Super Conference

[NU_Alum]

Regardless of the model, we are down to about 8 programs that will compete for national titles. The $200 million budget club. And then another $100 million beyond that, that doesn't get included in the official budget.

These select few programs are running fully professional teams. Everyone else is playing exhibition games.

I think it's a little bigger than 8, but the real NC caliber teams have never numbered more than that before. Probably 3-4 in the SEC and 3-4 in the B1G. Add 1-2 in the ACC and ND and those have always been the schools competing for NC's.

Once in awhile you'd get BYU for a year or UCF going undefeated once, and some of that will still happen when a team catches lightning in a bottle.

 

[CrnhskrBob]

As I understand it, this idea has been getting kicked around for a while. But it would require the P2 to sign off on, and why would they? From my perspective, this is already dead.

As said, too many mediocre teams getting in. Again, who will watch those games with mediocre teams? Again, saturated!

 

[goodnterribles]

As said, too many mediocre teams getting in. Again, who will watch those games with mediocre teams? Again, saturated!

I know it's not quite the same, but tons of people watch March Madness. You dont think people would tune in to watch Ohio State play some underdog in a playoff? I would, at least until it got out of hand.

 

[WestTexasHusker]

As I understand it, this idea has been getting kicked around for a while. But it would require the P2 to sign off on, and why would they? From my perspective, this is already dead.

Because the P2 still needs the other 2. If they didn't, they'd have already gone bye bye. I talked to a fairly high CBS Sports guys probably 18 months ago after a presentation on another, yet related matter, and he told me there's no overall media interest in anything below 70 or so for two reasons: 1) Sports viewers want variety, drama, and Cinderella stories. 2)Media wants to be in every US household.

The Big 10 and SEC may decide it's still best to break off and have their own party, but there will remain viewership for ACC and Big 12, even G5. So in the end, it will all work out as it should, one way or the other.

 

[BubbaGene]

bump

 

[Hville]

Because the P2 still needs the other 2. If they didn't, they'd have already gone bye bye. I talked to a fairly high CBS Sports guys probably 18 months ago after a presentation on another, yet related matter, and he told me there's no overall media interest in anything below 70 or so for two reasons: 1) Sports viewers want variety, drama, and Cinderella stories. 2)Media wants to be in every US household.

The Big 10 and SEC may decide it's still best to break off and have their own party, but there will remain viewership for ACC and Big 12, even G5. So in the end, it will all work out as it should, one way or the other.

Read an article awhile back saying exactly what you explained in the first paragraph. The major networks want to fill all the time slots they want to be able to air the top 30 games each week in them. Right now they are filling them with a lot of games from the bottom 70 and even non conference FCS games. They aren't interested in a 32 game conference where there are only about 14 games a week played.

 

[WestTexasHusker]

Read an article awhile back saying exactly what you explained in the first paragraph. The major networks want to fill all the time slots they want to be able to air the top 30 games each week in them. Right now they are filling them with a lot of games from the bottom 70 and even non conference FCS games. They aren't interested in a 32 game conference where there are only about 14 games a week played.

You are correct. Media has an insatiable demand for live sports, because live sports is about all that is left that produces consistent ratings (eyeballs), which media desperately needs to sell advertising. Heretofore, the media for live sports has been limited to CBS, Fox, NBC, ABC, and the sports channels. Turner, TNT, and others have dabbled in it. But there are a lot of new players in media that want in on the action in a much bigger way, because they know there's advertising dollars in it, and they are willing to pay handsomely for it. The $3.5 billion deal for the Big 12 wasn't because Fox and ESPN were feeling charitable one day.

No question, the Big 10 and SEC have consolidated a lot of the historically big programs, and they are going to be able to demand the most money. But the ACC and Big 12 have plenty of eyeballs themselves. There are more folks watching K-State or on a Saturday than Rutgers, Northwestern, or UCLA. Oklahoma State was one of the worst programs in P4 last year with only 1 FBS win, yet still ranked 38th nationally in viewership.

If the Big 10 and SEC opt to break off and do their own thing, that's not going to bother media and they will gladly play along. But there will still be plenty of meat on the bone for another 30-40 programs. We are still going to be at 70+ football programs on TV regularly, regardless of what the conferences do.

 

[Hville]

You are correct. Media has an insatiable demand for live sports, because live sports is about all that is left that produces consistent ratings (eyeballs), which media desperately needs to sell advertising. Heretofore, the media for live sports has been limited to CBS, Fox, NBC, ABC, and the sports channels. Turner, TNT, and others have dabbled in it. But there are a lot of new players in media that want in on the action in a much bigger way, because they know there's advertising dollars in it, and they are willing to pay handsomely for it. The $3.5 billion deal for the Big 12 wasn't because Fox and ESPN were feeling charitable one. day.

