The roster flip

[ShortSideOption]

Yeah... they've done well with transfers at both locations IMO.

as for RBs sticking - agree.... also disturbing how bare that cupboard was (aside from Ozigbo) when SF got here.

Ya, I didn't think RB was that bad when you looked at DB and WR. But there's only one of those spots who has helped themselves out first two recruiting cycles, and that's Fisher.

 

[Huskerpilk]

RB's by nature want to be the man. The problem may be that these guys all saw themselves as the next great back only to find themselves buried. I guess RB by committee might be a way to keep people interested. Could this all be a coincidental set of circumstances vs. a troubling trend? Time will sort it out I guess.

 

[Oklahusker]

Upon arrival to each respective school, Frost found:

Nebraska - A crumbling administration, no continuity of coaches, and two decades of lo

People jumped on me when I said that Frost formerly had a good team in a crappy conference and now he has a crappy team in a really elite conference. But I stand by that sentiment.

It's not that the AAC is some bush league, NAIA-level conference. But it's not exactly the Big Ten or SEC, either. I keep saying it's the same logic as to why Boise State could whip up on a bunch of MTW/WAC teams and then beat Oklahoma in the one tough game they played all year. It really does hold true for UCF as well.

The other piece of this argument is the rank-and-file members of the Power 5 conferences. It's hard enough playing a team like Ohio State. It's even harder playing them after you've gotten beaten around by Iowa, Michigan State or Purdue for umpteen weeks. That's just the nature of Big Ten football. The AAC has some good teams, sure, but it's a lot easier to look good against teams like Houston when you fill the gaps with UConn or Temple. Harder to look like champs against Michigan after you've just knocked skulls with a bunch of 365 lb linemen at Minnesota or Wisconsin.

Underrated response.

 

[Oklahusker]

Upon arrival to each respective school, Frost found:

Nebraska - A crumbling administration, no continuity of coaches, and two decades of lo

Underrated response.

Im not sure why that text is above his post. I backspaced all of that.

 

[Californication]

Had a great conversation this weekend with some people that have some great tradition within the Nebraska football family. We started talking about things, and the "roster flip" that gets brought up so much here was brought up. I will leave some of what was said to privacy, but i'm curious the thoughts here now that over 70% of the roster is Frost guys.

For me, I think we flipped the heck out of the roster, and we are so young that a lot of these guys are learning how to be college student-athletes. I do think that's part of our issues, and guys like Cam Jurgens, Ethan Piper, Garrett Nelson, Nick Henrich, they will all be studs for us eventually. But you look around the country and see other schools not have the same issues. In fact, one of the big reasons we were so excited about Coach Frost was that he took an 0-12 team to an 13-0 team, ending the season beating Auburn. So much has to go right for you that you can't just luck into things like that, you have to be an outstanding coach. But it got me thinking when we were hashing this out this weekend, we have heard things like "UCF actually had more talent than us when they got there" or other things like that. It had me look into something....

I took a look at UCF 2016 and 2017 recruiting classes, and calculated how many starts those recruiting classes accounted for in the 2017 13-0 run:
2016 class:
Snelson - 10 starts
Johnson - 13 starts
Moore - 7 starts
Killins - 12 starts
Hill - 13 starts
2017 class:
Luyanda - 1 start
Davis - 13 starts
Anderson - 1 start
Hughes - 12 starts
Total 2017 starts from Frost recruiting classes - 82

It got me thinking, if UCF truly had more talent than what Frost saw when he was here, we had to be close to the 100s for starts from his 2018 and 2019 class, right?
2018 class:
Taylor-Britt - 7 starts
DWilliams - 1 start
Jurgens - 9 starts
2019 class:
Robinson - 9 starts
Total 2019 starts from Frost recruiting classes - 21

Disclaimer - I left Milton and Martinez out because Frost got his QB first year at both places, didn't need that skewing things one way or the other. Secondly, I realize i'm doing this experiment with 3 games left, so guys like Robinson, Jurgens, and Taylor-Britt probably gonna bring another 9 starts to things. I also know DWilliams would have been starting every game if not for getting hurt (but I didn't take that into account for UCF guys either).

So they had over 3 times the amount of starts, but let's just call it double since our season isn't over and someone could end up starting for us. Why is that? If UCF had more talent, why could more recruits come in and play right away for Frost? Are we not recruiting as well as they were at UCF? This list also doesn't include guys like Gabriel Davis who in his true freshman campaign in 2017 had 27 catches for 391 yards and 4 touchdowns.

I just found this fascinating because there's a lot of narratives out there, and they are all starting to overlap and cancel each other out. If UCF was that much better than Nebraska, why could he get twice as many starts out of his first recruiting classes? What did he say down there that resonated and got the team going that isn't working here?

