A couple of things to remember about the numbers.
We currently have 16 recruits. However, don't forget that Marsh greyshirted and counts towards this class and Baptiste was basically an add-on to last year. That gives us realistically 18 recruits this year. Don't forget that Heard still has not qualified as well.
The conventional wisdom is 4 more at least and perhaps 5 (if the right guys land). That would put us around 22-23. I wouldn't be surprised if we took another player or two depending on how things wrap up, but 23 seems to be the conventional number.
Every year, people always underestimate how many we will take because they are not aware of how many medicals there might be and of possible defections. There are a few academic issues amongst the pledges, but realistically, they all could qualify so that is another factor as well.
The best way to get an idea of the number is to watch very carefully for any late offers, remaining visits, and attention given to certain recruits. In other words, watch the coaches. It amazes me how often people forget to do that. If you see another LB offered, for example, that is a pretty good indication that the staff is either looking for a linebacker or there is a non-specific spot available that they think the LB could fill.
1 TE - Darien Bryant just visited and is a top priority. This class cannot be considered a 100% success without a TE.
1 or 2 DE - There are just too many good DE's on the board to think that this isn't a priority. LB Max Pirlman is visiting for Kansas, but he is being recruited as a DE. Very telling. Also don't forget, Jalen Grimble is still out there.
1 LB - Things have been quiet on this front. I don't see us turning down Juco Dexter Moody under any circumstances. Also keep in mind that Michael Rose is already verballed for 2012 and he could be a guy who could contribute early. That could affect the thinking on this year's LB recruiting.
1 DT? - Mickey Johnson is still in the mix. This tells me that another DT wouldn't hurt the coaches feelings. Question, if not Mickey, are any other DT's being pursued? Perhaps Mickey is a non-specific position target. We are otherwise solid at DT.
1 WR? - Would we turn down Patrick Onwuasor? Are their any other WRs being pursued?
1 OL? - Is Hobbi a non-specific position target? What about Mordi-Price?
1 S - I have heard we are still interested in getting one more safety. Who would it be? Wayne Lyons is the obvious first choice, but he is considered a hard catch. Who else is there? Could Davie move to safety if someone like Onwausor verbals?
23 is probably a pretty safe bet at this point. But you never know.