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RPI Projections

RedRum

RedRum

All Big 10
10 Year Member
A few weeks ago I put together a spreadsheet for RPI projections based on what we do going forward. I didn't do the Opp-Opp part of the calculation, but expected it to work slightly in our favor due to Big 10 SOS. Plugging in our record I had us 3 positions lower than the ESPN rating, so it was pretty close. So I thought I would run a few scenarios going forward. In () I will place where those points would rank us if everything stayed the same. However, RPI's for most teams are generally trending downward as win% drops.

Current RPI: .5876 (41st)

Win vs Wisconsin: .5944 (36th); Loss vs Wisconsin .5825 (50th)

Let's take that a little further into the tournament:

Scenario 1:
Win vs Wisconsin, bye, loss vs Ohio State .5898 (40th) or Northwestern .5847 (46th): A win to the next round would go around .5979 (34th)

Scenario 2:
Loss to Wisconsin, win vs NW, win vs Iowa, loss .588(41st)

Scenario 3:
Loss to Wisconsin, bye, win vs Ohio State, loss next round .5866(46th) or bye, win vs Northwestern, loss .5818 (50th)

Scenario 4:
Loss to Wisconsin, win vs NW, loss to Iowa .5794 (52nd)

Scenario 5:
Loss to Wisconsin, bye, loss to Ohio State .5786(53rd) or Northwestern .5735 (54th)

In a nutshell, we beat Wisconsin we are in. If we lose, we are going to be really tight if we don't get past the second round, but if we do we should be fine.

I am also having a hard time deciding if we want the bye or not in the event we lose to Wisconsin.
 

Thanks for the analysis RR. Under scenario 4, which is not unlikely at all, I think we're sweating bullets on Selection Sunday, and it basically comes down to whether teams like Minnesota and Florida St. did better down the stretch.
 
ChitownHusker said:
Thanks for the analysis RR. Under scenario 4, which is not unlikely at all, I think we're sweating bullets on Selection Sunday, and it basically comes down to whether teams like Minnesota and Florida St. did better down the stretch.
Click to expand...
Other than a first round loss to NW, I don't think any scenario is a for sure elimination, but you start getting to 4 or 5 and even 3 with Northwestern in the game and it is right on the edge either way and if we got in it would be the play-in game. Historically the cut-off has been around 52nd and that related to a raw RPI of around .575. I think two things are going to happen and that is other RPI scores will also drop (conference opponents records trend toward .500) and our placing will be a little better than I show. And I also think our score will be ever so slightly higher as the opp-opp will give a slight boost and I don't have that calculated.

For example, the raw score for scenario 5 would have ranked us 41st and 54th 2 years ago and 51st and 55th last year. With the points so close, that scenario that currently shows only one ranking difference could become a deciding factor.
 
Let's say we win vs. Wisconsin, then win versus Ohio State, then lose to Michigan. In that scenario could we play up to a 9 or 10 seed?
 



ChitownHusker said:
Let's say we win vs. Wisconsin, then win versus Ohio State, then lose to Michigan. In that scenario could we play up to a 9 or 10 seed?
Click to expand...

Lunardi has NU as "last 4 in" and an 11 seed. The committee will move teams up and down a seed to get the brackets filled out the way they need to (i.e...populate a region, avoid rematches, etc.) Other "last 4 in teams" Dayton and Tennessee he has as 12s.

So to move from an 11 or 12 to 10 or 9 you'd have to pass up "last 4 bye" teams Xavier (11), St. Joes (11), BYU (11) and Oregon (10). Somewhat of a tall order but doable. I think another win in addition to Wisco and OSU would be needed.

Don't forget about conference tourney upsets (i.e. let's say Wichita loses)....those reduce the number of available slots since Lunardi assume WSU will win their tourney. There's always at least a couple.

Also, keep in mind Lunardi's pretty good at naming the teams (it's not that hard really) but not as good at seeding.

Lastly, the RPI stuff at this point probably doesn't mean as much as simply getting some wins and hoping for no tourney upsets...and for a few of the other bubble teams to choke.
 
Just taking a second to say the following......

Isn't it great that this is being discussed this time of year! :)
 
We are a lock. That win is going to take our RPI up to about 35th. If we take a first loss at Ohio State, I see us only dropping to about 38th. If Purdue got an upset and we lost to them, I still see no us lower than around 43rd.

A 10th seed right now sounds about right. Maybe an 8th or a 9th and maybe we get the shot to end it all for Wichita State.
 




One of the analysts on the Big Ten Network last night didn't think so. He said a win in the first round will ensure a bid. A close loss will probably get us in. But a bad loss could keep us out.

RedRum said:
We are a lock.
Click to expand...
 
Anything for ratings I guess. There is zero chance we don't make it. Keeping us out would be unprecedented from several different angles. High RPI, strong SOS, quality wins, high finish in strong conference, worst case is 9-3 in final 12. If we get blown out the first game on Friday, we can all still sleep easy on selection Sunday.
 



RedRum said:
A few weeks ago I put together a spreadsheet for RPI projections based on what we do going forward. I didn't do the Opp-Opp part of the calculation, but expected it to work slightly in our favor due to Big 10 SOS. Plugging in our record I had us 3 positions lower than the ESPN rating, so it was pretty close. So I thought I would run a few scenarios going forward. In () I will place where those points would rank us if everything stayed the same. However, RPI's for most teams are generally trending downward as win% drops.

Current RPI: .5876 (41st)

Win vs Wisconsin: .5944 (36th); Loss vs Wisconsin .5825 (50th)

Let's take that a little further into the tournament:

Scenario 1:
Win vs Wisconsin, bye, loss vs Ohio State .5898 (40th) or Northwestern .5847 (46th): A win to the next round would go around .5979 (34th)

Scenario 2:
Loss to Wisconsin, win vs NW, win vs Iowa, loss .588(41st)

Scenario 3:
Loss to Wisconsin, bye, win vs Ohio State, loss next round .5866(46th) or bye, win vs Northwestern, loss .5818 (50th)

Scenario 4:
Loss to Wisconsin, win vs NW, loss to Iowa .5794 (52nd)

Scenario 5:
Loss to Wisconsin, bye, loss to Ohio State .5786(53rd) or Northwestern .5735 (54th)

In a nutshell, we beat Wisconsin we are in. If we lose, we are going to be really tight if we don't get past the second round, but if we do we should be fine.

I am also having a hard time deciding if we want the bye or not in the event we lose to Wisconsin.
Click to expand...

If we lost to Wisky, we would not have a bye. In a nutshell, Greg Sharpe said, referring to not having a bye: Hell No! Take the win and take the bye.

My sentiments! :thumbsup: :dancer:
 
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