Some might disagree, but I think the first step back to relevance in college football is to finally win 8 games in a regular season, which NU hasn't done since 2016. Then over the next 3 or 4 years, establish 8 wins as an absolute floor and go from there.
The question then, is how does coach Rhule (like it or not, he's going to be around awhile) get that done?
No one really knows, but I took a look at the years since joining the Big Ten and found something I think is interesting.
Here's a table of winning percentages for each week in the season, excluding 2020, the COVID year.
View attachment 124714
I divided the season into triads, mostly because the first 3 games are (or should be) cakewalks and November, for some reason, has been brutal. Statistically then, NU's record per triad is 3-1, 2-2, 1-3. That's a 6-6 season. Keep in mind, the last time NU actually won at least 6 games was 2016.
[Edit - oops, we did it the last two years, 6 in '24 and 7 in '25]
Take a look at week 9, typically (but not always, due to how byes are scheduled) the first game in November. NU has won 3 games in week 9 since joining the conference, the last was in 2014, a 35-14 win against Purdue in Lincoln. First, that stat has to change. Next, NU needs to beat Iowa at least 50% of the time.
So, how do we win 8 games in 2026?
Triad 1 (4-0)
Win all 3 cupcake games and beat Michigan State in East Lansing.
Triad 2 (2-2)
Beat Maryland and Washington, both in Lincoln.
Triad 3 (2-2)
Wins at Rutgers and at Iowa.
Personally, I just don't see it happening this year. Hope I'm wrong.
GBR