Super Conference

[BGRed]

It’s a great example of what college football could look like every week if you got rid of FCS and lower FBS. Every single week there would be 30 great games instead of 10

At first glance, perhaps the middle of the pack games become less appealing as the season rolls on; but, each game would be a factor in where you land in next year's grouping and schedule. In my Nebraska example, you would not know the 2026 schedule until the last game of the 2025 season and into the playoffs for the top two teams in the group.

I quickly looked at how the 2026 schedule would change if the simulated one-point win over Clemson on the final weekend ended up as a loss. To avoid building a complex computer ranking system, I simply ranked the teams by record and then by points allowed. This resulted in Clemson and Nebraska just switching spots in the rankings. They'd be in the same Grouping as before; but, now as the #7 seed, Nebraska's schedule gets harder in the first half (playing teams #1-#6) and easier in the second half (teams #8-12) plus Cincinnati cross-over instead of Auburn.

But, say Nebraska and Cincinnati happened to switch Groupings because of how the rankings shake out, the schedule is entirely different. Fans and websites could be tracking/projecting this each week as another thing to follow.

 

[DuckTownHusker]

It’s a great example of what college football could look like every week if you got rid of FCS and lower FBS. Every single week there would be 30 great games instead of 10

So basically the NFL.

Execept that eventually, even in that model, somebody becomes the Patriots and somebody becomes the Browns.

There will always be haves and have-nots.

 

[WestTexasHusker]

Slightly off topic, but in this ever-evolving quest to tweak and expand the playoffs...FBS already had a playoff, and it started the first game of the season. At the end of the season, there were a couple of unbeatens, and they squared off at one of the bowls. Sure, there was controversy about 1 or 2 that didn't make the invite, but it was usually pretty clear who the top 2 were. This made the entirety of the season very important. No slip-ups. When we beat OU in the 2001 at home in October, it was accepted that we were heading to the NC game if we could win out. And had OU won, it would have been them.

The beauty of this is, even if you didn't make the NC, you went to a nice bowl, and if you won, it was a big boost for your program and everyone felt good through the winter. Alamo Bowl, Orange, whatever. You win your bowl, everyone's happy.

Not anymore. All of FBS is chasing the big game. It doesn't matter what I think, but what I do think is, we lost something very special with college football and replaced it with an inferior product. Still worth watching, but the pageantry is gone. It's just NFL Lite.

 

[BGRed]

So basically the NFL.

Execept that eventually, even in that model, somebody becomes the Patriots and somebody becomes the Browns.

There will always be haves and have-nots.

Yes, the Big Two are talking about a Super Conference already. I don't really like the idea and would rather see everything go back to regional, smaller conferences. But, if what seems like an inevitable outcome happens, this would be one way to mix things up a bit without the regional biases that seem to be in place today.

Also, are you suggesting that college football does not already see "haves and have nots"?

 

[BGRed]

Slightly off topic, but in this ever-evolving quest to tweak and expand the playoffs...FBS already had a playoff, and it started the first game of the season. At the end of the season, there were a couple of unbeatens, and they squared off at one of the bowls. Sure, there was controversy about 1 or 2 that didn't make the invite, but it was usually pretty clear who the top 2 were. This made the entirety of the season very important. No slip-ups. When we beat OU in the 2001 at home in October, it was accepted that we were heading to the NC game if we could win out. And had OU won, it would have been them.

The beauty of this is, even if you didn't make the NC, you went to a nice bowl, and if you won, it was a big boost for your program and everyone felt good through the winter. Alamo Bowl, Orange, whatever. You win your bowl, everyone's happy.

Not anymore. All of FBS is chasing the big game. It doesn't matter what I think, but what I do think is, we lost something very special with college football and replaced it with an inferior product. Still worth watching, but the pageantry is gone. It's just NFL Lite.

I agree with this nearly 100%. The only caveat is that I did like the computer piece of the BCS to help lessen bias for certain teams. I feel like college football is heading the way of NASCAR, where corporate money and change in the underlying product has resulted in TV revenue and attendance to be about half of what it was at the peak.

My little simulation exercise was more of a "if this is going to happen, what would be interesting for me as a fan?". The Big Two setting up new regional divisions of a Super Conference is basically the status quo packaged up differently. The Big Programs will always be the ones most likely to play for the big prize at the end, so why not get more entertaining matchups for the average fan throughout the year? Just my

 

[WestTexasHusker]

I agree with this nearly 100%. The only caveat is that I did like the computer piece of the BCS to help lessen bias for certain teams. I feel like college football is heading the way of NASCAR, where corporate money and change in the underlying product has resulted in TV revenue and attendance to be about half of what it was at the peak.

My little simulation exercise was more of a "if this is going to happen, what would be interesting for me as a fan?". The Big Two setting up new regional divisions of a Super Conference is basically the status quo packaged up differently. The Big Programs will always be the ones most likely to play for the big prize at the end, so why not get more entertaining matchups for the average fan throughout the year? Just my

Yeah I agree. So I'm not familiar with NASCAR. What did they do again? Is NASCAR still a thing?