Anyways, just found these stats interesting.

perhaps the BIG requires more strength and conditioning development?

 

[HuskerWeatherman]

But i'm also concerned that on the recruiting trail we are struggling a bit. 2018 class almost 50% gone already, and we are only at 13 recruits for the 2020 class when we wanted to be at close to a dozen by the time the first game came around.

I'm far from a recruiting expert, but I'm concerned that we are struggling more than a bit -- not only for our own expectations -- but in relation to the rest of the conference.

 

[N2FL]

Had a great conversation this weekend with some people that have some great tradition within the Nebraska football family. We started talking about things, and the "roster flip" that gets brought up so much here was brought up. I will leave some of what was said to privacy, but i'm curious the thoughts here now that over 70% of the roster is Frost guys.

For me, I think we flipped the heck out of the roster, and we are so young that a lot of these guys are learning how to be college student-athletes. I do think that's part of our issues, and guys like Cam Jurgens, Ethan Piper, Garrett Nelson, Nick Henrich, they will all be studs for us eventually. But you look around the country and see other schools not have the same issues. In fact, one of the big reasons we were so excited about Coach Frost was that he took an 0-12 team to an 13-0 team, ending the season beating Auburn. So much has to go right for you that you can't just luck into things like that, you have to be an outstanding coach. But it got me thinking when we were hashing this out this weekend, we have heard things like "UCF actually had more talent than us when they got there" or other things like that. It had me look into something....

I took a look at UCF 2016 and 2017 recruiting classes, and calculated how many starts those recruiting classes accounted for in the 2017 13-0 run:
2016 class:
Snelson - 10 starts
Johnson - 13 starts
Moore - 7 starts
Killins - 12 starts
Hill - 13 starts
2017 class:
Luyanda - 1 start
Davis - 13 starts
Anderson - 1 start
Hughes - 12 starts
Total 2017 starts from Frost recruiting classes - 82

It got me thinking, if UCF truly had more talent than what Frost saw when he was here, we had to be close to the 100s for starts from his 2018 and 2019 class, right?
2018 class:
Taylor-Britt - 7 starts
DWilliams - 1 start
Jurgens - 9 starts
2019 class:
Robinson - 9 starts
Total 2019 starts from Frost recruiting classes - 21

Disclaimer - I left Milton and Martinez out because Frost got his QB first year at both places, didn't need that skewing things one way or the other. Secondly, I realize i'm doing this experiment with 3 games left, so guys like Robinson, Jurgens, and Taylor-Britt probably gonna bring another 9 starts to things. I also know DWilliams would have been starting every game if not for getting hurt (but I didn't take that into account for UCF guys either).

So they had over 3 times the amount of starts, but let's just call it double since our season isn't over and someone could end up starting for us. Why is that? If UCF had more talent, why could more recruits come in and play right away for Frost? Are we not recruiting as well as they were at UCF? This list also doesn't include guys like Gabriel Davis who in his true freshman campaign in 2017 had 27 catches for 391 yards and 4 touchdowns.

I just found this fascinating because there's a lot of narratives out there, and they are all starting to overlap and cancel each other out. If UCF was that much better than Nebraska, why could he get twice as many starts out of his first recruiting classes? What did he say down there that resonated and got the team going that isn't working here?

Anyways, just found these stats interesting.

People love to bring up the "0-12 to 13-0 in two years" narrative because, hell, it's never been done before, and I'm not trying to throw water on that accomplishment at all. But some people fail to keep in mind that roster was made up of players who went 10-4 (2012), 12-1 (2013) and 9-4 (2014). A roster that had won two conference championships and the Fiesta Bowl. We're not talking about a team that was a proverbial bottom feeder in its conference like a Kansas for example.

So you're talking about the best team in that conference and probably the most talented when Frost got there. That 0-12 season was an outlier and there were extenuating circumstances that led to that season. That roster had a culture of winning already. A roster that was used to winning and knew the work it took to win. That roster had players on it who had waited their turn and benefited from S&C and the gradual process of growing through the roster.

Frost didn't have to rebuild that program from the ground-up like he is now. At Nebraska, he's sitting and redshirting/developing guys who'll be the foundation going forward. At UCF, that core foundation and culture was already in place. He was able to plug and play some players that he otherwise would have redshirted and groomed (and saved in some ways) for when the team was better built.

I firmly believe that guys like Rahmir Johnson and Darien Chase (and probably others) would have played as true freshmen for Frosts 2017 UCF team. That team was in a much better position in every way when Frost took over in 2016 than Nebraska was when he took over.

 

[Maverick]

People love to bring up the "0-12 to 13-0 in two years" narrative because, hell, it's never been done before, and I'm not trying to throw water on that accomplishment at all. But some people fail to keep in mind that roster was made up of players who went 10-4 (2012), 12-1 (2013) and 9-4 (2014). A roster that had won two conference championships and the Fiesta Bowl. We're not talking about a team that was a proverbial bottom feeder in its conference like a Kansas for example.

