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Questions for Native and Coronavirus discussion Thread

Almost on cue...

Crappy tests flooding the market due to relaxed rules. Many companies are trying to use this as a way to get easier FDA approval for their pet platform in the future.

The danger of bad tests and relaxing too many rules is the false negative rate giving bad results and allowing people to go out and infect while thinking they are ok. There are strict laws for a reason. Even with strict regulation, LDT’s vary widely in quality.

apple.news

'Crappy' tests to check for past coronavirus infection are flooding the US, lab association says — CNN

Regulatory changes by President Donald Trump's administration have made it easier for companies to flood the US market with "crappy" tests that are supposed to determine whether someone has recovered from coronavirus, according to the CEO of the Association of Public Health Laboratories.
apple.news apple.news
 
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FLAS, I saw an article about someone who had recovered and was now going to donate plasma to aid in the treatment of others using his antibodies, do you think these new antibody tests could be administered by the red cross in an attempt to build this particular bank of blood?
 
Cyberbach said:
FLAS, I saw an article about someone who had recovered and was now going to donate plasma to aid in the treatment of others using his antibodies, do you think these new antibody tests could be administered by the red cross in an attempt to build this particular bank of blood?
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It wont be Red Cross taking the plasma from those folks for those emergency treatments. They will be in the research hospital. Essentially, that is like an emergency “compassionate use” exemption to try and treat the worst cases with recovered plasma. Couldnt even really be a clinical trial at this point.

Begs the question how they are actually screening people donating blood now, however.

Antibody tests are going to be used for a lot of screening and repeat testing, I’m guessing. Again, hope they aren’t missing a lot of positives.
 
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I just figured maybe since the Red Cross is already so organised in blood collection they would be a natural to administer the tests to identify the potential source, couldn't they just coordinate the transfer to the research hospitals or is there a different process? Just looking to reduce redundancy and expedite the process.
 



Cyberbach said:
I just figured maybe since the Red Cross is already so organised in blood collection they would be a natural to administer the tests to identify the potential source, couldn't they just coordinate the transfer to the research hospitals or is there a different process? Just looking to reduce redundancy and expedite the process.
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Honestly, dont know how that works. i saw someone on Twitter offering their plasma to help people and listing blood type.
 
It will be interesting if and when an Ab test becomes available in how it is used and how they decide to identify those that have been exposed and are "most likely" immune. Does everyone have to wear a scarlet "C" if they have had the disease already? Do they get an implant so they can be scanned and "passed".

I know it may sound like science fiction, but there are so many logistical challenges.
 
This disease has a 14 day incubation period supposedly. We are starting our third week of staying at home and social distancing. Pretty soon we will be at a 2x incubation period stay at home order. According to IMEH we have flattened the curve. At the end of the month we will have 3x incubation periods under our belt.

Is there a law of diminishing return to social distancing?
 
The Teddy Roosevelt tested 2,100 sailors and only 150 came back positive. I assume everyone on that floating petri dish has been exposed, how can the positives be so low on that ship?
 




LivinL said:
This disease has a 14 day incubation period supposedly. We are starting our third week of staying at home and social distancing. Pretty soon we will be at a 2x incubation period stay at home order. According to IMEH we have flattened the curve. At the end of the month we will have 3x incubation periods under our belt.

Is there a law of diminishing return to social distancing?
Click to expand...

Congrats! You successfully made it through one 2-week period of isolating. If you go out into public, start the clock over. That’s your guidance, I guess. It’s out there, it’s circling largely undetected in many states. Any exposure is risk.

I’ve been at home for approx 17 days with limited contact to about 5 people total in that time. I’m planning a Costco/Menards /grocery run this week to get through the next 2-3 weeks which will hopefully be the worst in the midwest, presuming we will have a delayed peak and aren't actually seeing the majority of spread yet due to insufficient testing.

If we give up on self-isolating, we risk another huge spike in cases almost immediately, especially where it hasnt peaked. My opinion is that we are still not testing nearly enough to understand who is/isnt infected vs who is “safe” or not and the next 2-3 weeks are key in that. FYI, I’m not planning on doing anything in May at this point, and I hope our company meeting for July is cancelled soon.

“Flattening the curve” is about preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed by cases. It’s not “stay home two weeks and you won’t be exposed if you go out.” The virus is still out there being transmitted, regardless of how long you are in isolation prior.