 

[DuckTownHusker]

Also, are you suggesting that college football does not already see "haves and have nots"?

No. Just that some people think an NFL Super League would solve that problem - and it won't.

(Not saying you specifically thought that)

 

[WestTexasHusker]

No. Just that some people think an NFL Super League would solve that problem - and it won't.

(Not saying you specifically thought that)

Yeah good point. Most of the major leagues throughout the world - Formula One, NFL, NBA, MLS, etc. - have guardrails to ensure parity and the preservation of broad fan interest. I recall Ferrari was winning F1 races like crazy, year after year, and F1 finally put a max annual budget on each team, radically changed rules such as tire changes, engines, etc., to clip Ferrari's wings. It worked.

College football doesn't have a national czar anymore to keep things under control, so you have egomaniacs that have ascended to the top of each conference, all fighting for themselves only. Of course, none of those guys care one whit about the long-term health of college football - they'll freely admit that much. They're just trying to consolidate power and cut themselves ever fatter hogs.

 

[BGRed]

I've updated potential 2026 schedules using current Massey composite rankings. Showing Nebraska, Iowa, and Iowa State for comparisons. I'm curious if people would rather see scheduling as is currently done (with lower level guarantee games) or would rather see more difficult competition knowing that the record will suffer?

 

[WestTexasHusker]

I've updated potential 2026 schedules using current Massey composite rankings. Showing Nebraska, Iowa, and Iowa State for comparisons. I'm curious if people would rather see scheduling as is currently done (with lower level guarantee games) or would rather see more difficult competition knowing that the record will suffer?

View attachment 120654

Seems like the fan bases want cupcake games to pad the records. Gives a false sense of accomplishment. Kind of like playing teams with interim coaches.

 

[BGRed]

Updated potential balanced schedules under a "blow up the conferences" approach. Nebraska falls to #50 overall, which places them as a 7th "seed" in building out the divisions. Being a team in #7-#12 spots means you play the top 6 teams in your division the first half of the season and play the other bottom 5 teams in the second half. For comparison, Iowa is a #3 "seed" and Iowa State a #5, so they both would play easier games at the beginning and then try to run the gauntlet of top half teams in the second half

No real cupcakes --

 

[BGRed]

For those still interested, here's a refresher with all the CFP PR about tough schedules, easy schedules, good losses, bad losses, conference strength/weakness, autobids and all of that... this would blow up the conferences and create 12 fairly equal groupings for the following season based on current season results & a set of computer rankings. For this breakdown, I used the Massey Composite of 81 systems. Each season, the groupings change based on results. With all the money and the way conferences are realigning today, I'm discounting travel costs as a factor.

Groupings for next year are the 67 P4 conference members, Notre Dame, U Conn, Wash State, and Oregon St + the top G5 team (Tulane). Teams are put into six groups of twelve teams based on S-curve, with the twelve playoff teams getting slotted in base on the round they lose in the playoffs. Teams play the 11 other teams in their own Group plus one pre-determined crossover game against a team in similar position in the partner group. I have set the schedule so that the top six teams play each other and the bottom six play each other in the final five weeks of the season.

Still go with a 12 team playoff, top two teams from each group make the playoff. Highest ranked 4 of the 6 group winners get the bye. Group winners ranked 5 & 6 plus top two second place winners host first round games. Every team has a theoretically equal shot at making the playoffs every season.

Bottom team in each grouping drops to Tier 2, top team from each grouping in Tier 2 moves up. Tier 2 would be the current Group of 5 plus need to pull up 8 current FCS teams for the initial season.

For examples - here are the theoretical Nebraska, Iowa, and Iowa State schedules.

 

[BGRed]

For anyone that has been interested - post bowl game rankings shift the groupings. Since Rankings are computer-based, final rankings could shift a little based on results in the Semis and Finals.

Huskers would be ranked 7th in Group 5 (and play 7th place team from group 6 in the crossover). The bottom 6 play the top 6 in the first half of the season and the bottom 6 would then play the rest of the bottom 6 at the end. For comparison, I am showing Iowa and Iowa State, who are both in the Top 6 of their groups.

 

[BGRed]

I could just let this die if nobody is interested. I did update after the playoffs and the groupings changed. I was talking to a friend about this and told him I'd try to simulate the season by asking Google AI to use ESPN's FPI and a small randomization factor. I'd do this each week as real games affect the FPI ratings. Nebraska's schedule and first week's results for the group is below. I've done the entire first week for all teams. If people are interested, just give this a thumbs up. If you'd rather not see it again, I guess choose the pile of poo emoji.

 

[WestTexasHusker]

All of this makes way too much sense.

Unfortunately, it takes power away from the big boys, and they aren't having any of that. The best that the rest of the programs can do is ride their coattails and say "yeah we are with them."