The Road to Eight Wins

[Bigger Ed]

Some might disagree, but I think the first step back to relevance in college football is to finally win 8 games in a regular season, which NU hasn't done since 2016. Then over the next 3 or 4 years, establish 8 wins as an absolute floor and go from there.

The question then, is how does coach Rhule (like it or not, he's going to be around awhile) get that done?
No one really knows, but I took a look at the years since joining the Big Ten and found something I think is interesting.

Here's a table of winning percentages for each week in the season, excluding 2020, the COVID year.

I divided the season into triads, mostly because the first 3 games are (or should be) cakewalks and November, for some reason, has been brutal. Statistically then, NU's record per triad is 3-1, 2-2, 1-3. That's a 6-6 season. Keep in mind, the last time NU actually won at least 6 games was 2016. [Edit - oops, we did it the last two years, 6 in '24 and 7 in '25]

Take a look at week 9, typically (but not always, due to how byes are scheduled) the first game in November. NU has won 3 games in week 9 since joining the conference, the last was in 2014, a 35-14 win against Purdue in Lincoln. First, that stat has to change. Next, NU needs to beat Iowa at least 50% of the time.

So, how do we win 8 games in 2026?

Triad 1 (4-0)
Win all 3 cupcake games and beat Michigan State in East Lansing.

Triad 2 (2-2)
Beat Maryland and Washington, both in Lincoln.

Triad 3 (2-2)
Wins at Rutgers and at Iowa.

Personally, I just don't see it happening this year. Hope I'm wrong.
GBR

 

[BleedinHuskerRed]

Some might disagree, but I think the first step back to relevance in college football is to finally win 8 games in a regular season, which NU hasn't done since 2016. Then over the next 3 or 4 years, establish 8 wins as an absolute floor and go from there.

The question then, is how does coach Rhule (like it or not, he's going to be around awhile) get that done?
No one really knows, but I took a look at the years since joining the Big Ten and found something I think is interesting.

Here's a table of winning percentages for each week in the season, excluding 2020, the COVID year.

View attachment 124714

I divided the season into triads, mostly because the first 3 games are (or should be) cakewalks and November, for some reason, has been brutal. Statistically then, NU's record per triad is 3-1, 2-2, 1-3. That's a 6-6 season. Keep in mind, the last time NU actually won at least 6 games was 2016.

Take a look at week 9, typically (but not always, due to how byes are scheduled) the first game in November. NU has won 3 games in week 9 since joining the conference, the last was in 2014, a 35-14 win against Purdue in Lincoln. First, that stat has to change. Next, NU needs to beat Iowa at least 50% of the time.

So, how do we win 8 games in 2026?

Triad 1 (4-0)
Win all 3 cupcake games and beat Michigan State in East Lansing.

Triad 2 (2-2)
Beat Maryland and Washington, both in Lincoln.

Triad 3 (2-2)
Wins at Rutgers and at Iowa.

Personally, I just don't see it happening this year. Hope I'm wrong.
GBR

There is a path.

 

[Husker In Oklahoma]

Michigan State is crucial. Have to win that game. A loss there puts you behind. That’s one of the so called winnable games. Have to start there and go forward. Need to spring a few upsets. Rhule has to start winning, he has to become a better coach somehow.

 

[wcbsas]

Some might disagree, but I think the first step back to relevance in college football is to finally win 8 games in a regular season, which NU hasn't done since 2016. Then over the next 3 or 4 years, establish 8 wins as an absolute floor and go from there.

The question then, is how does coach Rhule (like it or not, he's going to be around awhile) get that done?
No one really knows, but I took a look at the years since joining the Big Ten and found something I think is interesting.

Here's a table of winning percentages for each week in the season, excluding 2020, the COVID year.

View attachment 124714

I divided the season into triads, mostly because the first 3 games are (or should be) cakewalks and November, for some reason, has been brutal. Statistically then, NU's record per triad is 3-1, 2-2, 1-3. That's a 6-6 season. Keep in mind, the last time NU actually won at least 6 games was 2016.

Take a look at week 9, typically (but not always, due to how byes are scheduled) the first game in November. NU has won 3 games in week 9 since joining the conference, the last was in 2014, a 35-14 win against Purdue in Lincoln. First, that stat has to change. Next, NU needs to beat Iowa at least 50% of the time.

So, how do we win 8 games in 2026?

Triad 1 (4-0)
Win all 3 cupcake games and beat Michigan State in East Lansing.

Triad 2 (2-2)
Beat Maryland and Washington, both in Lincoln.

Triad 3 (2-2)
Wins at Rutgers and at Iowa.

Personally, I just don't see it happening this year. Hope I'm wrong.
GBR

I love your math ... and the logic is hard to argue.