No question, the Big 10 and SEC have consolidated a lot of the historically big programs, and they are going to be able to demand the most money. But the ACC and Big 12 have plenty of eyeballs themselves. There are more folks watching K-State or on a Saturday than Rutgers, Northwestern, or UCLA. Oklahoma State was one of the worst programs in P4 last year with only 1 FBS win, yet still ranked 38th nationally in viewership.

If the Big 10 and SEC opt to break off and do their own thing, that's not going to bother media and they will gladly play along. But there will still be plenty of meat on the bone for another 30-40 programs. We are still going to be at 70+ football programs on TV regularly, regardless of what the conferences do.

The article I read basically said media don’t want a break off. They want those 70 in a single agreement. They need the diversity of that many teams and the pageantry so many different rivalries bring.

 

[WestTexasHusker]

The article I read basically said media want a break off. They want those 70 in a single agreement. They need the diversity of that many teams and the pageantry so many different rivalries.

Yeah, if the Big 10 and SEC go to, say, 20 teams a piece, you've got 40. If they break away, presumably they wouldn't have playoffs versus the rest - they would have their own playoffs and championship. But in reality, only 6 or 8 of that group of 40 is realistically in the mix, so one would think that would become thoroughly uninteresting to the casual football fan.

College football and basketball are a unique animal, quite unlike anything else in sports. Fans across the country are engaged 1because there's a D1 school in the neighborhood that is at least perceived to be in the club. Tell South Alabama and Northern Illinois fans they can't compete.

While Ohio State is king of Ohio, don't discount all of the rabid fans of Cincinnati, Toledo, Ohio, Miami OH, Kent State, Bowling Green, that are not only watching their own team, but Ohio State. If you slice out everyone except Ohio State, you do a lot of viewership destruction to Ohio State, itself, because the other teams are no longer in the club, and a lot of those viewers are butt hurt and go away as a result.

Of course, none of this is a debate to the Big Media - they know it already through their own research - which is why they are still doling out $ billions to conferences not named the Big 10 and SEC, and those numbers are going to keep rising in the future. Big Media wants inclusion, not exclusion, for maximum eyeballs and advertising dollars.

 

[Hville]

Yeah, if the Big 10 and SEC go to, say, 20 teams a piece, you've got 40. If they break away, presumably they wouldn't have playoffs versus the rest - they would have their own playoffs and championship. But in reality, only 6 or 8 of that group of 40 is realistically in the mix, so one would think that would become thoroughly uninteresting to the casual football fan.

College football and basketball are a unique animal, quite unlike anything else in sports. Fans across the country are engaged 1because there's a D1 school in the neighborhood that is at least perceived to be in the club. Tell South Alabama and Northern Illinois fans they can't compete.

While Ohio State is king of Ohio, don't discount all of the rabid fans of Cincinnati, Toledo, Ohio, Miami OH, Kent State, Bowling Green, that are not only watching their own team, but Ohio State. If you slice out everyone except Ohio State, you do a lot of viewership destruction to Ohio State, itself, because the other teams are no longer in the club, and a lot of those viewers are butt hurt and go away as a result.

Of course, none of this is a debate to the Big Media - they know it already through their own research - which is why they are still doling out $ billions to conferences not named the Big 10 and SEC, and those numbers are going to keep rising in the future. Big Media wants inclusion, not exclusion, for maximum eyeballs and advertising dollars.

You are correct regarding viewership of the lesser teams. Not everyone watching Ohio State versus Bowling green is watching because of Ohio State. I think the media wants both sides but they would prefer most of the games be within that top 70 so we see more games of Nebraska versus Kansas State rather than Akron.

 

[BGRed]

Had too much time on my hands recently and this old thread popped into my head. Currently, there are 71 current Power 4 level teams (including Notre Dame, Wash St, Oregon St, U Conn).

Travel hasn't really been a concern based on the Big Ten cross-country expansion, so why force regional groupings?
For the initial season, bring up the G5 top-ranked team and create 6 twelve-team groupings. Base the groupings for the next season on rankings at the end of the current season and teams get placed based on a snake-draft type of approach.

Each team plays all 11 of the teams in their own grouping and one preset cross-over game (Group A plays Group B, going down the order of ranking from the prior year). The top two teams from each grouping make the playoffs. The top four of the champions get the bye, the other two champions and the top two second place teams host the first round.

Maybe the bottom teams from each group get relegated to Tier 2 (also 72 teams, current G5 teams plus the top ten FCS level teams -- or just have 66 teams, play 10 games and have two cross-over games). Could have the remaining FCS teams in a Tier 3...but, I'm not going to get into that...

From each grouping, I'd have the top six play the bottom six over the first half of the season, play the cross-over game, then the final five weeks are the top six playing against each other and the bottom six playing each other.

