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Questions for Native and Coronavirus discussion Thread

Nehunter88

Varsity
5 Year Member
In South Kirea, they tested everyone, and any positives resulted in tracing contacts and isolating those contacted people. Not 100% effective, but definitely flattened the curve. That might have worked early, but will not work now in my opinion. people truly should be self isolating and maintaining a physical distance barrier.

That might be an advantage of being in Nebraska. Here with so few cases because they jumped early with social distancing and closing schools, they have been able to trace all but three cases back to it's origin. At the present time the state only has three cases that are community spread and they can't be sure how this person got it. I believe they said 13 of Nebraska's 38 cases all trace back to the same person. 33 or 34 of our 38 cases are all in the same county. I think Nebraska's numbers show isolation and jumping on it early can make a difference. Washington, California, and New York didn't really have a chance to do that, and now for them it's probably too late.

I could see something that stops state to state travel, especially out of the hot zones being effective, but boy would people scream about it.

As for me I have a 35 day supply of beer, so I know I'm good for that long.
 
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Californication

Varsity
15 Year Member
This is definitely showing that the move over the last 100 years away from rural living and towards city living does not help protecting against the spread of disease. Well over half are in 4 states with very large cities. Small towns are already meeting the definition of social distancing. When is the last time you went to a cafe in Brady or Odessa or any of the other 100 towns in NE and there was more than 5 or ten people? Church and county fairs are pretty much the only time you see large gatherings in small towns.
I have read a lot about what is going to hit rural America. Living in the city does concentrate people. However, rural America tends to have an older population with limited access to healthcare. In addition, in many articles like the one linked, they seem to have skepticism about the pandemic. This all leads me to believe that while large cities have concentrated outbreaks, rural America will suffer very much.
My mother in law is 86 and has been acting as if nothing is happening, going to the post office, store, church, book club, etc Additionally, her grandson and family live with her and they and their six kids just flew to NC and back to attend a giant wedding. I pray my worst fears arent realized.

 
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Huskerthom

All Big 10
5 Year Member
I have read a lot about what is going to hit rural America. Living in the city does concentrate people. However, rural America tends to have an older population with limited access to healthcare. In addition, in many articles like the one linked, they seem to have skepticism about the pandemic. This all leads me to believe that while large cities have concentrated outbreaks, rural America will suffer very much.
My mother in law is 86 and has been acting as if nothing is happening, going to the post office, store, church, book club, etc Additionally, her grandson and family live with her and they and their six kids just flew to NC and back to attend a giant wedding. I pray my worst fears arent realized.

Healthcare is moving to the cities because large companies are controlling the money for healthcare. If enough people moved back so would doctors. Our kids are being told that living in a city is a way to make easier money. Why work hard on the farm when you can sit behind a desk all day? After this some may choose to social isolate more frequently. If they do doctors will follow.
 

Californication

Varsity
15 Year Member
It is a complex dynamic. There are not enough jobs to support people, that is why they leave, imo. If there were good jobs, people would be there. Big companies do shut hospitals due to lack of profit, but also Drs do not come unless they are bribed because they can't pay off their loans living and practicing in rural America. Finally farm work isn't the only hard work. That is a midwest bias that I hate.
 
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Huskerwisdom

Red Shirt
2 Year Member
In South Kirea, they tested everyone, and any positives resulted in tracing contacts and isolating those contacted people. Not 100% effective, but definitely flattened the curve. That might have worked early, but will not work now in my opinion. people truly should be self isolating and maintaining a physical distance barrier.

S Korea had some advantages over us in that their big outbreak was localized and mostly related to the church/cult so that they could trace contacts pretty quickly. They only tested just over 250K (about 1/2 of 1%) of the population, though. While they are moving ahead with testing as well, it's not like they were able to do testing that would give them a really bigger picture view.

Hopefully we get there. I'm thinking we should think of these as regional outbreaks and act as if NY is equivalent to the outbreak in S., Korea, for instance, and manage from there. Our country wide view skews things in strange ways, I'm guessing
 

The_CornTorch

Scout Team
5 Year Member
@Native – case rate is currently doubling at 2 days. Fair to say a bad trend at this point in time?


Screen Shot 2020-03-21 at 7.28.28 PM.png
 
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CrabHusker

Stifling Dissent Since 1965
5 Year Member
@Native – case rate is currently doubling at 2 days. Fair to say a bad trend at this point in time?


View attachment 39860

No.

Fair to say they're testing more people at this time.

Additional infected was always the end result. When we're testing so few early on, the numbers are bound to be low. I suspect we've got millions infected today, but the test results show 19,000 cases. This won't stop growing and it's not a 100% correlation with the spread of the virus. Not even close.
 

The_CornTorch

Scout Team
5 Year Member
No.

Fair to say they're testing more people at this time.