Looking at the first triad over that time period (since 2016):

2025 - won all 3 non-conference games and lost to Michigan
2024 - won all 3 non-conference games and lost to Illinois
2023 - lost season opener to Minnesota (10-13), lost to CU (at CU), won other two non-conference games
2022 - lost season opener in Ireland to NW (28-31), lost to OU & Georgia Southern, won non-conference game
2021 - lost season opener to Illinois (22-30), lost to OU, won other two non-conference games
2019 - lost to CU in OT (31-34), won other two non-conference games, beat Illinois
2018 - lost all 4 games, two to CU and Troy, two to Michigan and Purdue
2017 - won first non-conference game, lost to Oregon (non-conference) and Northern Illinois, beat Rutgers
2016 - won all four games (including Oregon non-con) and Northwestern

Those 9 years overall first triad record was 20-16
The non-conference record during the first triad was 17-9. Losses were to:

• Oregon (1)
• Oklahoma (2)
• CU (3)
• Georgia Southern
• Northern Illinois
• Troy

We've open the season 3 times with conference games and lost all 3 (Minnesota, Illinois and Northwestern).

The other four losses are conference games in week 3 or 4. Those losses were to Michigan (2), Illinois and Purdue. We won 3 conference games in the first triad during this span.

So our overall record in conference games in the first triad is 4-3 not counting season opener games and 4-6 with season opener games.

How to get better?

1. Don't EVER lose Troy, Northern Illinois and Georgia Southern games. Rhule is 8-1 in non-conference games albeit only having played 2 P4 games.
2. Be better in season opener conference games. We are 3-6 in season openers. Even a 2 game improvement is significant.

 

[HuskerSuperGenius]

Some might disagree, but I think the first step back to relevance in college football is to finally win 8 games in a regular season, which NU hasn't done since 2016. Then over the next 3 or 4 years, establish 8 wins as an absolute floor and go from there.

The question then, is how does coach Rhule (like it or not, he's going to be around awhile) get that done?
No one really knows, but I took a look at the years since joining the Big Ten and found something I think is interesting.

Here's a table of winning percentages for each week in the season, excluding 2020, the COVID year.

View attachment 124714

I divided the season into triads, mostly because the first 3 games are (or should be) cakewalks and November, for some reason, has been brutal. Statistically then, NU's record per triad is 3-1, 2-2, 1-3. That's a 6-6 season. Keep in mind, the last time NU actually won at least 6 games was 2016.

Take a look at week 9, typically (but not always, due to how byes are scheduled) the first game in November. NU has won 3 games in week 9 since joining the conference, the last was in 2014, a 35-14 win against Purdue in Lincoln. First, that stat has to change. Next, NU needs to beat Iowa at least 50% of the time.

So, how do we win 8 games in 2026?

Triad 1 (4-0)
Win all 3 cupcake games and beat Michigan State in East Lansing.

Triad 2 (2-2)
Beat Maryland and Washington, both in Lincoln.

Triad 3 (2-2)
Wins at Rutgers and at Iowa.

Personally, I just don't see it happening this year. Hope I'm wrong.
GBR

Well there is the path, but how to accomplish this path?
1. have better players than those teams:
I looked at the rankings from ON3 and Rivals for the TP players and 2026 recruits for DONU and for these teams here are the numbers:

TP rank 2026 Recruit Rank

DONU 33rd 87th
MSU 61st 57th
Maryland 37th 40th
Washington 56th 14th
Rutgers 50th 37th
Iowa 47th 26th

So there would not appear to be an overt difference in talent between DONU and the five teams we need to beat to get to eight wins, thus talent alone at DONU will not be the determining factor in an eight win season.

2. "steal wins"
By this I mean getting win the old fashion way: defense, steal teams and turnover margin.
We start off down one in my book by changing our ST coach and losing our proven dynamic ST returner (Williams). Yes, we MAY have replacements on our roster but that is different than knowing you have that unique talent.
We have not been good at TO creation since Pelini's year as DC in 2003, so it's hard to believe that this is going to change soon, especially since the two things that create this; 1) hard hits (almost outlawed by NCAA) and 2) pass rush (sadly missing since SUH graduated).
We lack that SUH inside push that makes for a dominating pass rush, rush ends can only do so much as we have seen the last few years.

3. "out coach your rivals"
This obviously the Iowa model where you scout your opponent, see what he does best, take it away from him, and then after making great half time adjustments, win in the 4th quarter.
HCMR has had several opportunities to win games with good clock management, proper field management and has yet to come away with many one score wins.

Since it is clear in the BIG that DONU will not have the NIL budget to have dominant talent, to get to 8 or 9+ wins being able to do #2 AND #3 listed here are mandatory skills.