I hope that helps?
 
LivinL said:
The Teddy Roosevelt tested 2,100 sailors and only 150 came back positive. I assume everyone on that floating petri dish has been exposed, how can the positives be so low on that ship?
Click to expand...

Depends on when the virus was introduced. Could be early? Depends on their hygiene discipline and how they have responded. Depends on how accurate the testing was based on whether they were active infections shedding virus or not. Lots of variables. Given enough time, the infection rate/% would continue to climb. Would be interesting to know if there is a % that doesn’t get infected if exposed, regardless- early estimates were 80% infection by next year.
 
LivinL said:
This disease has a 14 day incubation period supposedly. We are starting our third week of staying at home and social distancing. Pretty soon we will be at a 2x incubation period stay at home order. According to IMEH we have flattened the curve. At the end of the month we will have 3x incubation periods under our belt.

Is there a law of diminishing return to social distancing?
Click to expand...

At some point, a very high percentage of people have to be exposed to the virus. Flattening the curve also prolongs the curve. Unless there is a vaccine or much more is known about the asymptomatic exposed population, there will be spikes in positive cases whenever the social distancing is relaxed or removed. That is just inevitable.
 
I agree, I don't know how we can expect to totally tamp this down until a vaccination finally gets here with stay at home orders. Somehow all of us are going to have to develope immunity. I am all in for evening out the surges to hospitals and ppe usage but I don't think our research community is nimble enough to get a vaccine to us in time.

Our Pharma industry is rock solid and based on ultra conservative practices and our r &ad guys are geniuses, but....they have learned to go slow and deliberate and they don't shift gears easily.


I have heard Dr. Fauci say that further down the curve we will have better therapeutics, I wonder if he was referring to the plasma transfusions? There is certainly a mixed opinion on hydrocloriquin.

After this first surge is over I will be ready for some socializing and will never go on zoom again.
 



Went to the grocery store early this morning, with mask and gloves. I now understand why all those kids on TV shows like the Waltons or Little House on the Prairie were so excited to be able to go to town.

Here's how I think it will go down. At the end of April if things keep going like they are, Trump will tell the governors of each state to make their own decisions on how far to relax their regulations, figuring some states will be able to relax more then others. I then see an increase in cases again, and I say that because social distancing was not intended to stop the virus, it was designed to flatten the curve, nothing more. There is no vaccine, and there is no way to keep everyone isolated until they come up with one. Things will open up some and the numbers should stay low enough because it's been spread out so long, hospitals will be able to handle it.

Now if you're older like me or have health issues, you will have to continue your social distancing to the extent you feel comfortable. That will be a lot stricter for some people and not as strict for others. Each person will have to decide how much risk they will take, just as they decided how much risk they were taking with the standard flu. I'm not saying we don't care or worry about the people in that high risk group that could die if they get the virus, I fit into that group myself, but eventually we have to loosen things up so those that have not gotten it yet will be exposed to it. Isn't that what flattening the curve was all about.
 
FeelLikeAStranger said:
Congrats! You successfully made it through one 2-week period of isolating. If you go out into public, start the clock over. That’s your guidance, I guess. It’s out there, it’s circling largely undetected in many states. Any exposure is risk.

I’ve been at home for approx 17 days with limited contact to about 5 people total in that time. I’m planning a Costco/Menards /grocery run this week to get through the next 2-3 weeks which will hopefully be the worst in the midwest, presuming we will have a delayed peak and aren't actually seeing the majority of spread yet due to insufficient testing.

If we give up on self-isolating, we risk another huge spike in cases almost immediately, especially where it hasnt peaked. My opinion is that we are still not testing nearly enough to understand who is/isnt infected vs who is “safe” or not and the next 2-3 weeks are key in that. FYI, I’m not planning on doing anything in May at this point, and I hope our company meeting for July is cancelled soon.

“Flattening the curve” is about preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed by cases. It’s not “stay home two weeks and you won’t be exposed if you go out.” The virus is still out there being transmitted, regardless of how long you are in isolation prior.

I hope that helps?
Click to expand...

The igg testing will certainly be a huge key to us getting out of this in the best way possible. Hopefully they have a widespread rollout relatively soon.
 

Thoughts on this just released from UT:


A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51%
chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway"
Click to expand...

I've got no frame of reference to evaluate it so I thought I would ask the smart people.
 
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