Additional infected was always the end result. When we're testing so few early on, the numbers are bound to be low. I suspect we've got millions infected today, but the test results show 19,000 cases. This won't stop growing and it's not a 100% correlation with the spread of the virus. Not even close.

So you're saying that the doubling rate of cases might not in fact be 2 days due to the lack of testing.

But if that's the case – there's a whole bunch of infected cases that are flying below the radar of testing – then don't we have to assume that a 2 day doubling rate might represent the floor, not the ceiling?

Either way, not a great trend line.
 

The_CornTorch

Scout Team
5 Year Member
So you're saying that the doubling rate of cases might not in fact be 2 days due to the lack of testing.

But if that's the case – there's a whole bunch of infected cases that are flying below the radar of testing – then don't we have to assume that a 2 day doubling rate might represent the floor, not the ceiling?

Either way, not a great trend line.

@CrabHusker – or are you suggesting that as the rate/amount of testing increases, the doubling rate will slow down?

If there's a cohort of unchecked covid cases out there, I'm assuming they'll mimic the same rate of transmission spread as those few cases that fall under testing.
 

jmcsundance

Recruit
I did a random shallow dive into files from long ago and came across Concanavolin A, Phytohemagluttinin and Pokeweed - three mitogens used in our research to stimulate T and B Cells (lymphocytes) from the blood of patients with ovarian cancer. The goal was to get a greater understanding of the compromised nature of the immunodeficient cells. Rather than go into all the details etc. of the research and findings (which frankly has expanded exponentially since when I was involved), I wanted to pass on an optimistic thought for hope as we move forward getting past this - which we will.

Turns out, of course, the work we were doing crossed over. It was found that understanding how the mitogenic effects occur on the cell membranes of the lymphocytes contributed to the creation of antiviral drugs to combat HIV-AIDS.

Further, all three of the mitogenic stimulants mentioned come from plants. Nature has a way of revealing her secrets if we pay attention.

We'll get through all of this. We always have and we always will.
 

Huskerthom

All Big 10
5 Year Member
It is a complex dynamic. There are not enough jobs to support people, that is why they leave, imo. If there were good jobs, people would be there.
Big companies do shut hospitals due to lack of profit, but also Drs do not come unless they are bribed because they can't pay off their loans living and practicing in rural America.
Finally farm work isn't the only hard work. That is a midwest bias that I hate.
So let me take these one at a time.
There are not enough jobs to support people, that is why they leave, imo.
This is I believe one positive to COVID 19. Companies are going to start to see that teleworking is more practical than they thought. Why pay rent or building costs for an office when you can pay people to work at home. I have been doing it for almost ten years now. As companies start to buy into the practicality of it more folks will move to smaller towns. The towns just need internet access.
Big companies do shut hospitals due to lack of profit, but also Drs do not come unless they are bribed because they can't pay off their loans living and practicing in rural America.
True currently but if those towns start to grow again it becomes more profitable. Also talking to some older Doctors some are tired of the managed care model. If they saw some potential they may leave. (this is a guess based on conversations I have seen)
Finally farm work isn't the only hard work. That is a midwest bias that I hate.
I never said it was. There are not many that are comparable though. Construction? Factory work is more boring not sure it is harder? Mining? (also generally a small town job)
For the record I never said it was what I said is. " Why work hard on the farm when you can sit behind a desk all day? " I simply said that is the myth that is told to young people in small towns.
 

Oracle of Lincoln

Junior Varsity
5 Year Member
I have a question for all of the ‘tough-guy’ Coronavirus downplayers.

Are you practicing social distancing on a regular basis?
 

CrabHusker

Stifling Dissent Since 1965
5 Year Member
@CrabHusker – or are you suggesting that as the rate/amount of testing increases, the doubling rate will slow down?

If there's a cohort of unchecked covid cases out there, I'm assuming they'll mimic the same rate of transmission spread as those few cases that fall under testing.

By 'Doubling rate' you're referring to the doubling of infected?

If correct, then no, that's not what I'm suggesting. The positive test results will absolutely increase with more testing. I don't know at what rate, but what I'm saying is the mortality rate (displayed typically as a percentage of infected) will go down. Right now we only have data for the most ill patients. People who're in the hospital or receiving medical care. If the test numbers go up to include anyone with Covid symptoms like we're hearing on the national media, the mortality rate will go down.
 

The_CornTorch

Scout Team
5 Year Member
By 'Doubling rate' you're referring to the doubling of infected?

If correct, then no, that's not what I'm suggesting. The positive test results will absolutely increase with more testing. I don't know at what rate, but what I'm saying is the mortality rate (displayed typically as a percentage of infected) will go down. Right now we only have data for the most ill patients. People who're in the hospital or receiving medical care. If the test numbers go up to include anyone with Covid symptoms like we're hearing on the national media, the mortality rate will go down.

Im talking about doubling rate of confirmed cases. I get you point about mortality rate dropping.
 
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