Those skill can be:
-innate
-Learned at coaching clinics
-taught by mentors
-aquired by/through assistant coaches
-totally lacking: if this is true then season 4 will tell us much.

 

[wcbsas]

Well there is the path, but how to accomplish this path?
1. have better players than those teams:
I looked at the rankings from ON3 and Rivals for the TP players and 2026 recruits for DONU and for these teams here are the numbers:

TP rank 2026 Recruit Rank

DONU 33rd 87th
MSU 61st 57th
Maryland 37th 40th
Washington 56th 14th
Rutgers 50th 37th
Iowa 47th 26th

So there would not appear to be an overt difference in talent between DONU and the five teams we need to beat to get to eight wins, thus talent alone at DONU will not be the determining factor in an eight win season.

2. "steal wins"
By this I mean getting win the old fashion way: defense, steal teams and turnover margin.
We start off down one in my book by changing our ST coach and losing our proven dynamic ST returner (Williams). Yes, we MAY have replacements on our roster but that is different than knowing you have that unique talent.
We have not been good at TO creation since Pelini's year as DC in 2003, so it's hard to believe that this is going to change soon, especially since the two things that create this; 1) hard hits (almost outlawed by NCAA) and 2) pass rush (sadly missing since SUH graduated).
We lack that SUH inside push that makes for a dominating pass rush, rush ends can only do so much as we have seen the last few years.

3. "out coach your rivals"
This obviously the Iowa model where you scout your opponent, see what he does best, take it away from him, and then after making great half time adjustments, win in the 4th quarter.
HCMR has had several opportunities to win games with good clock management, proper field management and has yet to come away with many one score wins.

Since it is clear in the BIG that DONU will not have the NIL budget to have dominant talent, to get to 8 or 9+ wins being able to do #2 AND #3 listed here are mandatory skills.

Those skill can be:
-innate
-Learned at coaching clinics
-taught by mentors
-aquired by/through assistant coaches
-totally lacking: if this is true then season 4 will tell us much.

We don’t necessarily have to “steal wins” to get to 8+ wins/season.
We simply have to be better in fundamentals, in all phases of the game.

Our NIL may not challenge Oregon or tOSU but it is as good or better than Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa.

We pay top tier coaching salaries … so we should never be out coached.

Just start with don’t lose games you shouldn’t lose.

1. Don’t lose to non-P4 teams

2. Do better against the middle class of the B1G … Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin. Over the last nine years we are 2-7 vs Minnesota, 1-9 vs Iowa, 1-7 vs Wisconsin and 5-4 vs Illinois (1-4 in our last 5 games).

If we simply played 0.500 in those conference games and won all of our non-P4 non-conference games that would be 12 additional wins over 9 seasons … 1.5 more wins every season … there’s your 8+ wins per year.

 

[Bigger Ed]

Well there is the path, but how to accomplish this path?
1. have better players than those teams:
I looked at the rankings from ON3 and Rivals for the TP players and 2026 recruits for DONU and for these teams here are the numbers:

TP rank 2026 Recruit Rank

DONU 33rd 87th
MSU 61st 57th
Maryland 37th 40th
Washington 56th 14th
Rutgers 50th 37th
Iowa 47th 26th

So there would not appear to be an overt difference in talent between DONU and the five teams we need to beat to get to eight wins, thus talent alone at DONU will not be the determining factor in an eight win season.

2. "steal wins"
By this I mean getting win the old fashion way: defense, steal teams and turnover margin.
We start off down one in my book by changing our ST coach and losing our proven dynamic ST returner (Williams). Yes, we MAY have replacements on our roster but that is different than knowing you have that unique talent.
We have not been good at TO creation since Pelini's year as DC in 2003, so it's hard to believe that this is going to change soon, especially since the two things that create this; 1) hard hits (almost outlawed by NCAA) and 2) pass rush (sadly missing since SUH graduated).
We lack that SUH inside push that makes for a dominating pass rush, rush ends can only do so much as we have seen the last few years.

3. "out coach your rivals"
This obviously the Iowa model where you scout your opponent, see what he does best, take it away from him, and then after making great half time adjustments, win in the 4th quarter.
HCMR has had several opportunities to win games with good clock management, proper field management and has yet to come away with many one score wins.

Since it is clear in the BIG that DONU will not have the NIL budget to have dominant talent, to get to 8 or 9+ wins being able to do #2 AND #3 listed here are mandatory skills.

Those skill can be:
-innate
-Learned at coaching clinics
-taught by mentors
-aquired by/through assistant coaches
-totally lacking: if this is true then season 4 will tell us much.

1. I think the '26 recruit rank is irrelevant to the '26 season. Maybe relevant in '28 but with xfer portal as it is, who knows.