I used the final 2024 end of season composite Massey rankings to build this out and DolphinSim to run the hypothetical 2025 season using current team rankings.

Nebraska was the #33 overall Power4 team and #6 in their grouping. Here is their Grouping and Schedule:

This was a tough break with Washington and Florida State having down years in 2024 and bouncing back in 2025. A different grouping had, for example, Virginia Tech and Purdue in the same slots.

The outcome:

Looking ahead to 2026, based on these simulated results, the new grouping and schedule (depending on how you'd feel about relegation, the bottom team is either Syracuse or promoted Kennesaw St). All teams on the list (except the cross-over) would play the same teams; except Alabama gets Oregon, Mississippi gets Georgia, A&M gets Oklahoma, Penn State plays Illinois, Pitt plays Miss State, Nebraska gets Auburn, etc...)

I think current P4 teams would need to get used to finishing with losing records more often without the G5 to pad the schedules.

 

[WestTexasHusker]

Good work.

 

[Boji Husker]

Had too much time on my hands recently and this old thread popped into my head. Currently, there are 71 current Power 4 level teams (including Notre Dame, Wash St, Oregon St, U Conn).

Travel hasn't really been a concern based on the Big Ten cross-country expansion, so why force regional groupings?
For the initial season, bring up the G5 top-ranked team and create 6 twelve-team groupings. Base the groupings for the next season on rankings at the end of the current season and teams get placed based on a snake-draft type of approach.

Each team plays all 11 of the teams in their own grouping and one preset cross-over game (Group A plays Group B, going down the order of ranking from the prior year). The top two teams from each grouping make the playoffs. The top four of the champions get the bye, the other two champions and the top two second place teams host the first round.

Maybe the bottom teams from each group get relegated to Tier 2 (also 72 teams, current G5 teams plus the top ten FCS level teams -- or just have 66 teams, play 10 games and have two cross-over games). Could have the remaining FCS teams in a Tier 3...but, I'm not going to get into that...

From each grouping, I'd have the top six play the bottom six over the first half of the season, play the cross-over game, then the final five weeks are the top six playing against each other and the bottom six playing each other.

I used the final 2024 end of season composite Massey rankings to build this out and DolphinSim to run the hypothetical 2025 season using current team rankings.

Nebraska was the #33 overall Power4 team and #6 in their grouping. Here is their Grouping and Schedule:
View attachment 120551
This was a tough break with Washington and Florida State having down years in 2024 and bouncing back in 2025. A different grouping had, for example, Virginia Tech and Purdue in the same slots.

The outcome:
View attachment 120547


Looking ahead to 2026, based on these simulated results, the new grouping and schedule (depending on how you'd feel about relegation, the bottom team is either Syracuse or promoted Kennesaw St). All teams on the list (except the cross-over) would play the same teams; except Alabama gets Oregon, Mississippi gets Georgia, A&M gets Oklahoma, Penn State plays Illinois, Pitt plays Miss State, Nebraska gets Auburn, etc...)

I think current P4 teams would need to get used to finishing with losing records more often without the G5 to pad the schedules.

View attachment 120550

Lots of work there, kudos

 

[Hville]

It’s a great example of what college football could look like every week if you got rid of FCS and lower FBS. Every single week there would be 30 great games instead of 10

 

[BGRed]

It’s a great example of what college football could look like every week if you got rid of FCS and lower FBS. Every single week there would be 30 great games instead of 10

I don't think that we'd need to "get rid of" the lower FBS and FCS. The lower FBS (which I called Tier 2 in the earlier post) would run a similar format with changing groupings each year and the group winners & runners-up would have their own playoff, with group winners also maybe having a chance at promotion if the powers-that-be would include promotion/relegation.

In my simulation, the bottom six Tear 1 teams would get replaced by the group winners from Tier 2 for the following year:

Dropping Out: Maryland, Ok State, North Carolina, Syracuse, Boston College, West Virginia

Moving Up: James Madison, South Florida, Memphis, Kennesaw, North Texas, Louisiana Tech

Note that Boise State was the only "Tier 2" team to be added to the initial year to get to 72 teams and they held onto their "Tier 1" status. In the simulation, they were in the same Grouping as Maryland and the simulation gave Boise State a 25-23 home win over the Terps on the final Saturday of the season. If promotion/relegation was part of this model, that game would have major ramifications with Maryland dropping to Tier 2 for the following season. Maryland would then be the top seed in a group for 2026 and get a schedule that looks like this and it seems likely that they'd be able to compete for a group title and promotion for the 2027 season (although attendance may drop like a rock).

If you also include the current FCS schools in the model, you could have teams like North Dakota State earning their way into Tier 1.