G5 guarantee bid (Boise State, Navy …).

I am not as confident about 2 B12 teams and 2 ACC teams.

B12
KState 7-1 plays Houston, ASU, Cincy and ISU … loss to BYU may be huge
Colorado 6-2 plays TTU, Kansas, OkState and Utah … 3 of the 4 worst teams in B12
BYU 8-0 plays Utah, ASU, Kansas and Houston … not one team w/ a winning conf record
ISU 7-0 plays TTU, Kansas, Cincy, Utah and KState … KSU last week of the season may be for a CCG spot.

The 4 contenders play relatively easy schedules to finish the season. ISU-KSU game could be for CCG spot and a CfP position. If chalk holds CU is out but if there are upsets they could sneak in.

Don’t forget there is a G5 guarantee bid (Boise State, Navy …).

I am not as confident about 2 B12 teams and 2 ACC teams.

B12
KState 7-1 plays Houston, ASU, Cincy and ISU … loss to BYU may be huge
Colorado 6-2 plays TTU, Kansas, OkState and Utah … 3 of the 4 worst teams in B12
BYU 8-0 plays Utah, ASU, Kansas and Houston … not one team w/ a winning conf record
ISU 7-0 plays TTU, Kansas, Cincy, Utah and KState … KSU last week of the season may be for a CCG spot.

The 4 contenders play relatively easy schedules to finish the season. ISU-KSU game could be for CCG spot and a CFP position. If chalk holds ... CU is out ... but if there are upsets they could sneak into the CCG. The media would love a CU qualifier for the CFP.

ACC
A very top heavy conference. 4 teams with 1-loss or are undefeated.

Clemson 5-0 in conference loss to Georgia plays VTech, Pitt, The Citadel and SoCarolina.
Pitt 3-0 in conf also undefeated plays SMU, Virginia, Pitt, BC and Louisville.
Miami FL is 4-0 in conference also undefeated plays Duke, GTech, Wake and Syracuse.
SMU is 4-0 in conference with 1 loss to BYU plays Pitt, BC, Virginia and Cal.

Everyone else in the conference has 3 or more losses.

Pitt plays a tough schedule with games against 2 of the 3 other contenders.
I think those heavy weighted ones on top is what gives them a chance to get 2 teams in. As far as the G5. For some reason I thought major independents were included in that in which Notre Dame would be that slot. That might be wrong though. Maybe that was in edition 1-22 of the playoffs rules of years ago.

If so I think that makes it even more difficult to get 6 SEC teams in if there are only 10 spots available for the P-4. Obviously 4 would go to the conference champions. Giving 5 of the remaining 6 to the SEC just isn't going to happen. I see at best 3 with 2 more going to B1G and one more going to ACC or Big 12
 
I think those heavy weighted ones on top is what gives them a chance to get 2 teams in. As far as the G5. For some reason I thought major independents were included in that in which Notre Dame would be that slot. That might be wrong though. Maybe that was in edition 1-22 of the playoffs rules of years ago.

If so I think that makes it even more difficult to get 6 SEC teams in if there are only 10 spots available for the P-4. Obviously 4 would go to the conference champions. Giving 5 of the remaining 6 to the SEC just isn't going to happen. I see at best 3 with 2 more going to B1G and one more going to ACC or Big 12
I think that was the case before the expanded playoffs. Now they are required to take the 5 highest ranked conference champions. Since Notre Dame is not competing in a conference, they can't be conference champions, and can't receive a 1st round bye.

I doubt it will happen, but just imagine the wailing and whining if Boise State were to finish higher ranked than either the ACC or Big 12 champion, in which case they would receive the round 1 bye and host the 2nd round?
 
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That’s absolutely right.

Beat UCLA because that’s who’s coming to Lincoln on Saturday.

Do that and we can start talking about USC.

We’re certainly not in the ‘Looking past an opponent’ mode yet, and with the changes in college football, I’d say that’s the case for nearly all FBS teams.
Again Crab = The voice of reason
 





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