2. I agree TO ratio is a problem. I've said it over and over and I'll say it again, a +1 turnover almost guarantees a winning season. With the exception of Rhule's first year, (an abomination, TO-wise) there's been steady improvement of the last 5 years, but it must continue to improve.
'25 +2 (60) - note: Indiana ranked #1 with +21!
'24 -2 (73)
'23 -17 (132)
'22 -3 (92)
'21 -5 (95)

3. It is what it is. I get the impression we have a coach who wants mentor, not be mentored. I don't see game management getting much better anytime soon.

 

[HuskerSuperGenius]

We don’t necessarily have to “steal wins” to get to 8+ wins/season.
We simply have to be better in fundamentals, in all phases of the game.

Our NIL may not challenge Oregon or tOSU but it is as good or better than Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa.

We pay top tier coaching salaries … so we should never be out coached.

Just start with don’t lose games you shouldn’t lose.

1. Don’t lose to non-P4 teams

2. Do better against the middle class of the B1G … Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin. Over the last nine years we are 2-7 vs Minnesota, 1-9 vs Iowa, 1-7 vs Wisconsin and 5-4 vs Illinois (1-4 in our last 5 games).

If we simply played 0.500 in those conference games and won all of our non-P4 non-conference games that would be 12 additional wins over 9 seasons … 1.5 more wins every season … there’s your 8+ wins per year.

I get the highlighted.

Now tell me YOUR method for HOW you do that, not losing games you should nt lose.

I gave you my methods.

Starting that you "should not lose" is not enough, you have to have a plan to accomplish that goal.

 

[Bigger Ed]

I get the highlighted.

Now tell me YOUR method for HOW you do that, not losing games you should nt lose.

I gave you my methods.

Starting that you "should not lose" is not enough, you have to have a plan to accomplish that goal.

If I knew the answers, I'd be a coach, and a well-paid one at that. I don't pretend to have the answers. My goal was to identify the problem in a unique way, so it couldn't be said I was just bitching and whining.

 

[wcbsas]

I get the highlighted.

Now tell me YOUR method for HOW you do that, not losing games you should nt lose.

I gave you my methods.

Starting that you "should not lose" is not enough, you have to have a plan to accomplish that goal.

Fair enough …

#1 Be better on non-kicking part of special teams. Sustain progress made under Ekeler.

#2 Be better on the offensive line of scrimmage. Start by getting better coaching (hopefully that is done). Become more of a slobber-knocker team - winning games by grinding out yards much like Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois.

#3 I agree on improving the TO-ratio. Some of that is coaching and scheme. Some of that is just being better in the other phases of the game such as pass rush and tackling.

#4 Philosophically I would play a lot of press coverage. If you let WRs get a head start, I believe you put yourself at a disadvantage, that “philosophy” hopefully helps with INTs.

 

[wcbsas]

3. It is what it is. I get the impression we have a coach who wants mentor, not be mentored. I don't see game management getting much better anytime soon.

Not sure I agree.

HCMR has:

(a) shown willingness to change and add coaching talent. Especially at the coordinator level.

(b) he has Phil Snow who I think he’s there to specifically support HCMR.

 

[BleedinHuskerRed]

Not sure I agree.

HCMR has:

(a) shown willingness to change and add coaching talent. Especially at the coordinator level.

(b) he has Phil Snow who I think he’s there to specifically support HCMR.

Agreed, and I think the best mentors are those that know that they too always will benefit from mentoring.

 

[Hooked on Huskers]

Win all 3 cupcake games and beat Michigan State in East Lansing.

Beat Maryland and Washington, both in Lincoln.

Michigan State is not a cupcake. In Lansing. Plus new HC, Pat Fitzgerald

Beat Washington? Not likely ....

Best scenario IMO, 6W-6L . Thank god no Tennessee Vols schedule ..... replacement, Bowling Green

Also keep in mind powerful North Dakota schedule . (not North Dakota State Bison !!)

 

[Bigger Ed]

Michigan State is not a cupcake. In Lansing. Plus new HC, Pat Fitzgerald

Beat Washington? Not likely ....

Best scenario IMO, 6W-6L . Thank god no Tennessee Vols schedule ..... replacement, Bowling Green

Also keep in mind powerful North Dakota schedule . (not North Dakota State Bison !!)

The three cupcakes are Ohio, Bowling Green, and North Dakota. If we lose to one of those teams, there's no way to win 8 games.
I was not predicting 8 wins. I was examining, in what I think is a unique way, what had to be done to get to 8. I agree re: 6 wins.

 

[CynicalHusker]

Eight wins would be a significant accomplishment but HCMR couldn't achieve this with much easier schedules the past two years. 5-7 is most likely, 6-6 is the HCMR ceiling this year.