So you're talking about the best team in that conference and probably the most talented when Frost got there. That 0-12 season was an outlier and there were extenuating circumstances that led to that season. That roster had a culture of winning already. A roster that was used to winning and knew the work it took to win. That roster had players on it who had waited their turn and benefited from S&C and the gradual process of growing through the roster.

Frost didn't have to rebuild that program from the ground-up like he is now. At Nebraska, he's sitting and redshirting/developing guys who'll be the foundation going forward. At UCF, that core foundation and culture was already in place. He was able to plug and play some players that he otherwise would have redshirted and groomed (and saved in some ways) for when the team was better built.

I firmly believe that guys like Rahmir Johnson and Darien Chase (and probably others) would have played as true freshmen for Frosts 2017 UCF team. That team was in a much better position in every way when Frost took over in 2016 than Nebraska was when he took over.

The argument about UCF has been one of my worries about hiring Frost since the beginning. I am behind him because he is our coach, and will continue to believe he has what it takes, but his UCF wins need to be taken with a grain of salt imho. Even more so, his recruiting level. That said, I've had many of those fears calmed until this year. I still think this year is a fluke mind you, but it hasn't been pretty.

 

[goodnterribles]

The argument about UCF has been one of my worries about hiring Frost since the beginning. I am behind him because he is our coach, and will continue to believe he has what it takes, but his UCF wins need to be taken with a grain of salt imho. Even more so, his recruiting level. That said, I've had many of those fears calmed until this year. I still think this year is a fluke mind you, but it hasn't been pretty.

Why should it be taken with a grain of salt? It's still unbelievably impressive what he did there. It doesn't mean we should expect 13-0 anytime soon, but it does show what this staff is capable of.

 

[Maverick]

Why should it be taken with a grain of salt? It's still unbelievably impressive what he did there. It doesn't mean we should expect 13-0 anytime soon, but it does show what this staff is capable of.

Because there are a lot of extenuating circumstances. Like the coach that started the 0-12 was forced to take over the AD position splitting his time. The guy who took over was terrible, but also an interim. The players were hungry for wins on their own in a conference they knew they could dominate. And the recruiting, while clearly somewhat important based on ***'s numbers, was easier but less important to the roster meaning some of his success may have been similar to Pelini's at the beginning.

Again, I don't think he is a bad coach. I just don't think there is enough evidence yet to assume he is the one that will fix Nebraska and we might have hired someone a bit too green again.

 

[goodnterribles]

Because there are a lot of extenuating circumstances. Like the coach that started the 0-12 was forced to take over the AD position splitting his time. The guy who took over was terrible, but also an interim. The players were hungry for wins on their own in a conference they knew they could dominate. And the recruiting, while clearly somewhat important based on ***'s numbers, was easier but less important to the roster meaning some of his success may have been similar to Pelini's at the beginning.

Again, I don't think he is a bad coach. I just don't think there is enough evidence yet to assume he is the one that will fix Nebraska and we might have hired someone a bit too green again.

He still had to do it though. And in some ways, inheriting a roster and getting them to believe in you is harder than building it from scratch. 13-0 is still 13-0, no matter the conference or circumstances.

 

[Maverick]

He still had to do it though. And in some ways, inheriting a roster and getting them to believe in you is harder than building it from scratch. 13-0 is still 13-0, no matter the conference or circumstances.

13-0 is nothing to sneeze at, but what I'm getting at is we don't know currently if we have a Saban or a Chizik. There just isn't enough evidence one way or another. And while there are places where inheriting a roster can be more difficult, going 0-12 is not it.

 

[CO4NU]

I think that's a good point. He wanted a quick flip and go at UCF, for the most part. He knows he has a lot of runway in Lincoln with a 7 year contract.

But where's our Killins, Hughes, Johnson? Heck, he had a ton of guys first team all-conference year 2. Are we going to have anyone? Why could they improve Dredrick Snelson from 17 receptions/136 yards/2 touchdowns in 2016 to 10 starts in 2017 with 46 receptions/695 yards/8 touchdowns? We were begging for any WR to do that for us.

I just don't get the development lacking here and being extremely evident there.

EXCELLENT question.

 

[goodnterribles]

13-0 is nothing to sneeze at, but what I'm getting at is we don't know currently if we have a Saban or a Chizik. There just isn't enough evidence one way or another. And while there are places where inheriting a roster can be more difficult, going 0-12 is not it.

The good news is that Frost and staff will get enough time for us to find out.

 

[Californication]

Scott needs to chat up Chip Kelley. How he turned UCLA from where it started the season to now is incredible.