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Way-Too-Early 2023 Best-Worst-Likely Scenarios

Crusty

Crusty

Perfectly Unorthodox
5 Year Member
Opponent-------Best---Worst--Likely
@Minnesota-----W34-20 L13-27 L23-24
@Colorado------W35-17 L17-28 W27-21
N. Illinois----W42-13 W23-21 W31-17
LA Tech--------W41-10 W31-17 W37-13
Michigan-------L23-28 L13-41 L20-34
@Illinois------W27-17 L13-21 W21-17
Northwestern---W34-14 L21-24 W24-21
Purdue---------W37-20 L34-37 W34-30
@Mich State----W30-20 L17-21 W27-21
Maryland-------W31-21 L20-31 L24-28
@Wisconsin-----W37-24 L31-34 W34-30
Iowa-----------W27-23 L17-28 W24-23
----------------11-1----2-10---9-3
11-1 would be a dream.
2-10 is far more likely to happen than 11 wins but let's hope not.
9-3 although a great start to the Rhule era, is stretching it.
7.3-4.7 average could be the actual likely scenario.

Honestly this was hard to predict.
I can see Nebraska taking a slow start against Minnesota but bouncing back against Colorado.
CU seems to be in a bigger overall than Nebraska so I don't see them gelling together that early.
NIU and LA Tech I can see as wins but definitely shouldn't check them off as an automatic win.
I don't see us pulling the upset over Michigan but I can see a scenario in which the Huskers give them a possible scare.
Illinois can easily go either way.
Northwestern.
Purdue could be on the up and up but could easily take a step back, another toss-up.
The Spartans could be pretty tough if they capture what they did two years ago, could be a toss-up.
I see Maryland being the same as they were last year more or less, if Nebraska wins it could be considered an upset.
I have absolutely no clue how the Badgers will be this year, they'll be tough but their new schemes could take more than a full season to yield results.
Iowa will most likely have a better offense and you can count on the defense to be tough, could very well be an upset if Nebraska could pull it off.
 
Last edited:

Crusty said:
Opponent-------Best---Worst--Likely
@Minnesota-----W34-20 L13-27 L23-24
@Colorado------W35-17 L17-28 W27-21
N. Illinois----W42-13 W23-21 W31-17
LA Tech--------W41-10 W31-17 W37-13
Michigan-------L23-28 L13-41 L20-34
@Illinois------W27-17 L13-21 W21-17
Northwestern---W34-14 L21-24 W24-21
Purdue---------W37-20 L34-37 W34-30
@Mich State----W30-20 L17-21 W27-21
Maryland-------W31-21 L20-31 L24-28
@Wisconsin-----W37-24 L31-34 W34-30
Iowa-----------W27-23 L17-28 W24-23
----------------11-1----2-10---9-3
11-1 would be a dream.
2-10 is far more likely to happen than 11 wins but let's hope not.
9-3 although a great start to the Rhule era, is stretching it.
7.3-4.7 average could be the actual likely scenario.

Honestly this was hard to predict.
I can see Nebraska taking a slow start against Minnesota but bouncing back against Colorado.
CU seems to be in a bigger overall than Nebraska so I don't see them gelling together that early.
NIU and LA Tech I can see as wins but definitely shouldn't check them off as an automatic win.
I don't see us pulling the upset over Michigan but I can see a scenario in which the Huskers give them a possible scare.
Illinois can easily go either way.
Northwestern.
Purdue could be on the up and up but could easily take a step back, another toss-up.
The Spartans could be pretty tough if they capture what they did two years ago, could be a toss-up.
I see Maryland being the same as they were last year more or less, if Nebraska wins it could be considered an upset.
I have absolutely no clue how the Badgers will be this year, they'll be tough but their new schemes could take more than a full season to yield results.
Iowa will most likely have a better offense and you can count on the defense to be tough, could very well be an upset if Nebraska could pull it off.
Click to expand...
Looks like a good analysis. My only thought is if we are looking at the “likely” category we would be 7-2 playing a 3 or 4 loss Maryland. I don’t think it would be an upset.
 
4-1 in road games? I would take that.

I can't remember the last time we won even 3 road games in a season. Maybe Riley's second year?
 
Hville said:
Looks like a good analysis. My only thought is if we are looking at the “likely” category we would be 7-2 playing a 3 or 4 loss Maryland. I don’t think it would be an upset.
Click to expand...
My thought being, Maryland plays in the tougher division, knows how to win and already has themselves established in there system.

With several schools in the west and Colorado, Nebraska is facing teams that are trying to start over, if Nebraska is able to win most of their games it could just look could superficially. A 3 or 4 loss Maryland team will still be a formidable opponent.
 



Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois in the likely category just doesn’t seem probable to me. I can see a close loss as the likely scenario but to win all three …
 
stewie-nervous.gif

Just get to a bowl. Just get to a bowl. Just get to a bowl.
 
Crusty said:
My thought being, Maryland plays in the tougher division, knows how to win and already has themselves established in there system.

With several schools in the west and Colorado, Nebraska is facing teams that are trying to start over, if Nebraska is able to win most of their games it could just look could superficially. A 3 or 4 loss Maryland team will still be a formidable opponent.
Click to expand...
I don’t disagree with your thinking I’m just saying a 3-4 loss Maryland against a 2 loss Nebraska team in Lincoln would hardly seem to be an upset if we won.
 
What I take away from this is that you believe there are two sure wins and one sure loss.

I'm intrigued that you included a score in each category (Best-Worst-Likely.) Did you use an algorithm to determine these scores or was it mostly gut feel?
 




Bigger Ed said:
What I take away from this is that you believe there are two sure wins and one sure loss.

I'm intrigued that you included a score in each category (Best-Worst-Likely.) Did you use an algorithm to determine these scores or was it mostly gut feel?
Click to expand...
Gut feeling based off what I've seen from each team and how I see it playing out
 
Crusty said:
Opponent-------Best---Worst--Likely
@Minnesota-----W34-20 L13-27 L23-24
@Colorado------W35-17 L17-28 W27-21
N. Illinois----W42-13 W23-21 W31-17
LA Tech--------W41-10 W31-17 W37-13
Michigan-------L23-28 L13-41 L20-34
@Illinois------W27-17 L13-21 W21-17
Northwestern---W34-14 L21-24 W24-21
Purdue---------W37-20 L34-37 W34-30
@Mich State----W30-20 L17-21 W27-21
Maryland-------W31-21 L20-31 L24-28
@Wisconsin-----W37-24 L31-34 W34-30
Iowa-----------W27-23 L17-28 W24-23
----------------11-1----2-10---9-3
11-1 would be a dream.
2-10 is far more likely to happen than 11 wins but let's hope not.
9-3 although a great start to the Rhule era, is stretching it.
7.3-4.7 average could be the actual likely scenario.

Honestly this was hard to predict.
I can see Nebraska taking a slow start against Minnesota but bouncing back against Colorado.
CU seems to be in a bigger overall than Nebraska so I don't see them gelling together that early.
NIU and LA Tech I can see as wins but definitely shouldn't check them off as an automatic win.
I don't see us pulling the upset over Michigan but I can see a scenario in which the Huskers give them a possible scare.
Illinois can easily go either way.
Northwestern.
Purdue could be on the up and up but could easily take a step back, another toss-up.
The Spartans could be pretty tough if they capture what they did two years ago, could be a toss-up.
I see Maryland being the same as they were last year more or less, if Nebraska wins it could be considered an upset.
I have absolutely no clue how the Badgers will be this year, they'll be tough but their new schemes could take more than a full season to yield results.
Iowa will most likely have a better offense and you can count on the defense to be tough, could very well be an upset if Nebraska could pull it off.
Click to expand...

You see 9-3 as likely?
 
As you said, way too early. With our lack of depth, injuries will be a very big deal and if there are too many in the wrong positions, good luck to us.

Let's see how they are after Fall practice.
 
The first 2 games are going to be absolutely gigantic this year.

Lose both and we're almost guaranteed a losing season and no bowl.

Win both and 9-3/8-4 suddenly doesn't look like much of a stretch.

Split them and a "successful" season (.500 or over imo) is still very possible.

We will learn an awful lot about these guys very quickly into the season.
 



Lavaman said:
The first 2 games are going to be absolutely gigantic this year.

Lose both and we're almost guaranteed a losing season and no bowl.

Win both and 9-3/8-4 suddenly doesn't look like much of a stretch.

Split them and a "successful" season (.500 or over imo) is still very possible.

We will learn an awful lot about these guys very quickly into the season.
Click to expand...
I tend to believe this. But then again the early learning would be typical of any new team with any new coach.

It is also possible we lose the first two but looked really good doing it. And that leads to continued improvement and 6-7 wins.
 

Lavaman said:
The first 2 games are going to be absolutely gigantic this year.

Lose both and we're almost guaranteed a losing season and no bowl.

Win both and 9-3/8-4 suddenly doesn't look like much of a stretch.

Split them and a "successful" season (.500 or over imo) is still very possible.

We will learn an awful lot about these guys very quickly into the season.
Click to expand...
I think we’ll split them.
 
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